The Alabama Crimson Tide visiting the LSU Tigers on a Saturday night in Death Valley is peak college football on its own. Now, throw in the fact that this is essentially an elimination game for the 12-team College Football Playoff, and we have gone nuclear.
These SEC rivals enter this game with matching 6-2 records and a third loss would likely sink the loser’s season and my Alabama vs. LSU predictions break down why I like the Bayou Bengals as home dogs.
Check out my college football picks for this massive SEC showdown below.
Alabama vs LSU prediction and best bet
My best bet
LSU moneyline (+120 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
It’s pretty clear that people around Tuscaloosa are unhappy with the idea their season could over by early November. But that’s exactly what’s at stake when the Alabama Crimson Tide head to what should be a raucous Death Valley to take on the LSU Tigers on Saturday night.
The first season of the Kalen DeBoer era at Alabama has been wrought with inconsistency. The Crimson Tide were flying after their big win against Georgia but followed that up with a stunning loss to Vanderbilt and then fell to Tennessee.
Even last week’s 34-0 win over Missouri left something to be desired. That game was much closer until Tigers quarterback Brady Cook got hurt and then Bama took over.
Quarterback Jalen Milroe has been solid, but the Crimson Tide offense still relies too heavily on explosive plays and they aren’t getting enough out of the run game, particularly when it isn’t Milroe running and the Tide now ranks 65th in success rate.
We’ve also seen the defense struggle. You can run on this Crimson Tide defense that ranks 57th in success rate. They likely won’t have to worry about that against this LSU offense, however, Bama also has struggled to create pressure in the pass rush ranking 56th in sack rate and the Alabama secondary, which runs a lot of man coverage, can get burned when they don’t get pressure.
Not pressuring Garrett Nussmeier will be a problem.
Now, the Bayou Bengals are coming off a tough loss. A 38-23 defeated handed to them by Texas A&M at Kyle Field, snapping their six-game winning streak.
But remember, LSU was winning that game late into the third quarter, before turnovers in the form of three second-half Nussmeier interceptions ended up being the difference in that game.
When Nussmeier eliminates those mistakes, this Tigers passing attack is tough to slow down. LSU ranks 10th in offensive success rate on dropbacks and ninth in EPA/dropback. If the LSU offensive line, which is much better in pass protection, holds up then Nussmeier will have an opportunity to pick apart this Alabama secondary.
This is Death Valley. At Night. With no Nick Saban on the opposite sideline. Give me the Tigers on the moneyline. They win this outright and end Alabama’s season.
Alabama vs LSU same-game parlay (SGP)
LSU moneyline
Ryan Williams Anytime TD
Aaron Anderson Anytime TD
I like Garrett Nussmeier to win the battle with Jalen Milroe and earn his team the victory in this massive SEC matchup but I also think we’ll see some star wideouts shine under the bright lights in Death Valley.
This just feels like another game where Ryan Williams will try to put the offense on his back and do something crazy. The Alabama true freshman wideout has 702 yards and seven touchdowns on 35 catches this season. He’s found the end zone in all of Alabama’s biggest games including Georgia, Vanderbilt and Tennessee. He’ll score again on Saturday night.
For LSU, I really like what I’ve seen from Aaron Anderson as the season has gone along. He is the Tigers big-play threat and has at least 73 yards in five of his last six games. He’s also scored in three of his last four. Let’s add Anderson to make that four of five for a nice little payout.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Alabama vs LSU odds
Alabama vs LSU live odds
Alabama vs LSU opening odds
- Alabama vs. LSU spread: LSU +2.5
- Alabama vs. LSU moneyline: Alabama -135, LSU +115
- Alabama vs. LSU Over/Under: 58.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Alabama vs LSU spread and Over/Under analysis
- LSU opened this SEC clash as 2.5-point home underdogs and the Bayou Bengals are even getting a full field goal at some sportsbooks as of Friday afternoon.
- Neither team has been a great bet this season with Alabama going 4-4 ATS and LSU at 3-5.
- The total hit the board at 58.5 and that's where it remains to this point.
- I would expect this number to rise and I would lean that way as well. Prior to the shoutout of Missour, Alabama was surrenduring 30.8 points per game in SEC play. While LSU's defense is improving, they still rank 68th in success rate.
Alabama vs LSU betting trend to know
Alabama has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games for +4.60 Units and a 32% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Alabama vs LSU.
Alabama vs LSU game info
| Location: | Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-9, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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