The first weekend of October is not usually ripe timing for an influx of idle weeks, but more than a quarter of FBS is indeed on the couch this weekend. This Saturday, there are only 43 college football games at the highest level.
It is a bit of a buzzkill, but it is also an added chance at value in making college football picks. Even if you are not working with seven screens on Saturday, you should be able to genuinely absorb a greater percentage of the day’s action rather than relying on headlines. What you glean can be quickly applied to Sunday’s opening lines to get you the best value of the week.
Turn the downside into a positive and make this longest college football season also your most successful.
College football betting news for Week 6
- No Genuine Playoff Implications
- Late-Week Line Moves
- Bonus Bets From Douglas
- Bonus Bets From Douglas part ii
- A Bet for Every Saturday Window
- Under Wonderings
- Ask, and Ye Shall Receive
Douglas's CFB news and notes
No Genuine Playoff Implications
That downside extends to the biggest games this weekend, but that is not solely a result of there being a few extra days between Labor Day and Thanksgiving this year. (There are 87 days between the two holidays this year, compared to 80 in each of the past four years. This quirk pops up twice a decade.)
There are less anticipated weekends on the schedule every year, and they can usually be tied to specific teams. When realizing there is no game this weekend with genuine College Football Playoff implications for both teams, do not fault the calendar or schedulemakers. Instead …
… Fault Texas A&M for hardly looking convincing in a single FBS win this season. Slipping past Bowling Green and Arkansas by less than a touchdown each is not the mark of a Playoff contender. Frankly, the same can be said of Missouri winning by less than a touchdown at home against each of Boston College and Vanderbilt.
… Fault Iowa for losing to Iowa State. Now a loss in the Big Ten will knock the Hawkeyes out of Playoff contention given the subsequent likelihood they’d lose in the Big Ten title game if they were even so fortunate to make it.
… Also fault Florida State for its one win. What, the Seminoles couldn’t lose to Cal and give us an unbeaten ACC matchup late on Saturday in Berkeley against Miami?
Late-Week Line Moves
The college football gambling market is most active on Sunday afternoons, with opening lines moving by a field goal and some totals moving by more than that. This has always been the case and is why assessing as much of Saturday as possible before Sunday’s sunrise is such an edge in this gambit.
Then some hooks come or go during the week. Again, that has how it has always been. If looking at North Carolina +2.5 most of the week but wanting the full field goal, +3 did indeed show up on the board as the week progressed, though then returning to +2.5. Such diligence has often provided another edge in this hobby.
But lately the end of the week has spurred more movement than usual.
Bud Elliott noticed it in Purdue falling to +12.5 from +13.5 or +14 all week at Wisconsin, and in Louisiana-Monroe dropping to +15.5 from a week of +17.5 at James Madison, among others. Bud effectively posited that the tails of the bell curve of talent on rosters have gotten shorter, and when betting limits rise on Thursdays, the biggest money in college football gambling is targeting that thicker glut of the bell curve.
a lot of ugly dogs. Air Force +10, Purdue +14, ULM +17, Iowa +19.5, UMass +17, Auburn +23. This is basically them saying "these teams are not THAT bad and the opponent cannot put together enough to destroy them."
— Bud Elliott (@BudElliott3) October 4, 2024
Two thoughts come from this new trend. First of all, remember it moving forward. If on the fence about betting a hefty favorite, keep a closer eye on that line on Thursday evening and Friday morning. It may move your direction.
Second of all, there is value in this regard this week…
Bonus Bet from Douglas
Before the first lines hit the market on Sunday, a legal pad on this desk was hoping to see Ohio State 17.5. Quick math suggested the Buckeyes should be 14.5-point favorites on a neutral field. In the Horseshoe, -17.5 seemed reasonable, and yours truly believes Ohio State has yet to hit the proverbial gas pedal this season.
Then the line opened at -20. It climbed to -20.5 by Sunday evening, hanging at -19.5 most of the week. But this newfound late-week line movement has opened a window here. Thursday night saw -18.5, and Friday morning has provided -18.
Sunday’s initial want has become borderline reality.
The Buckeyes have a dominant pass defense that the Hawkeyes will avoid because Kirk Ferentz is allergic to putting the ball in the air no matter who he faces. The coming problem for Iowa is that it does not run the ball well enough to stay in contact with Ohio State.
