Just as important as making money in gambling is not losing money in gambling. Just as important as finding value to bet on is recognizing when there is no value to bet on. Just as important as winning a bet in September is not losing a bet in November.
Lines are sharper late in the season than early in the season for our college football picks. Sportsbooks have more data points.
And at that point, it is vital to remember to not force the action. If there is not as much value in the market, then you should not have as many bets on the line.
Remember Gambling 101 and don't feel compelled to force bets because it is a loaded Saturday of games.
College football betting news for Week 13
- Genuine Playoff Implications
- Now or Never, Nebraska
- Bonus Bet from Douglas
- A Bet for Every Saturday Window
- Tuesday pod recap
- Saturday pod teaser
Douglas's CFB news and notes
Genuine Playoff Implications
Let’s discuss the Big 12’s path to the Playoff. Someone will win the Big 12. Someone has to. That is how playing games works.
For simplicity’s sake, assume it is one of No. 14 BYU, No. 16 Colorado, or No. 21 Arizona State.
That champion might not get a first-round bye, not with No. 12 Boise State outpacing them. But the winner of this weekend’s BYU vs. Arizona State game could have a path to jumping Boise State.
It would have earned a Top-25 win with another one on the horizon in the Big 12 title game, be it against Colorado, Iowa State, or a rematch.
My adjusted bracket, altered by last night's rankings.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 20, 2024
We now finally know the committee's order of Mississippi-Georgia-Tennessee.
via @Covers: https://t.co/qWXPC4Gjku https://t.co/FcGtNHwHUt pic.twitter.com/InYH47q51C
Meanwhile, Boise State would be beating Wyoming, Oregon State, and, at best, No. 24 UNLV.
Would two Top-25 wins be enough to justify pushing the Big 12 champion above Boise State? Possibly.
To help that cause, Big 12 fans should be cheering for San Jose State on Friday and Colorado State on Saturday. If one of them wins, then UNLV’s chances of making the Big 12 title game dwindle, taking away a potential quality win from Boise State.
Yes, this is to imply that Colorado State at Fresno State on Saturday night has genuine Playoff implications, if only in that it could alter who the fourth highest-ranked conference champion is in a couple of weeks.
Now or Never, Nebraska
It is a trivial storyline, but it has become such a comedy. Hey Nebraska, can you get bowl-eligible?
For anyone who has forgotten, the Cornhuskers began this season 5-1 and have now lost five straight. A year ago, they reached 5-3 before ending the season on a four-game losing streak to miss a bowl. Worse yet, they lost those four games by three points each aside from the one they lost in overtime.
Nebraska has gone 1-8 in one-score games in two seasons under Matt Rhule, continuing the absurd Scott Frost trend that went 2-12 in the two years prior.
The Cornhuskers now host 5-5 Wisconsin as a one-point favorite. This will be the best chance at bowl eligibility, given Iowa should be a two-score favorite on Black Friday.
Does it matter if the Cornhuskers make a bowl game? No, not really.
Bonus Bet from Douglas
The obvious bet here has been Kentucky at +20.5, but do not disregard the Under in this look-ahead moment. This spread could have been as high as -24.5, so the sportsbooks have recognized Texas is likely to be already thinking about Texas A&M, as well as that this is a sweet spot for Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops.
But have they properly adjusted the total?
In the last five contests that the Wildcats have been underdogs of at least 15.5 points, the Under has cashed four times. In the dozen total instances since 2016, the Under has cashed on eight occasions.
And when those Unders come home, they fall short of their respective totals by an average of 18.25 points.
Stoops and Kentucky drag top-tier opponents into the mud, shortening the game by removing explosive plays. It rarely yields outright wins, but it keeps them in contact and the games low-scoring.
As aggressive as Texas’s offense is, head coach Steve Sarkisian is not going to show anything new for Texas A&M to study before next week’s SEC title play-in. He should oblige Stoops’s habit of slowing down these games.
🏈Bonus Bet from Douglas: Kentucky vs. Texas Under 47 (-108 at DraftKings)🏈
A Bet for Every Saturday Window
You do not need to always have a bet down. You shouldn’t. You should bet only when you see clear value. But if you insist on having at least one piece of action for every moment of Saturday...
12:00 ET — Indiana vs. Ohio State Under 53 (-112 at DraftKings as of Friday afternoon)
3:30 ET — Texas Tech -4.5 at Oklahoma State (-110 at BetMGM)
7:00 ET — Notre Dame -14 vs. Army (-112 at DraftKings)
Army vs. Notre Dame is a matchup of strength vs. strength when Army finds a rhythm.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 20, 2024
Monotony vs. disruption
No. 2 offensive success rate vs. No. 2 defensive success rate.
No. 14 in quality drive rate vs. No. 1 in stopping quality drives.
(graph via @statsowar/@NCAAInsiders.) pic.twitter.com/uJhj7N9kkF
After Dark — Colorado State moneyline at Fresno State (+135 at BetMGM)
That last bet has not been one I have made publicly anywhere yet. Not publicly or even personally. Again, do not force action simply because a game is on.
But this bet has been considered for most of the week. Colorado State runs a lot, 13.8% more often than the average team would in a given game state, per cfb-graphs. Fresno State is better defending the pass than the run. That needs to be the Bulldogs’ worry, as their defensive strength does not match up with the Rams’ offensive preference.
If Colorado State was out of the Mountain West race, maybe there would be an argument for Fresno State fighting for its bowl hopes at 5-5. That would be quite the recovery for the Bulldogs after head coach Jeff Tedford’s abrupt retirement due to health concerns in the preseason.
However, the Rams have plenty to play for.
College Football 134 Tuesday recap
“College Football 134” records twice a week for a pile of reasons. One of them is to try to give you a headstart on some weekend lines. Giving out Texas Tech at -3.5 might have seemed like a throwaway in a meaningless Big 12 game, but with that number now at -4.5, there was clearly value in that early-week choice.
There is value to be had in subscribing and listening to that Tuesday episode as it hits your feeds on Tuesday nights or perhaps on your Wednesday morning commute.
⚡️Listen to Tuesday's episode of the Covers 134 pod here⚡️
LIVE on Saturday at 9 a.m. ET
There is not a question Douglas Farmer and Andrew Caley would not answer during the Saturday morning live show. All you have to do is ask it. Preferably, it is about college football. Curious about SEC tiebreakers? Have at ‘em. Wondering if Duke can upset Virginia Tech? That makes two of us. If you want to ask for life advice, what’s the worst that can happen?
Now it feels like a mug of Hamm's night. Cheers.
Check out the College Football 134 podcast Saturday pregame show at 9 a.m. ET on the Covers YouTube channel.
Not intended for use in MA.
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