The No. 7 seed Loyola Marymount Lions (17-14) begin their West Coast Conference Tournament bid with a second round matchup against the No. 11 seed San Diego Toreros (6-26) in Paradise, NV.
San Diego advanced with a dramatic 81-77 victory over Pacific in the first round, whereas LMU was idle.
I’m betting on points aplenty with my San Diego vs. Loyola Marymount predictions and college basketball picks for Friday, March 7.
San Diego vs Loyola Marymount prediction
Who will win San Diego vs Loyola Marymount?
LMU will survive and advance. The Lions haven’t played their best basketball lately but were a vastly superior team for much of the year. They won both regular season meetings against San Diego, including a comfortable 78-62 win on the road. They’re the better team on both ends of the court and are favored for a reason against a San Diego team that has had a miserable campaign.
My best bet
Over 146.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The San Diego Toreros have trended heavily toward the Over to end the year, going 4-0 O/U in its last four games and 6-1 O/U in its last seven. Steve Lavin wants his team to play fast and get into high-scoring games, and his team has executed that style of play lately.
The Toreros rank 14th in adjusted tempo since the start of February (BartTorvik), hucking up shots with reckless abandon and playing little defense. Lavin’s squad is allowing 79 ppg on the year and has been especially beatable lately, allowing 85.4 ppg in their last seven contests.
The Loyola Marymount Lions aren't known for their offensive prowess, but LMU still have the requisite firepower to expose this putrid defense. San Diego sends opposing teams to the line more than just about any other team in the country (362nd in free-throw attempt rate allowed, per Haslametrics) and struggles to grab boards (275th in defensive rebounding percentage at 70.3%), meaning “easy offense” is readily available.
These two teams have tended to play in high-scoring contests against one another, going 8-2 O/U in the last 10 meetings. One of the Unders in that span was in the most recent contest on February 1 when LMU shot just 66% from the stripe and San Diego had a legendarily poor performance from the field (28%).
The efficiency doesn’t necessarily have to be there for this game to hit the Over given the sheer amount of possessions that San Diego wants to have. Lavin is 3-1 O/U in his four appearances in the WCC Tournament and I’m banking on his team’s style of play coming through with one more Over.
San Diego vs Loyola Marymount same-game parlay (SGP)
San Diego +8
Over 146.5
While LMU likely advances to the next round, I’m betting on San Diego keeping things close enough to cover the +8 spread.
The Toreros have been on a mini-heater to end the year, covering four straight games and five of their last six. After not winning a game since the calendar flipped to 2025, they’ve won two in a row.
The run won’t last forever, but it’s clear that something has changed. Considering they had more players (13) miss at least one game than any other team in the country, it seems like Lavin’s squad has finally found some continuity to close the season.
Although the Toreros are 0-12 straight up on the road, they’re 3-0 ATS in their last three games away from home and rank 65th in Haslametrics’ Away From Home Metric — well ahead of LMU (250th). The Lions had some perplexing performances near the end of the year (58-83 loss to Pacific, 78-89 loss at Portland, 61-76 loss at Santa Clara) so it is hard to trust them winning by margin.
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San Diego vs Loyola Marymount odds
San Diego vs Loyola Marymount live odds
San Diego vs Loyola Marymount opening odds
- Spread: San Diego +8 (-110) | Loyola Marymount -8 (-110)
- Moneyline: San Diego +280 | Loyola Marymount -360
- Over/Under: Over 146.5 (-110) | Under 146.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
San Diego vs Loyola Marymount betting trend to know
San Diego and LMU are 8-2 O/U in the last 10 meetings against one another. Find more college basketball betting trends for San Diego vs. Loyola Marymount.
How to watch San Diego vs Loyola Marymount
| Location | Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date | Friday, 3-7-2025 |
| Tip-off | 11:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
San Diego vs Loyola Marymount key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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