A year ago, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish took on the Louisville Cardinals as one-possession favorites with their Playoff hopes in the balance. The only difference this time around is that the Cardinals are traveling north, the Irish once again hoping to avoid a second loss.
My Louisville vs. Notre Dame predictions are backing the Irish defense and what is a favorable matchup against the Cardinals offense. Read more in my college football picks for Saturday, September 28 below.
Louisville vs Notre Dame prediction
My best bet
Notre Dame moneyline + Under 48.5 (+140 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The greatest want would be to take a Louisville Cardinals team total Under in the range of 18.5. Anything north of 17.5 without much juice would have garnered that interest. The good news of BetMGM refusing to offer that bet as a standalone is that we instead find a plus-money combination bet that relies on the same logic.
The added risk to this approach is a need for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to score enough to, you know, win, but if expecting the Cardinals to fall short of 17 points, even the Irish offense should be able to manage that. Technically speaking, there may be a risk Notre Dame could score more than 30 to bust this alternate Under, but against a quality run defense like Louisville’s, that worry can be dismissed with this rendition of the Irish.
So, let’s focus on when the Cardinals have the ball. In two games against FBS competition this season, Louisville has turned 16 possessions into 11 quality drives, moments when it became statistically more likely than not that an average team would score. The Cardinals have not mounted a single quality drive without the benefit of at least one explosive play, enjoying 16 explosives on the season, 13 of which were passes.
Three of Louisville’s eight touchdowns against FBS foes have come on explosive plays. Without those, the Cardinals have found the end zone just five times on 13 possessions. In a vacuum, that rate may be sustainable, but when the two opponents have been Jacksonville State (No. 120 in current SP+ ratings) and Georgia Tech (No. 79), five out of 13 (38.5%) is a worrying offense.
Louisville remains overly dependent on explosive plays, pass plays in particular, with a downgrade in running back playmaking. The bad news for the Cardinals this weekend is that the Irish defense does not give up many explosive plays, in part thanks to enjoying two All-Americans in the secondary.
On 42 opponent possessions in four FBS games this season, Notre Dame has given up just 13 quality drives and only nine total explosive plays (excluding garbage time). Three of those explosive moments came in Northern Illinois’s first three possessions when it was rather clear the Irish had not appropriately mentally readied for their opponent. In those 39 other opponent possessions, Notre Dame has given up just 10 quality drives and only six total explosive plays.
Depriving Louisville of the big play will short-circuit its offense, and then the Irish offense should be able to do just enough, and a little more than that, to get the win.
Louisville vs Notre Dame same-game parlay (SGP)
Louisville team total Under 17.5
Riley Leonard anytime touchdown
Riley Leonard 150+ passing yards
When Louisville falls short of the end zone on explosive plays, it' s nearly as likely to attempt a field goal (four times) as it is to actually cross the goal line (five). Note, the sentence there did not say “make” a field goal, but only attempt one. Cardinals kicker Brock Travelstead is 1-of-4 against FBS competition this season, 3-for-6 on the entire season. Offensive failures often lead to no Louisville points, let alone simply reduced points.
The two Riley Leonard props have each cashed three out of four times this season, including both of them cashing in two games. The veteran quarterback rushing in for a touchdown has been a common need in his career, doing so 23 times in his last 22 healthy games. It is, quite frankly, a default play call when Leonard is taking the snap.
And as much criticism as Notre Dame’s passing offense has deservedly received, Leonard has cleared 150 passing yards in three of four games. Louisville is much better defensively against the rush, lowering the Irish offense’s ceiling but also raising the need for Leonard to find some chunk gains via his arm. Yet, including this prop boosts this SGP from +225 to +475.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Louisville vs Notre Dame odds
Louisville vs Notre Dame live odds
Louisville vs Notre Dame opening odds
- Louisville vs. Notre Dame spread: Notre Dame -5.5
- Louisville vs. Notre Dame moneyline: Louisville +165, Notre Dame -200
- Louisville vs. Notre Dame Over/Under: 48.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Louisville vs Notre Dame spread and Over/Under analysis
- Notre Dame was a healthy 9.5-point favorite all summer, only to have this line reopen on Sunday with the Irish just 5-point favorites. That shift said more about Notre Dame thus far this season than about Louisville.
- After a brief Sunday drop to -4.5, this spread steadied at -6 on Monday and ticked upward to -6.5 on Wednesday afternoon.
- The total dropping each day this week to 45.5 on Wednesday from opening at 48.5 on Sunday should be considered an endorsement of the Irish defense.
Louisville vs Notre Dame betting trend to know
Three of Notre Dame’s four games this season have gone Under their totals, including both home games. Find more college football betting trends for Louisville vs Notre Dame.
Louisville vs Notre Dame game info
| Location: | Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, IN |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-28, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Peacock |
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