Remember when Thursday nights used to feature a delightfully odd college football game? Something akin to a high-stakes Big East game, like 9-0 West Virginia going on the road to Pittsburgh in 2006 only to trail 27-24 at halftime? The Mountaineers then rattled off a 21-0 second half to stay in the national title hunt.
Don’t you miss that?
At some point, college football completely acquiesced Thursday night glory to the NFL. No offense to the North Carolina State Wolfpack or the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, but this matchup underscores that scheduling decision. There is little intrigue, which is where player props and free college football picks become more alluring.
My North Carolina State vs. Georgia Tech player props focus on a surprising aspect of the Wolfpack’s offense. Kickoff comes at 7:30 ET on Thursday, November 21.
NC State vs Georgia Tech props for Week 13
CJ Bailey Over 218.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)- Justin Joly Over 52.5 receiving yards (-115 at bet365)
Haynes King anytime touchdown (-105 at bet365)
Picks made on 11-21.
Read full analysis of each pick.
NC State vs Georgia Tech college football player props
Prop bet #1: CJ Bailey Over 218.5 passing yards
North Carolina State’s offense induces little confidence. The Wolfpack have cleared 30 points exactly once this season against Power Four competition three weeks ago against Stanford. All due respect to the Cardinal coming off their absurd win against Louisville last week, but hanging a crooked number against the fifth-worst defense in the Power Four by expected points added (EPA) per snap is hardly all that predictive.
But if any ounce of North Carolina State’s offense warrants some trust, it's the passing game. And if any part of Georgia Tech’s defense can be exploited, it's through the air. The Yellow Jackets have surprised a few teams this year by controlling the line of scrimmage, but they're vulnerable on the back end.
Thus, opponents pass against Georgia Tech 3.3% more often than an average team in a given game state, per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com. The Yellow Jackets rank No. 87 in EPA per dropback against, compared to No. 20 against the rush. In other words, NC State’s relative offensive strength matches up perfectly with Georgia Tech’s clear defensive weakness.
And yet CJ Bailey’s passing yardage prop is deflated. He has cleared this number in four of the last five games, with two of those coming against pass defenses better than the Yellow Jackets and a rather comparable third (Stanford, in fact). The one game in October and November in which Bailey fell short came against Duke, one of the best defenses in the country.
This number is low, low by at least 10 yards, maybe by 20.
Prop bet #2: Justin Joly Over 52.5 receiving yards
In four of six ACC games, Justin Joly has had at least 66 receiving yards. In a fifth, two weeks ago, he had 52.
Look closer, though. Joly has 21 catches in those six games, always grabbing at least two, and is more likely to pull in four. That kind of consistency raises Joly’s floor.
Catching four passes in four of the last five games speaks even more loudly. All due respect to Grayson McCall — and all college football fans owe the Coastal Carolina transfer a bounty of respect — but he had not established a rhythm with Joly in his three games of genuine action. The junior tight end has found that rhythm with Bailey since the freshman dual-threat quarterback took over behind center.
With North Carolina State likely to lean on the passing game, particularly if the 8.5-point home favorites take an early lead, Joly should again get plenty of looks.
Prop bet #3: Haynes King anytime touchdown
Some sportsbooks have this number as low as -235. The most fair price likely lies somewhere between that number and this -105, but those books adding juice are doing so to protect themselves against Jamal Haynes’ health.
Haynes suffered a concussion early in Georgia Tech’s upset of Miami on Nov. 9. He is considered questionable for this tilt, and the uncertainty is enough to scare sportsbooks away from offering the usual amount of rushing props.
If Haynes is indeed out, King will carry the ball more and in more crucial areas. He had 20 rush attempts in that victory, a season-high. It was no coincidence that it was also Haynes’s first game with slowed action.
King scored the game-winning touchdown against the Hurricanes. He's notched at least one rushing touchdown in five of seven games against FBS competition. He should make it six of eight against North Carolina State, particularly if Haynes is at all slowed.
More college football picks and odds from Covers
- NC State vs. Georgia Tech predictions
- Free college football picks
- College football odds
- College football National Championship odds
- Heisman Trophy odds
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
