It has become a trope of the presidential campaign this fall, but it has been a lesson college football fans have long known: We can sleep when we’re dead. In our terms, it is an encouragement to never go to sleep just because a game is a rout.
The WNBA Finals reminded us of that truth on Thursday night, the Minnesota Lynx coming back from a 15-point deficit with barely five minutes remaining to upset the New York Liberty. The beauty of sports is how often something new happens. In WNBA postseason history, 183 teams had been down at least 15 points with five minutes remaining. All 183 had lost until Tuesday.
College football has had plenty of its wild comebacks. Georgia nearly pulled one off at Alabama two weeks ago. Cam Newton’s 28-3 run in the 2010 Iron Bowl comes to mind, keeping the Tigers on the unbeaten path to their national championship. College football diehards think of Josh Rosen in 2017. Those of us who remember the concept of Monday morning radio think of Mike Valenti’s iconic rant of “Michigan State sat there and choked on applesauce!!” after the Spartans blew a 16-point lead in the fourth quarter against Notre Dame.
But one particular comeback seems pertinent this weekend …
College football betting news for Week 7
- 2021 Red River
- Genuine Playoff Implications
- Bonus Bet
- Bonus Bet pt 2
- A Bet For Every Window
- Tuesday pod recap
- Saturday pod teaser
Douglas's CFB news and notes
2021 Red River
In Steve Sarkisian’s first season as part of this iconic rivalry, No. 21 Texas jumped out to a 28-7 first-quarter lead against unbeaten No. 6 Oklahoma. Sark looked poised to turn this rivalry on its head in his first chance and ruin Lincoln Riley’s national championship hopes as he did so.
Then Riley pulled Spencer Rattler and inserted Caleb Williams. Williams immediately ripped off a 66-yard touchdown run and quickly directed two field goal drives to show life in the offense, though the Sooners still trailed 38-20 at halftime.
Oklahoma trailed by that same 18-point margin, 41-23, as the third quarter neared its end. And then the Sooners scored 32 points in the final 16 minutes to complete the 55-48 comeback. Williams finished with 212 passing yards and two touchdowns along with 88 rushing yards and that initial score, heavily supplemented by running back Kennedy Brooks’ 217 yards and two touchdowns in the wild win.
Nowadays, of course, Texas is the half of this Cotton Bowl matchup with national title aspirations. Brent Venables may be in his second season as head coach at Oklahoma and thus second season in this rivalry, and he has already turned it somewhat on its head with last year’s dramatic 34-30 victory, but he could reset plenty of narratives with an outright upset this weekend as a two-touchdown underdog.
For the sake of entertainment and comedy, let’s hope for a comeback of some variety in Dallas this weekend.
Or would it be even funnier if Texas is losing big early, pulls Quinn Ewers, and we start the Arch Manning Era in earnest with an 18-point second-half comeback?
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 11, 2024
Genuine Playoff Implications
Two games have obvious Playoff implications this weekend. The headlines focus on Ohio State at Oregon, and understandably so. Both the Buckeyes and the Ducks entered the season with national championship hopes, and Autzen Stadium is one of the best environments in this delightful sport of ours.
It's not often I see the biggest game of the weekend and want to place a best bet on it, but Ohio State at Oregon has that kind of value.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 9, 2024
Buckeyes -3.
I'll always back a defensive line with veterans that should be on NFL rosters. pic.twitter.com/NQk3VRKGMy
But Mississippi’s trip to LSU as a 3.5-point favorite has more Playoff implications. No, really.
Looking at FanDuel’s “Make the Playoff” market, Ohio State is priced at -1,600 and Oregon is at -800. Meanwhile, Mississippi is at -130 and LSU is at +250. Saturday night’s loser in Baton Rouge should be considered eliminated from the Playoff.
In that regard, it does just mean more than the Big Ten tilt.
What to watch for? LSU’s pass defense was exposed against USC in Week 1, and it has not improved much, ranking No. 118 in passing success rate against. Look for the Rebels and quarterback Jaxson Dart to papercut the Tigers to death.
Bonus Bet from Douglas
Enough procrastination. This bet was one of my biggest plays, personally, on Sunday afternoon, and then I never dug deep enough into it to include the handicap on the Tuesday episode of “College Football 134” or in Thursday’s best bets column.
If spending 40 minutes on it now delays a sazerac by that much this evening, that is worth it so long as you learn something.
Best bets column cutting room floor may be the same as the podcast cutting room floor.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 10, 2024
I'll officially bet Monroe -6.5 at some point this week, I swear it.
