UCF and TCU look to remain unbeaten on the college football season when the Big 12 rivals face off on Saturday.
The Knights are running the ball down the throats of their opponents, ranked sixth with 6.7 yards per carry. But TCU’s defense is fast and aggressive and will be the biggest challenge they’ve faced yet.
I think that matchup will play out favorably for Under bettors in my UCF vs. TCU predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 14.
UCF vs TCU prediction
My best bet
Under 62.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
With the third-highest total of the Week 3 slate, the Under presents value and I’m going to take it.
The UCF Knights are going to look to run the ball early and often, and they are having success doing so with a three-headed monster at tailback. RJ Harvey has 268 yards on just 30 carries, but that’s bolstered by an 11-carry, 142-yard performance against New Hampshire. He’s one of three backs with at least 100 rushing yards and one touchdown so far this season for the Knights.
UCF ran the ball 57 times for a staggering 384 yards in their win over Sam Houston State, but 27 of those carries went for five yards or less. They have tended to be boom-or-bust in the ground game, and the TCU Horned Frogs defense will likely allow fewer explosive runs than what the Knights enjoyed against their first two opponents.
The Horned Frogs have a Havoc rate of 22.5% and a stuff rate of 23%. They employ an aggressive style of defense and show blitz quite often, even if they only bring four. And they’ve allowed just 414 yards combined to Stanford and Long Island University.
That’s likely going to force KJ Jefferson to throw the ball more, which is often a mixed bag. So far in 2024 he’s attempted just 29 passes compared to 20 runs. While he’s completed 19 of those throws, he’s typically not been a quarterback who slings it all over the place.
As for the Horned Frogs’ QB, Josh Hoover’s having a solid start to the season. He’s completing nearly 72% of his throws for more than 600 yards, but the passing attack is predicated on getting easy completions and moving the ball rather than going for big chunks.
Hoover’s average depth of target is just over seven yards downfield, with many of his throws coming via crossing routes. While UCF has allowed a fair amount of explosive plays in the passing game, they’ve also created Havoc at a high rate and have forced two turnovers in each win.
TCU’s running game hasn’t been stellar, with Cam Cook averaging just 4.2 yards per carry. But the Horned Frogs will likely rely more on Hoover to move the chains and keep drives going while keeping UCF’s trio of backs on the sideline.
In addition, it’s going to be extremely hot on Saturday. The temperature at kickoff will be sitting at 100 degrees with little cloud cover, and that kind of heat tends to not only drain energy but slow down tempo as teams try to keep players from cramping.
This will be an entertaining contest, but one that fails to reach 63 points. Take the Under and enjoy the show.
UCF vs TCU same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 62.5
RJ Harvey anytime TD
Josh Hoover 2+ passing TDs
Hoover has thrown a pair of touchdowns in each of TCU’s two games this season. UCF gave up two scoring passes to Sam Houston — albeit to different quarterbacks — and will be the focal point of their offense here.
As good as TCU’s defense is, Harvey is likely going to have a few big runs. He’s one of the fastest backs in the Big 12 and he found the endzone four times last week after scoring twice in the opener. He’ll find paydirt before the game is over.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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UCF vs TCU odds
UCF vs TCU live odds
UCF vs TCU opening odds
- Spread: UCF +2 | TCU -2
- Moneyline: UCF +100 | TCU -120
- Over/Under: Over 62.5 | Under 62.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
UCF vs TCU spread and Over/Under analysis
- TCU is favored by 2.5 points, but this spread has fluctuated wildly. TCU opened at -1.5 on Sunday, but UCF was -2.5 at one point on Wednesday. The line flipped back on Thursday and moved again to the current number on late Friday afternoon.
- Not only do I think UCF can cover here, but I think there’s value in them winning outright. The Knights wear you down with their physical run style, and in the brutal heat that adds an extra punch.
- The total has seen less change, sitting at its opening number after briefly dropping to 61.5 earlier in the week.
- This number is being driven a bit by the fact that UCF has scored 45+ points in both games, while TCU has posted 79 points in their two starts. However, TCU’s two wins have both stayed at 61 or fewer points, and the same should hold true here.
UCF vs TCU betting trend to know
TCU has hit the Under in 5 of its last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for UCF vs TCU.
UCF vs TCU game info
| Location: | Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-14-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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