The non-conference portion of the season is winding down. Still, we have an exciting matchup when the No. 22 ranked Virginia Cavaliers meet the No. 23 Memphis Tigers on Tuesday at FedExForum.
Both programs have found early season success. Virginia has won five straight, while Memphis is riding a three-game winning streak leading up to this hardwood battle.
Please join me as I take a closer look at the college basketball odds with free college basketball picks as I preview Virginia vs Memphis on Tuesday, December 19.
Virginia vs Memphis best odds
Virginia vs Memphis picks and predictions
Tuesday marks a contrast in style of play that will make this contest fun to watch and wager on.
Virginia boasts one of the best defensive-minded teams in the country. They play one of the slowest tempos in the game, are exceptional three-point shooters who also take care of the ball, and boast the second-best defense in the country, according to KenPom.
Memphis plays at one of the fastest tempos in college basketball, is an above-average shooting squad from everywhere, but doesn’t handle the ball well at times with the 30th-ranked KenPom defense.
The Cavaliers are coming off a tough 56-54 home victory over Northeastern in their worst shooting night of the year. They shot an uncharacteristically bad 14% from downtown, 41% from inside the arc, and 54% from the charity stripe. The defense carried the Cavaliers to victory, but they won’t get away with a bad shooting night on Tuesday in their first true road game against Memphis.
The Tigers will be playing its seventh consecutive contest against top-100 KenPom sides. Memphis went 5-2 against those D1 heavyweights but went 4-3-0 ATS in those contests and has scored 79+ in eight of their 10 matchups this season.
Virginia isn’t playing Memphis for grins and giggles. They are going into FedExForum hoping to win this game, and they won’t win by scoring 54 points. The Cavaliers will be forced to play faster than they are used to, but if they take care of the ball like they can and shoot 37% from downtown or better, they’ll be able to score with Memphis.
Memphis has played in difficult games at home and away, and they can get buckets against Virginia. They aren’t great shooters from anywhere, but they are above average from inside and outside the arc, are better offensive rebounders than Virginia, and should get a few second-chance points.
Finally, I like this game to go Over the 131 (-110) point total. We’ll see a faster-paced matchup than the Hoos would like, but we should expect Virginia to bounce back offensively from their shooting woes against a Memphis defense that would rather score points. Memphis likes to run and gun, and they’ll have some success with that as the Tigers are the fastest team Virginia has played thus far.
My best bet: Over 131 (-110 at DraftKings)
Virginia vs Memphis same-game parlay
Over 131
Memphis -3
Tuesday night’s contest should exceed the total. I fully expect Virginia to score points; they’ll need at least 68 points to win. They have exceeded that number twice against top-100 KenPom programs and could do so against a somewhat shaky Memphis defense.
How this fits with the Memphis -3 is simple to me. Memphis is 8-2, scoring 79 points or better in each of those victories. Virginia is playing its first true road game of the season, and I suspect the outcome will be decided at the charity stripe. Virginia is one of the worst free throw shooting teams nationally, facing a Memphis side draining 71% from the stripe. The Tigers will make their free throws down the stretch and cover the spread.
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Virginia vs Memphis spread and Over/Under analysis
These teams are well-coached, and the contrasting play styles should be fun to watch.
Memphis is -152 on the moneyline at FanDuel to win this game, which might be a good bet to make. Hopefully, some money comes in on Virginia and the odds decrease. If something around -140 is available, and that could indeed be the case, then that would be a better wager to stake.
Caesars offers the best number (-2.5) for Memphis spread bettors, and the -2.5 (-110) is a go for me. I expect Memphis to win this game, and Caesars offers the best number. I don’t expect the total to exceed -3.5, and -2.5 is a good number.
Conversely, Virginia bettors can get +3 (-110) can find +3 (-110) at DraftKings, and if you believe a poor free throw shooting Cavaliers side can cover in their first true away game, then have at because that might be the best you’ll find.
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Virginia vs Memphis betting trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in the Memphis Tigers last four home games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Virginia vs. Memphis.
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Virginia vs Memphis game info
| Location: | FedExForum, Memphis, TN |
| Date: | Tuesday, December 19, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Virginia vs Memphis key injuries
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