The Buckeyes’ offense is too lethal for the Hawkeyes’ usual nonsense. The bell curve of talent on college football rosters may be thicker these days, but the difference between Ohio State and Iowa is as it has always been. In fact, this season it is greater.
Away from home, the Hawkeyes’ usual nonsense doesn’t work as well. It won’t work at all this weekend.
🏈Bonus Bet from Douglas: Ohio State -18 (-110 at Caesars)🏈
Bonus Bet from Douglas, pt. ii
Another late-week move may have simply been a late-week move. North Carolina State had been a 5.5-point favorite all week at home against Wake Forest, only to fall on Thursday to -4.
If that had moved from -5.5 to -4.5, it would have meant little. Who cares about the number five, aside from Lou Bega?
But moving to -4? That is a key number. And anytime a defense is as wretched as the Demon Deacons’, taking a moderate home team is a quick decision at -4. Any Wake Forest support would be inspired by a mundane offense, one that chips away small play by small play, unable to break explosive ones.
That approach eventually fails, and with the Wolfpack’s decent defense, the Deacons’ plodding approach will fail frequently.
🏈Bonus Bet from Douglas: North Carolina State -4 (-105 at Caesars)🏈
A Bet for Every Saturday Window
You do not need to always have a bet down. You shouldn’t. You should bet only when you see clear value. But if you insist on having at least one piece of action for every moment of Saturday …
12:00 ET — Pittsburgh -2.5 at North Carolina (-110 at Caesars as of Friday afternoon)
3:30 ET — Georgia -22.5 vs. Auburn (-108 at FanDuel)
7:30 ET — Tennessee -13.5 at Arkansas (-115 at BetMGM)
The Tennessee Volunteers have been the talk of College Football, recording a remarkable point differential of +188 through four games.@Covers_Caley gives his thoughts on whether he feels they can continue this dominance against the Arkansas Razorbacks.
— Covers (@Covers) October 4, 2024
Presented by @BetMGM pic.twitter.com/RDSO0soo41
After Dark — Let’s reiterate, you do not need to always have a bet down. You shouldn’t. You should bet only when you see clear value. There are just two late-night FBS games this weekend. There are not even any FCS opportunities to exploit. This elongated college football season costs us again.
But if absolutely insistent on having at least one piece of action for Saturday night, perhaps consider Texas Tech +6.5 at Arizona (-110 at BetMGM) based solely on this logic …
Haven't updated this in a while.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 4, 2024
Nine programs hired a head coach in mid-January or later, timing that can and will compromise a roster in the transfer portal era.
Those nine teams are 12-20 against the spread vs. FBS teams this season. Only San Jose State (3-0) is above .500. https://t.co/NaUR9cdBmk
Under Wonderings
“College Football 134” records twice a week for a pile of reasons. One of them is to try to give you a headstart on some weekend lines. Another is to drive conversation. Somehow, the concept of a Service Academy Under bet has become a contentious one.
One more time, let's run through the different opinions about service academy Unders, as illustrated by Navy at Air Force this weekend.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 4, 2024
Starting with @Covers_Caley's passion.
He's right, this trend is too thorough to dismiss. https://t.co/FkObbXaSgx
The total has spiked to 37 as the week has gone along, a surprise, but not a wild one given how successful Navy’s offense has been this season. But here is a fact for you that goes well beyond service academy Unders: Since 2013, college football games with totals of 38 or lower have gone Under their total 58.0% of the time (39-54-1). Even if you remove service academy matchups from that count, it is 55.3% (38-47).
There is value to be had to subscribing and listening to that Tuesday episode as it hits your feeds on Tuesday nights or perhaps on your Wednesday morning commute
⚡️Listen to Tuesday's episode of the College Football 134 pod here⚡️
Ask, and Ye Shall Receive
There is not a question Douglas Farmer and Andrew Caley would not answer during the Saturday morning live show. All you have to do is ask it. Preferably, it is about college football. Curious about Temple vs. UConn? Have at ‘em. Wondering about SMU’s revived offense? Great. If you want to ask for life advice, what’s the worst that happens? Cheers.
Check out the College Football 134 podcast Saturday pregame show at 9 a.m. ET on the Covers YouTube channel.
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