It was originally a boxing axiom: Styles make fights. Boxers who take different approaches and styles to a fight inevitably draw out weaknesses in each other and increase the drama. And when the UCLA Bruins meet the Utah State Aggies this evening, their styles will make the fight.
My Utah State vs. UCLA predictions expect the Aggies to hit enough 3-pointers to make things dramatic late.
Read on for my full March Madness picks for this tip that comes at 9:25 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 20.
Who will win Utah State vs UCLA?
As the UCLA offense picked up steam late in the season — adding 1.8 points per 100 possessions since Feb. 1, once adjusting for opponents, per barttorvik.com — it started rattling off wins.
UCLA was 11-6 halfway through January before winning 11 of its last 14 regular-season games.
That included wins against Wisconsin, Oregon and Michigan State, all coming in Pauley Pavilion. Traditionally, Westwood enjoys only a middling homecourt advantage, but perhaps the lengths of Big Ten travel have exaggerated that impact.
There will be no homecourt edge when both teams are in Lexington. If anything, lingering Tennessee fans will get behind the underdog if this game remains tight.
Utah State has gone 4-4 outright as an underdog this season, with two of those losses coming to Colorado State in March. Do not misconstrue those two losses as knocks on the Aggies. Torvik considers the Rams to be the No. 8 team in the country in the last month as they have won 10 straight. Utah State may have simply twice run into an absolute buzzsaw.
UCLA should win, but Utah State will.
Utah State vs UCLA prediction
My best bet: Over 144 (-110 at bet365)
Let’s admit some personal cowardice. Taking this Over is done with a lean toward the Utah State Aggies in mind — even perhaps the Aggies on the moneyline at +185 at bet365. But the combination of the Mountain West’s repeated failures in the NCAA Tournament and San Diego State’s egg-laying on Tuesday have scuttled some of that confidence. So, the Over is chosen to back Utah State while not doing so too loudly.
Utah State’s offense is the best unit in this game. Choose your metric. KenPom considers it to be the 17th-most efficient offense in the country, for this conversation tied with the UCLA Bruins defense. BartTorvik sees that offense as the No. 14 in the country and the No. 12 since Feb. 1, both ahead of UCLA’s defense at No. 18 and No. 28 since Feb. 1.
The Aggies offense hinges heavily on 3-pointers, taking them on 42.3% of field goals this season (No. 97 in the country) and making 35.8% of them (No. 72). Since Feb. 1, Utah State has taken even more threes, chucking from distance on 43.1% of its shots.
The Bruins encourage those shots. Of the 364 teams in Division I, only 28 forced opponents to heave more often. UCLA opponents shot from beyond the arc on 44.8% of their field-goal attempts and 44.9% since Feb. 1. The worrying issue is the Bruins are not insistent on those being bad looks, with opponents hitting 33.2% of their threes against UCLA and 35.0% since Feb. 1. Those are not crippling defensive numbers, but they are far from encouraging.
Utah State shooting that often from deep should yield some points, at which point the Bruins will need to dial up their own attack. They function best in the interior, where Utah State is particularly vulnerable.
On both ends of the court, the offense’s preference is encouraged by the defense. That sounds like an Over.
Utah State vs UCLA same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 144
Utah State +5.5
Utah State first to 20 points
Every leg of this same-game parlay is correlated. Utah State would rather this be a high-scoring matchup, and it should come out aggressively to create that game flow.
Arguably the best team the Aggies faced this season came in mid-December, a 75-68 win against Saint Mary’s as 5.5-point road underdogs. It warrants noting, both Pomeroy and Torvik consider the Gaels defense to be better than the Bruins.
Utah State jumped out to a 17-7 lead after seven minutes, then allowed a brief Saint Mary’s run before notably leading 23-19 after 12.
That same approach would serve the Aggies well tonight, not to mention this SGP.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Utah State vs UCLA odds
Utah State vs UCLA live odds
Utah State vs UCLA opening odds
- Spread: Utah State +4.5 (-110) | UCLA -4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Utah State +175 | UCLA -210
- Over/Under: Over 143.5 (-110) | Under 143.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Utah State vs UCLA betting trend to know
Betting the Utah State moneyline shortly before tip in the eight games in which it was an underdog this season would have yielded a 4-4 record and a 2.2-unit profit. Find more college basketball betting trends for Utah State vs. UCLA.
How to watch Utah State vs UCLA
| Region | Midwest |
| Location | Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY |
| Date | Thursday, 3-20-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Utah State vs UCLA key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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