Tennessee's loss to Arkansas last week highlighted some SEC struggles. Now, it will hope to get off the mat quickly as it welcomes rival Florida to town.
My Florida vs. Tennessee predictions put to bed any notion that suggests there's a bigger issue on offense, as my college football picks call for the Volunteers to be leading at the half.
Find out why as I break down this SEC showdown for Saturday, October 12.
Florida vs Tennessee prediction and best bet
My best bet
Tennessee -7.5 1H (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
If you wanted to be kind to Tennessee, you could make the argument that last week's loss to the Razorbacks was predictable.
Let's be honest: Arkansas hasn't been great, so it was an obvious letdown spot, and the Vols were looking ahead to this game. If you watched the game, maybe that argument could become more believable. Things never looked exactly right. The offense was sluggish, and the general appearance of the team lacked intensity. However you'd like to put it, Tennessee went to Arkansas and failed to meet the moment. I don't suspect that will be a problem here.
Tennessee headman Josh Heupel has been great in these spots. Entering this game, he's outright 13-3 after a loss. During his time at Tennessee, he's gone 7-3 ATS after a loss. A place he's had an even better mark? In the 1st half of those games. He's covered the first half-spread in all but one of those games.
Beyond Heupel's situational dominance, here is also the story of how good the Vols have been in the first half of games overall. Over the last 11 games, they've covered the 1H spread eight times. Beyond that is the actual play on the field, of course. And that's where you'll find plenty of Vols advantages.
It's tough to figure out how they'll stop Tennessee.
Yes, I know. I talked about the Vols offense struggling over the last few weeks, but some may be an aberration. Overall, the numbers still view the offense very strongly as they enter this game ranked 12th in the country in offensive passing success rate at just over 52%. You also have the historical context of what Huepel has done offensively throughout his career, giving you some confidence that they'll manage this small downswing. Besides, this Florida Gators defense is not very good.
From an EPA perspective, Florida ranks in the 100s or worse in almost every metric. Against the pass is the only area it manages to get out of that area, ranking 88th per dropback nationally. More is needed against Nico Lamaleava's talents. What happened the last time they faced a quarterback of the same caliber as Lamaleva is particularly worrisome for Florida.
That came in week one against Cam Ward when they allowed the Miami signal caller to throw for nearly 400 years. Is Lamaleava as good as Ward? Not quite, but it's not a massive distance. Has the Florida defense improved? Well, it couldn't be any worse, but it's hard to believe it's managed to fix enough issues to slow down such an explosive offense like this.
I expect an angered Tennessee team to come out with fire after a tough loss last week. They'll jump out of the brakes quickly, and the poor Florida defense can only do a little to slow them down.
Florida vs Tennessee same-game parlay (SGP)
Tennessee moneyline
Bru McCoy anytime touchdown
Nico Iamaleava Over 249.5 passing yards
We can't use our best bet in this parlay because BetMGM doesn't allow you to use a first-half spread, and it's same-game parlays. Instead, we're pairing the Tennessee ML with two legs for this parlay.
The first of those is Bru McCoy finding the endzone. He's not scored this season, but with an average of nearly 15 yards per catch, it's only a matter of time. This seems like a good spot. McCoy is the most explosive wideout for Tennessee, and Florida has had an issue with explosive play this season. We'll take the strength on the weak spot here.
The last leg is Iamaleava to go over 249 passing yards. This one is fairly cut and dry. Lamaleava hasn't been able to get going over the previous few weeks, which presents an opportunity to remedy a few things. There's also the added benefit: if Tennessee is in a position to run the score up here, it won't shy away. I projected 262 passing yards here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Florida vs Tennessee odds
Florida vs Tennessee live odds
Florida vs Tennessee opening odds
- Florida vs. Tennessee spread: Tennessee -16.5
- Florida vs. Tennessee moneyline: Florida +450, Tennessee -650
- Florida vs. Tennessee Over/Under: 56.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Florida vs Tennessee spread and Over/Under analysis
- Florida has dominated this series recently, winning eight of the last ten head-to-head meetings and three of the last four.
- These matchups have generally been low-scoring, too, with just three of the last ten going Over.
- As of two weeks ago, Florida had been on four straight games, going 0-4 ATS. Since then, however, the Gators have covered in back-to-back games.
- The role was reversed for Tennessee. The Vols had covered five straight games before its loss last week at Arkansas
Florida vs Tennessee betting trend to know
Tennessee has covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 40% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Florida vs Tennessee.
Florida vs Tennessee game info
| Location: | Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-12, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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