Michigan vs Maryland Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Wolverines Don't Stumble In Look-Ahead Spot

In our latest rendition of the Michigan Wolverines vs. Everybody, the Maryland Terrapins will be representing the masses. If they show up like everyone else in the Big Ten has thus far, well, aside from Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti, then Michigan should run right over the Terps.

Then again, this may be the toughest situational spot in the country this season, perhaps setting up Michigan for a stumble against the college football odds.

Which side of that balance gets the edge this weekend? We’ll ponder in our free college football picks and predictions for Michigan vs Maryland on November 18, with kickoff set for 12:00 p.m. ET.

Michigan vs Maryland best odds

Michigan vs Maryland picks and predictions

This handicapper prefers not to spend much time handicapping “situational spots.” Usually, that is an attempt at gauging the headspace of dozens of 18- to 23-year-olds, and none of us are smart enough for that. Occasionally, a coaching staff tendency will stick out over years, but that is the exception, not the norm.

Jim Harbaugh has been at Michigan for nine years now. Maybe it would be more accurate to call it 8.5, since he will end up missing half this regular season due to two separate suspensions. Anyway, no trend emerged in the week before his seven previous matchups with Ohio State. (The two did not meet in 2020.) The Wolverines are 3-4 against the spread the week before facing the Buckeyes, including 2-3 when favored by three scores and 1-1 in the last two seasons. The totals are also murky, the Over cashing in three of the seven.

So, while there may be a want to speculate that Michigan will overlook Maryland as it recovers from a physical game against Penn State and before facing that school down south, there is little, if any, evidence of that.

What there is evidence of is the Wolverines’ competitive edge against the rest of the Big Ten. It is difficult to phrase that without it sounding like a sign-stealing reference, but it wasn’t. Those allegations — are they still just “allegations,” or have we moved past that usual conditional requirement? — first publicly surfaced before Michigan visited Michigan State on Oct. 21. In the three games since then, the Wolverines are 2-1 ATS and the exception came only because of a touchdown with 18 seconds left in a 33-point game.

Michigan has gone 5-1-1 against conference opponents this year, fitting a trend dating back to the start of 2021. The Wolverines have lost or pushed against the spread in their first Big Ten game in each of the last three seasons. After that, they went 8-1 ATS in conference play in 2021. The opening struggles reached through three games in 2022, Michigan then closing 5-1-1.

Again this season, the Wolverines stumbled out of the Big Ten gates, pushing as 24-point favorites against Rutgers. Since then? 5-1 ATS.

Therein lies our coaching staff tendency. It has been more dramatic in non-conference play, going 5-4 ATS in those games to start these three seasons, but the ramp-up to effectiveness has extended into Big Ten worries every fall.

And with time, Michigan erases those memories.

Let’s consider that a predictive trend, one exemplifying how Harbaugh uses a season, and certainly one more convincing than anything from the past eight years focused on the week before The Game.

My best bet: Michigan -19 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Michigan vs Maryland same-game parlay

Michigan -19

Maryland team total Under 14.5

J.J. McCarthy Over 230.5 passing yards

+294 at DraftKings

Exactly one team has scored more than 13 points on Michigan this season, a touchdown with fewer than two minutes left getting Penn State to 15 last week. Along with Purdue using a last-minute touchdown to cover the spread, the only teams to score more than 10 points this year have needed non-competitive moments to do so.

Maryland might benefit from a similar defensive lapse late on Saturday, but in order for that to burn this same-game parlay, the Terrapins would have needed to twice find success earlier, which would also be more success than anyone else has found against this version of the Wolverines’ defense.

Maryland has an above-average offense, but not drastically so, and it is measurably worse than both Penn State’s and UNLV’s. Yet neither of them found multiple successes while the game was still genuine.

As for J.J. McCarthy, consider this a bet on Michigan interim head coach Sherrone Moore offering some redemption for his veteran quarterback. The Wolverines famously gave up passing to grind through the Nittany Lions last week, something most notable because the offensive coordinator was working as the interim head coach. This week, he has the opportunity to reward McCarthy for that selfless performance, particularly possible since Maryland’s defense is significantly worse than Penn State’s.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Michigan vs Maryland spread and Over/Under analysis

This line opened with the Wolverines favored by 19 on Sunday before it rose as high as 20.5 that evening, where it stuck into Monday. Dropping back down to -19.5 at most books with some at -19 on Tuesday was the last notable movement, a nod to how sharp sportsbooks get as the season moves into its closing weeks.

Maryland has been an underdog just twice this season, losing by 20 as 17-point underdogs at Ohio State and losing by 36 as 7.5-point underdogs to Penn State.

The total opened at 52.5 before quickly falling to 51.5 and then even down to 49.5 on Monday before rebounding to 50. As much as Maryland is known for its offense, it has split totals results this season, while Michigan has gone 4-5-1 in Over/Unders.

Michigan vs Maryland betting trend to know

In seven meetings during Harbaugh’s tenure, Michigan has beaten the spread in six games against Maryland, the only exception also being the only time the game was early in the season, winning by just a touchdown as a 17-point favorite last September. Find more college football betting trends for Michigan vs Maryland.

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