Let’s start by acknowledging how much Louisiana-Monroe has improved this season. The preseason SP+ ratings considered the WarHawks to be the single-worst team in college football, No. 134 at 23.4 points worse than an average team. Monroe is now up to No. 112 at 14.2 points worse than an average team.
And that still includes a touch of preseason priors, which is to say there is a decent chance ULM remains underappreciated in those numbers.
Meanwhile, Southern Miss has hardly moved, going from No. 119 at -16.1 to No. 124 at -16.3. Again, some preseason priors may have lessened the Golden Eagles’ meager analytical drop.
Now, just going off those numbers, Monroe should be about a 5.5-point home favorite, and indeed, ULM is favored by -6.5 or -7, depending on your sportsbook. (Remember folks, always shop.)
So there is little value to be had, right? Wrong.
Again, as was alluded to earlier, both these teams’ rankings are probably not yet fully comprehending their differing trajectories this season. And the one thing those rankings never grasp is how lost a locker room may be.
Southern Miss head coach Will Hall is in his fourth season. He reached seven wins in 2022, the seventh coming in the LendingTree Bowl. The other two-plus seasons have combined for seven wins. This 1-4 start bodes poorly. Very poorly.
Looking at some preseason notes, the thought was Southern Miss would open the season 2-3 and then win this game with ease to get to 3-3 and perhaps cool Hall’s seat. Instead, 1-4 with 1-5 coming down the train tracks could cost him his job by the end of the month. And if not by the end of the month, then let’s realize there may not be another win on this schedule until after Thanksgiving.
Meanwhile, Monroe has bought all the way in under first-year head coach Bryant Vincent. Expect that to continue.
The numbers may see this game as properly priced, but the numbers do not account for the despair and ambivalence prevalent in the Southern Miss locker room at the moment.
🏈Bonus Bet from Douglas: Louisiana-Monroe -7 (-108 at DraftKings)🏈
Bonus Bet from Douglas, pt. ii
Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun knew what was coming this season, saying he had to replace more on the roster than in any season since he first arrived at the Academy in 2007. Some of that was inevitable after the Falcons were (somewhat surprisingly) allowed to use fifth-year players since 2020. That is usually beyond the reach of service academies, and it helped Air Force the last couple of seasons.
But now that bill has come due. The Falcons simply had no experience to count on entering this season, those players largely matriculating onto more important things.
Air Force’s offense, in particular, is a debacle. It runs more than anyone else in the country, and it does so worse than just about anyone else in the country.
New Mexico’s defense is not particularly stout, but it does not need to be in this moment. Its offense, meanwhile, is surprisingly competent and remarkably efficient. The Lobos produce a quality drive on more than half their possessions. Just two of those may be enough to cover this one-possession spread at home.
🏈Bonus Bet from Douglas: New Mexico -6.5 (-110 at BetMGM)🏈
College Football 134's Tuesday value
“College Football 134” records twice a week for a pile of reasons. One of them is to try to give you a headstart on some weekend lines. Giving out the Eastern Michigan moneyline at +125 looks awfully smart now, the Eagles down to +115 as home ‘dogs against Miami (OH). Taking Iowa State at -2.5 at West Virginia bodes better now that the Cyclones are 3- or 3.5-point favorites.
There is value to be had in subscribing and listening to that Tuesday episode as it hits your feeds on Tuesday nights or perhaps on your Wednesday morning commute.
⚡️Listen to Tuesday's episode of the Covers 134 pod here⚡️
A Bet for Every Saturday Window
You do not need to always have a bet down. You shouldn’t. You should bet only when you see clear value. But if you insist on having at least one piece of action for every moment of Saturday …
12:00 ET — Clemson -10.5 in the first half at Wake Forest (-120 at BetRivers as of Friday afternoon)
3:30 ET — Stanford team total Over 10.5 points at Notre Dame (+110 at BetMGM)
7:30 ET — Ohio State -3.5 at Oregon (+100 at BetMGM)
After Dark — Kansas State -3.5 at Colorado (-105 at BetMGM)
Since Chris Klieman took over as head coach in 2019, Kansas State is 12-3-2 ATS as a one-possession favorite. pic.twitter.com/zQoPHNaMm0
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 11, 2024
College Football 134 LIVE on Saturday morning
There is not a question Douglas Farmer and Andrew Caley would not answer during the Saturday morning live show. All you have to do is ask it. Preferably, it is about college football. Curious about San Diego State at Wyoming? Have at ‘em. Wondering about Mississippi State’s best approach at Georgia? Great. If you want to ask for life advice, what’s the worst that happens?
Now where’s that sazerac? Cheers.
Check out the College Football 134 podcast Saturday pregame show at 9 a.m. ET on the Covers YouTube channel.
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