Texas A&M vs Oklahoma State Prediction: Texas Bowl Odds and Picks

The Oklahoma State Cowboys reached the Big 12 title game and the Texas A&M Aggies certainly entered the season with College Football Playoff aspirations.

No offense to tonight's Texas Bowl, but both programs are rather disappointed to reach this postseason exhibition in the college football odds.

However, one of these rosters arrives largely intact, while the other has been utterly decimated by the transfer portal and opt-outs, a reflection of the coaching staff’s own turnover.

That should create value in the Texas Bowl and our free college football picks for Texas A&M vs Oklahoma State on Wednesday, December 27.

Be sure to also check out our bowl game odds page and opt-out tracker so you don't miss a thing this bowl season!

Texas A&M vs Oklahoma State best odds

Texas A&M vs Oklahoma State picks and predictions

College football odds have an idea of how to factor in a shifting roster when setting a line. The Texas A&M Aggies losing 13 players with at least 200 snaps to the transfer market or opt-outs to prepare for the NFL Draft is certainly a lost bounty, but it's also a fact largely within a sportsbook’s algorithm’s reach.

But some pieces of that warrant extra focus, the kind of customized handicapping that an algorithm may miss. For example, the Aggies will be without both starting right guard Layden Robinson and starting right tackle Chase Bisontis. Missing such a tandem is more worrisome than simply missing two offensive linemen.

Similarly, Texas A&M will be down at least three starters from its defensive backfield and three starting defensive linemen. No matter how talented a roster is on paper, replacing entire position groups like that is a bridge too far.

Even the Aggies, who once had the single-best recruiting class in history helping this roster, do not have starter-quality depth through the entire second-string of its defense.

A defensive line’s success is dictated by its best player, which Texas A&M is now very much missing. A defensive backfield’s success is dictated by its worst player, which will now be a No. 6 or No. 7-quality defensive back. These are the worries for the Aggies coaching staff, whomever that may be.

Therein lies the sportsbook’s algorithm’s shortcomings. There's no math to weigh the impact of a coaching staff in complete turnover.

Jimbo Fisher is obviously no longer around, but interim head coach and defensive coordinator Elijah Robinson has already accepted the job as Syracuse’s defensive coordinator, while offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino has returned to Arkansas in the most unexpected homecoming in recent college football history.

Exactly who has led Texas A&M through bowl practices? Who has developed this game plan? Could you or I have joined that coaching staff this month?

Sportsbooks set a decent line on this game when factoring in the Aggies’ depleted roster — remember that top all-time recruiting class? A third of it has moved on after just their sophomore season. — but they fall short in understanding how wrecked Texas A&M’s leadership and chain of command is.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys, meanwhile, is the epitome of continuity. Mike Gundy remains in Stillwater, and the Cowboys may be down just one starter in the Texas Bowl.

When facing a shorthanded roster with an absent coaching staff, those types of intangible advantages compound. That is enough reason to skip the points and simply lean into Oklahoma State on the positive-value moneyline.

My best bet: Oklahoma State moneyline (+110 at Caesars) 
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Texas A&M vs Oklahoma State same-game parlay

Oklahoma State moneyline

Oklahoma State first-half moneyline

Texas A&M team total Under 27.5

+236 at DraftKings

Frankly, this feels a bit too correlated to still be paying better than 2-to-1. If the handicap here is that Texas A&M will be scattered and undermanned, then why not doubt that preparation from the outset?

Not to invoke James Harden, but plenty of trouble can be found in Houston, even if just 90 minutes from College Station. If the Aggies are unfocused out of the gates, then betting on the Cowboys to win both the first half and the game will add value.

And if Oklahoma State can grind down Texas A&M — more specifically, if Cowboys star running back Ollie Gordon III can wear out the Aggies' defense, then A&M’s overall verve should be diminished enough to cost any offensive explosion.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Texas A&M vs Oklahoma State spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread has moved in only one direction. Texas A&M opened as a 4.5-point favorite at the start of the month, ticking down to a field goal within a week and then to -2 a week later, in the middle of the month.

Some of that is tied to further transfer portal entries and opt-outs. Some of it was simply organic line movement.

The total saw far less movement, opening at 53.5 and falling to 53 in the middle of the month. Should A&M’s dispersal impact this total? It is, of course, lower than it would have been a month ago, the expected adjustment.

The Aggies are expected to start Jaylen Henderson at quarterback, a usual third-stringer and a junior.

The one-time Fresno State reserve transferred to College Station last spring, and he appeared in four games this regular season. His action late in the season largely came in blowouts, rather impressively, at that.

However, OSU should be able to make Texas A&M one-dimensional, an excellent rush defense that keeps opponents from scoring opportunities two-thirds of the time.

If that becomes a reality in Houston, then the Aggies’ uncertain game plan may be foiled outright, lowering any possible overall total.

Texas A&M vs Oklahoma State betting trend to know

The Cowboys began the season 1-2 both SU and ATS in games with spreads within one score before winning four of their last five such games, again both SU and ATS. Find more college football betting trends for Texas A&M vs Oklahoma State.

Texas A&M vs Oklahoma State game info

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