Alabama vs Wisconsin Player Props & Best Bets: Milroe Runs Wild at Camp Randall

Prop bet #1: Will Pauling Over 47.5 receiving yards

-115 at BetMGM

If there’s one thing we know about Wisconsin Badgers offensive coordinator Phil Longo’s attack, it’s that he loves utilizing the slot receiver. That rang true in 2023 when Will Pauling recorded 74 catches for 837 yards and six touchdowns, doubling up the next-closest Wisconsin pass-catcher in receptions and tripling them in touchdowns. 

Not convinced by one year’s worth of data? How about when North Carolina slot receiver Josh Downs caught 94 passes for 1,029 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2022? Or when he notched 98 receptions for 1,273 yards and eight scores the year prior? 

You can go back a little further for evidence, such as Dazz Newsome’s 947 yards and eight scores for the Tar Heels in 2019 or A.J. Brown’s 1,253 yards and 11 scores for Mississippi in 2017. 

Pauling faces an Alabama Crimson Tide defense that's performed well in the box score but is still littered with question marks. The secondary is giving playing time to a few different freshmen after losing two First-Team All-SEC guys and one second-teamer from a year ago. 

There were South Florida wide receivers running wide open a week ago but their quarterback Byrum Brown was unable to connect. Wisconsin will have some openings to find Pauling in this matchup — it’s just all about capitalizing on opportunities. 

The redshirt junior has eight more targets (18) than any other player in this game, for either squad. He’ll be needed in this matchup with his team listed at 16.5-point underdogs at BetMGM, so expect another healthy dose of targets.

Prop bet #2: Jalen Milroe Over 46.5 rushing yards

-115 at BetMGM

Wisconsin doesn’t face many true dual threats in the quarterback wasteland that is the Big Ten. A year ago, they played two quarterbacks who I'd qualify as possessing an average ability to run the football, Illinois’ Luke Altmyer and Nebraska’s Chubba Purdy, and they both reached the century mark on the ground. 

Altmyer rushed 16 times for 100 yards while Purdy carried 14 times for 105 and a score. If that seems like an outlier performance for both quarterbacks, that’s because it is. 

It was a career-high rushing performance for both signal callers, neither of whom are known as unstoppable when the ball's in their hands. Altmyer has never rushed for more than 70 yards in any of his other 19 career appearances while Purdy’s previous career-best rushing total was just 54 yards. 

Those are ominous numbers going into a matchup with a truly elite rushing quarterback in Jalen Milroe. He ranked second among returning quarterbacks in PFF’s rushing grade (86.0) a year ago while averaging 3.6 yards after contact per attempt. 

Wisconsin’s defense isn’t the impenetrable wall of yesteryear, ranking 86th in PFF’s rush defense metric (70.6). That’s hardly a surprise considering the defensive line was considered a weakness heading into the year, a problem that was exacerbated by senior James Thompson Jr.’s injury late in Fall camp. 

To add insult to injury, the Badgers will be without their defensive leader for the first half after linebacker Jake Chaney was ejected for targeting in the third quarter of last week’s trudging 27-13 victory over South Dakota.

Prop bet #3: Justice Haynes Over 50.5 rushing yards

-115 at BetMGM

Alabama is going with a two-headed monster approach in the backfield this season with junior Jam Miller and sophomore Justice Haynes expected to have a near-even split with the workload.

Haynes was a blue-chip recruit rated as the third-best running back in his class. He’s expected to play a big role this season and has looked the part early, taking 17 carries for 148 yards (8.7 yards per carry) and two touchdowns.

He ripped off an 85-yard touchdown run against Western Kentucky in the opener, marking the Tide’s longest scoring play since 2021, per 247. The precocious ball carrier found himself celebrating in the endzone again in Week 2 with a 29-yard rush against USF. 

The books are letting recency bias creep into their player prop lines for the Alabama backfield. It was Miller who had the bigger day a week ago with 15 carries for 140 yards and a touchdown, so he’s the one whose odds have been inflated for Week 3. 

Haynes was right behind him with 13 opportunities, however, and it was Haynes who had the bigger Week 1 with 102 yards and a score compared to 54 yards and a score for Miller. Any noticeable discrepancy in the two’s props is a pricing mistake, and that’s exactly what we have against Wisconsin. 

Jam Miller’s rushing yardage prop is set at 68.5 over at BetMGM while Haynes’ is set at 50.5. That’s inaccurate pricing, as the near-equal opportunity share between the two does not warrant an 18-yard difference.

I’ve already established that I don’t handicap Wisconsin as an elite rush defense, so this qualifies as a quality matchup for Haynes.