Sports bettors should know better. We factor in homefield advantage for a reason. It is supposed to be harder to win on the road. And yet, the Ohio State Buckeyes’ loss to the Oregon Ducks will encourage some folks to emphasize a misguided Big Ten trend about time-zone travel.
These college football teams make these trips from Columbus to Eugene, or Minneapolis to Los Angeles, or College Station to Los Angeles with no priority aside from the game. The flight is a bit longer, but nothing else about the weekend is any different than a usual road game.
Ohio State kicked off at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday night, the same time as the Buckeyes do plenty in a given season. They ate the same amount of time beforehand, they slept the night beforehand, etc. Blackout curtains exist in hotel rooms for a reason.
It is supposed to be hard to win on the road, especially in college football, where the atmospheres are less corporate and more intimate than the Sunday version of our sport. It is supposed to be hard to win on the road, especially against a top-five foe. It is supposed to be hard to win on the road, so let’s do a better job of applauding those who do and not overreact when others do not.
College football Week 7 things you should not overreact to
Do not overreact to Ohio State’s 32-31 loss at Oregon, even if the Buckeyes were field-goal favorites.
Both teams played sloppily. The Oregon Ducks’ bold choice to risk an onside kick early in the second quarter resulted in a field goal. In a one-point win, obviously that mattered immensely.
Ohio State looked more balanced, perhaps why Oregon head coach Dan Lanning resorted to that line-drive kickoff. And yes, to the NBC broadcast crew, the Ducks absolutely meant to send that kick directly at an unsuspecting Buckeye.
If one team or the other had dominated or even simply controlled the fourth quarter, a larger conclusion could be drawn. But at this moment, do not overreact to the result.
Ohio State still has a direct path to the Big Ten Championship game, facing fellow conference-unbeaten Penn State and Indiana yet this season. The Buckeyes thus still have a direct path to a first-round bye in the 12-team College Football Playoff. We should all hope we can be so blessed as to watch Ohio State and Oregon meet again, that time on a neutral field.
Therein lies the biggest reason not to overreact to this result. Yes, the Buckeyes’ losing cost plenty of us our bets, including yours truly. But they would still be favored next week on a neutral field, probably favored by close to a touchdown.
Douglas' advice: It is supposed to be hard to win on the road, something Ohio State was just reminded of. That reminder should pay a benefit in three weeks in Happy Valley.
Do not overreact to those who insist traveling across multiple time zones is the reason Ohio State lost.
This became a common talking point late in the week: Big Ten teams that travel from the Central or Eastern time zones to the Pacific Coast for conference games, or vice versa, were just 1-8 thus far. After this weekend, they are just 3-10, oh no.
Favorites in those games are 10-3 straight-up. This has been nothing but a scheduling fluke.
The teams traveling are admittedly 4-9 against the spread. But that has not been the stat so gladly shared. Saying those teams are 3-10 outright is dismissing the loud fact that it is supposed to be harder to win on the road.
Furthermore, that number should be expected to even out. Combine this year’s ACC moments of such travel with the last two years of Conference USA moments. Those schools have gone 6-6 ATS and 5-7 outright. The favorites are 9-3 outright.
That 9-3 outright is rather similar to the Big Ten’s 10-3, right? Do you know why?
Because it is supposed to be harder to win on the road.
Douglas' advice: All that said, there might be something to learn if we look closer at the Big Ten trend …
Do overreact to USC’s third loss, the earliest of Lincoln Riley’s career.
If the Big Ten favorites are 10-3 outright in those Central/Eastern-to-Pacific moments, or vice versa, care to guess two of the losses? The third is obviously Saturday’s Ohio State defeat.
The first two upsets were both USC on the road, a four-point favorite at Michigan and a 9.5-point favorite at Minnesota. Perhaps some of this Big Ten trend is the result of USC simply being a disappointment. What can we do with that?
We can watch Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley. Let’s exclude the 2020 season from this conversation for a pile of obvious reasons.
In the other six full seasons of Riley’s head coaching career, he has never suffered a second loss before the eighth game of the season. Before last year, he had never suffered a second loss before the regular-season finale. Riley reached the postseason with just one loss in four of his first five seasons as a head coach, 2020 still excluded.
When those big-picture hopes fell apart last year, Riley could not stop the entire season shattering. USC started the year 6-0 and ending the regular season at 7-5. Now, those Trojans were always disappointing, going 2-4 against the spread even while unbeaten, then shuffling to 3-9 ATS in the entire regular season. But it should still be recognized that Riley never righted the descent.
At 3-3 and 1-3 in the Big Ten, all USC dreams are again wrecked. The Trojans may be 4-2 ATS, but there is logic to expecting Riley to again lose control of this ship.
