Oregon State vs Notre Dame Prediction: Today's Sun Bowl Odds and Picks

Don’t nap on this afternoon's upcoming Sun Bowl. This annual bowl game odds showcase in El Paso is the fourth-oldest bowl game, is played in a stadium with a beautiful view, and has the No. 16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish taking on the No. 19 Oregon State Beavers in one of just four Top-25 matchups outside of the New Year’s Six games.

December roster attrition has changed the look of this game, but within that should be some distinct college football odds value as we break down today's Sun Bowl and our free college football picks and predictions for Oregon State vs Notre Dame on December 29.

Also, don't miss our Oregon State vs. Notre Dame prop picks for more Sun Bowl bets!

Oregon State vs Notre Dame best odds

Oregon State vs Notre Dame picks and predictions

Notre Dame has lost 12 November starters to either injury, the transfer portal, or NFL opt-outs. Nine of those came on offense.

Defensively, the Irish are nearly intact. This season, they started 10 defenders who were in at least their fourth season of collegiate action, the only exception being preseason All-American sophomore cornerback Benjamin Morrison. Losing three of those veterans to opt-outs does not make life better, but it is still obviously a proven and experienced defense.

Furthermore, two of those opt-outs, starting nickel back Thomas Harper and fifth-year linebacker Marist Liufau, will be replaced by senior Clarence Lewis and fifth-year linebacker Jack Kiser, respectively. The veteran trend continues.

The Notre Dame defense thus may be the one unit on the field that does not take mental gymnastics to gauge heading into the Sun Bowl. It is one of the best in the country, and it has replaced solid veterans with known veterans. The Irish think highly enough of Kiser to have rolled out the red carpet to coax him back to South Bend for a sixth season in 2024, and Lewis may join him.

That defense ranks No. 1 in the country in expected points added per dropback against, adjusting for opponents, per cfb-graphs.com. Fortunately for Oregon State, it doesn’t like to pass much, anyway, running three percent more often than game state would usually dictate.

Unfortunately for the Beavers, losing both bruising quarterback DJ Uiagalelei and his dual-threat backup Aidan Chiles to the transfer market will make their passing game weaker while also lessening their ground attack. The two quarterbacks combined for nine rushing touchdowns this season, averaging 5.8 rush attempts per game between the two of them, excluding sacks.

Even worse for Oregon State, sophomore running back Damien Martinez will also miss the game. At that point, the Beavers’ backfield brings 118 carries this season to El Paso.

Oregon State cannot compensate for those rushing losses by turning to the air. Notre Dame’s defense is too good against the pass, not to mention Beavers’ bowl game-starting quarterback Ben Gulbranson struggled to throw efficiently as the starter in 2022.

Without the physical rushing attack that propelled Oregon State into the top 20 to end the regular season, this offense may fail entirely. The Irish defense has remained intact enough to all but assure that possibility.

My best bet: Oregon State team total Under 17.5 (-125 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Oregon State vs Notre Dame same-game parlay

Oregon State team total Under 17.5

Under 21.5 first half

Over 41.5 full game

+1,530 at FanDuel

This is a game-flow prediction, one with an inflated same-game parlay payout because sportsbooks see this exact game flow as that chaotic.

But it has happened a few times for Notre Dame this season, so it is very much within the realm of possibility.

In their final three home games, the Irish reached halftime with at least a two-score lead against each of USC, Pittsburgh, and Wake Forest while the first-half total landed Under or right at its number, depending on when someone got it during the week. Both the Pitt and Wake games were right at the number, but not Over it.

And then on all three Saturdays, the second half became a laugher. Those three games went Over their totals by 7.5, 18.5, and 3.5 points, respectively, averaging 38 points per second half, while Notre Dame’s defense kept those opponents all below their team totals.

How did those game states unfold for such an exact sequence? The Irish found a modest lead, and then the opponents felt a need to throw the ball to catch up, despite two of them having lousy passing attacks and USC’s offensive line getting exposed. With it clear the ball was going into the air, Notre Dame defensive coordinator Al Golden dialed up the pressure, forcing mistakes and creating fantastic field position.

Then the Irish offense converted those moments into scores.

Oregon State’s pass offense will struggle on Saturday. If Notre Dame finds a modest lead, it can force the Beavers into trying their offense’s lesser half, and that should, in turn, boost the Irish offense.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Oregon State vs Notre Dame spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread has moved in accordance with public news of opt-outs, one in particular, and that may have caused it to move too far. The Irish were 10.5-point favorites early in the month, and that was after Notre Dame had hardly lost most of its receivers room to the transfer market in a surprising exodus.

Then the number fell to -8.5 as astute observers recognized Irish quarterback Sam Hartman would opt out of the Sun Bowl, and the number stuck there for nearly a week, Hartman not publicly announcing a decision that was otherwise known and quietly reported.

When Hartman did announce that choice publicly, this spread fell to -6.5.

The Hartman news had already been baked into the dropping spread, those final two points representing an overreaction. In that respect, Notre Dame should be the sharp side at least up to -7.

The total opened at 46.5 and also plummeted with each quarterback’s choice, falling to 43.5 in the middle of the month before Christmas sent it below 42 to 41.5 at most books. A turnover or big special teams play creating as few as two short fields should be enough to absolutely doom any Under hopes.

Oregon State vs Notre Dame betting trend to know

The first-half Under has cashed in Oregon State’s last three games away from Corvallis. Find more college football betting trends for Oregon State vs Notre Dame.

Oregon State vs Notre Dame game info

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