Arizona State will attempt to win the Big 12 in its debut season as the Sun Devils face off with the Iowa State Cyclones in Saturday’s Big 12 Championship Game at AT&T Stadium.
Both teams come in with a 10-2 record, but Arizona State has been more impressive of late having won five consecutive games by an average of more than 16 points and beating BYU. The Cyclones rebounded from losing two in a row to edge out those Cougars in the tiebreaker, but have some real concerns on defense.
My early Iowa State vs. Arizona State predictions dive into the matchup.
Iowa State vs Arizona State predictions
Early spread lean
Arizona State -2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
They say games are won and lost in the trenches, and that’s exactly how the Arizona State Sun Devils have rolled to a 10-2 record on the season. The Sun Devils rank 14th in rush success and 24th in pass success, and it’s behind an offensive line that has allowed just 11 sacks and 37 tackles for loss in nine conference games.
Cam Skattebo has gained nearly 1,400 yards on the ground behind a line that's averaging 3.3 line yards per rush and has a stuff rate of just 14%. Stopping the run has been a serious problem for Iowa State this season, with opponents gaining more than 5.0 yards a carry.
Where the Iowa State Cyclones have been able to negate this issue has been by forcing turnovers, ranking 20th in takeaways per game. They forced two turnovers this weekend to outlast Kansas State, with their first two touchdowns being set up by fumbles, giving them 30 or fewer yards to go for a score.
Arizona State ranks sixth nationally with just 0.7 turnovers per game, with quarterback Sam Leavitth having made only three turnover-worthy throws in 288 attempts this season, according to PFF. The Sun Devils have the fourth-best touchdown rate on red zone trips in Big 12 play, averaging four points per opportunity, and rank 15th in time of possession.
Neither of these defenses makes a lot of plays behind the line of scrimmage, but much of what Iowa State’s defense has achieved has come by coming up with timely turnovers. Those turnovers have given the Cyclone offense the 14th-best net field position this season, a key reason their inconsistent offense has found points.
Turnovers and short fields won’t be on offer this weekend. That’s why I like the Sun Devils to control the line of scrimmage on offense and get enough stops on defense to come away with the Big 12 crown.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 51.5 (-112 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The loss of wide receiver Jordyn Tyson would be a big blow to the passing game for Arizona State, and his status is unknown after he left the win over Arizona with his arm in a sling. That likely just means more of an emphasis on running the ball with Skattebo, which is one reason I’m leaning slightly to the Under.
Iowa State’s pass defense has been terrific. The Cyclones rank Top 5 in passing yards allowed per game and completion rate allowed, Top 10 in interception rate, and Top 20 in yards per pass. So the best path to victory is for Arizona State to run it early and often and punish an Iowa State run defense ranked 111th in success rate and 71st in EPA/rush.
On the flip side, Iowa State has struggled the past few games at putting together successful first-half drives that weren’t dependent on short fields. The Cyclones have relied on their defense to keep things close early, with the offense compiling long second-half drives where they take advantage of worn-down defenses to put games away.
In fact, in their last five games, the Cyclones have put together just six first-half scoring drives that went 60+ yards — and three of those came against Utah. Of the 24 points they scored before halftime against Kansas State, 17 of those points came from drives totaling 86 yards.
Simply put, this Iowa State offense isn’t built to put up points in a short amount of time.
In addition, you have two defenses ranked in the top half of the conference in the fewest chunk plays allowed in Big 12 play. That means grinding out drives, and Iowa State ranks fourth-worst in the conference in touchdown rate once inside the 20-yard line.
I’m expecting Arizona State to get an early lead and grind out the ground game as they keep Iowa State’s offense on the sideline. That will lead to fewer plays and fewer points, with the Cyclones not doing their part to push this total Over.
Iowa State vs Arizona State live odds
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