Douglas' advice: USC heads to Maryland next weekend, a coast-to-coast flight. The Trojans should be favored by at least four points, some lookahead lines north of a touchdown. If +7 is available, take it, as it should not last long. The Terrapins are not as bad as they looked on Friday, while Riley may not be the type of coach who can hold a locker room together after multiple losses. He quite literally never has pulled that off, only ever needing to last season.
Do not assume Colorado is going to rack up the losses.
The Colorado Buffaloes lost but covered late Saturday night. First of all, let’s credit Kansas State. Winning on the road is supposed to be hard.
Second of all, let’s realize the primary reasons Colorado lost. First of all, the Wildcats managed six sacks of Shedeur Sanders, costing 74 yards and lessening multiple Buffaloes’ drives. Second of all, injuries came for Colorado’s receivers, led by a shoulder injury to cornerback/receiver Travis Hunter.
"College Football 134" set the Over/Under on Kansas State sacks of Shedeur Sanders at 4.5.@Covers_Caley took the Over.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 13, 2024
He cashes it in the third quarter.
Now, the latter may become an ongoing issue. The Buffaloes need a lot from very few players, Louis Vuitton too expensive to afford many bags.
The former has always been the greatest issue for Colorado, one exploited by North Dakota State and Nebraska early in the season. But looking closely at the Buffaloes’ remaining schedule, it may not be an issue for a few weeks. Arizona, Cincinnati, and Texas Tech — especially Texas Tech — lack dominant defensive fronts.
When Sanders has time, it hardly matters who he is throwing to. He makes it work. Colorado might reel off a few more wins just yet, perhaps finding bowl eligibility in October.
Douglas’ advice: Listen for any news around Hunter. If he is ruled out, let Colorado’s line at Arizona next week grow. The Buffaloes present as short underdogs. Hopefully, it can steam toward +6. Because without pressure in the pocket to overly worry about, backing Sanders will be the right play.
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College football Week 7 things you definitely should react to
Continue to overreact to how bad some teams are. The list of those to dismiss has only grown longer.
A week ago, seven teams were included on a list of “quick fade” teams. Identifying the teams that have quit on the season before oddsmakers spot them provides distinct betting value.
Only three of those teams played this weekend, going 1-2 against the spread.
Two more teams should be added to the list.
Kent State may have found a backdoor cover against Ball State, but needing a backdoor cover against what may be the second-worst team in the MAC is hardly a promising sign. And Southern Miss has reached a land beyond reproach, getting blown out, 38-21, by Louisiana-Monroe.
Douglas' advice: That brings our list to nine teams. Expect lines to move quickly against them: Purdue vs. Oregon (bet the Ducks at anything below -34); Troy at South Alabama (bet the Jaguars at anything below -14); Florida State at Duke (take the Blue Devils at -2.5 or better); UTEP vs. FIU (FIU within -6); Tulsa at Temple (actually, no, stay off this monstrosity); Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee State (the Blue Raiders at -11 or lower); UAB at South Florida (take the Bulls, then take them again); Kent State at Bowling Green (the Falcons at -21 perhaps); and Southern Miss vs. Arkansas State (don’t flinch at the line, no matter how narrow, just take the Red Wolves).
Do overreact to how bad UAB is.
Calling UAB’s season dead would be an insult to anything and anyone buried in the ground. Calling UAB's season dead is as charitable as saying it is inconvenient to total your car with no collision insurance. Calling UAB's season dead is like saying paint thinner has a faint scent. Calling UAB's season dead is like calling a marathon a Sunday morning jog.
Douglas' advice: Seriously, bet South Florida. Then bet the Bulls again.
Do continue to overreact to the roster damage done by late-cycle coaching hires.
The damage done to those rosters has not yet been properly understood. To date, the nine programs that hired new coaches in mid-January or later are 14-29 ATS, including 1-5 this past weekend, not counting Washington’s outright and ATS win against Michigan two weeks ago, given both teams fit this description.
Douglas' advice: Ponder this when looking at Georgia State heading to Marshall, Buffalo hosting Western Michigan, Arizona hosting Colorado, Michigan heading to Illinois, UCLA’s flight to Rutgers — and that will be a moment to actually discuss travel, with a kickoff set for noon ET/9 a.m. PT — Boston College’s quick jaunt to Virginia Tech, a counter against South Alabama hosting the “quick fade” above in Troy, and San Jose State’s welcoming of Wyoming.
Let's combine a few thoughts from this column.
Fade UCLA at Rutgers.
Trust Colorado against Arizona.
Not intended for use in MA.
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