The Nebraska Cornhuskers open their 2024 campaign with a nonconference battle against the UTEP Miners.
The books are leaning heavy into the ‘Huskers, setting them as 26.5-point home favorites, but my UTEP vs Nebraska prediction wonders if that number’s too high.
Read on for why my college football picks are backing a sneaky UTEP offense on Saturday, August 31.
UTEP vs Nebraska prediction
My best bet
UTEP +26.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The UTEP Miners provide an interesting test, as they work under the reins of new head coach Scotty Walden and will feature an offense with more tempo, and potentially more fireworks, in Conference USA.
It’ll help that a couple of transfers from his former school, Austin Peay, will be joining him, including Trey Goodman, who caught 34 balls for 721 yards and seven TDs last year.
With UTEP’s running back cupboard barren after the transfers of Deion Hankins and Torrance Burgess Jr, Jevon Jackson will also move from Austin Peay and get a chance to shine. He rushed for 1,373 yards and 10 TDs last year.
This can only help prop up QB Cade McConnell, who threw for 1,437 yards and six TDs on the season.
Still, there’s little to stop the flow of optimism in Lincoln, as the Nebraska Cornhuskers begin Year 2 of the Matt Rhule era.
That’s because there’s a new pivot in town, with 5-star recruit Dylan Raiola taking over the play-calling duties as a freshman.
The 6-foot-3, 230-pound passer threw for nearly 8,500 yards and 88 touchdowns during his high school career, and Raiola threw for 239 yards and two touchdowns on 16-of-22 passing in his spring game debut.
He should add a much-needed passing element to one of the best rushing attacks, which churned out 177.3 yards per game, a Top-40 rank in college football.
A more rounded gameplan should give Nebraska a chance to pile up more points, as they put up just 18 per game a season ago, which ranked a lowly 123rd in the nation, and Bottom 3 in the Big Ten. It would have ranked dead last in the SEC, where they now reside.
This should be a soft landing for the freshman pivot, as UTEP’s defense gave up 28.5 points per game a season ago and was particularly gashed by the run, surrendering 202.3 per contest, ranking 128th.
Still, Raiola will be making his first college start, so expectations should be somewhat tempered.
I expect Rhule to use the rush attack to ease his young pivot into the contest and lean on a defense that was 13th-best in the nation in points, ranking seventh in rush yards allowed.
It will be a successful Husker home opener — Nebraska is 12-0 at home vs nonconference teams in the month of August — but UTEP should stay just close enough to cover.
UTEP vs Nebraska same-game parlay (SGP)
UTEP +26.5
Dylan Raiola Over 199.5 yards passing
Jevon Jackson anytime TD
I’m not sure the last time there was this much hype coming from a Nebraska QB, but how thankful must fans in Lincoln be that Raiola flipped his commitment from powerhouse Georgia. Nebraska finished last in the Big Ten in passing yards and interceptions last season.
We mentioned that Rhule might be conservative early, but at some point in this game, he should let his stud pivot rip — most notably after that defense gets worn down by the run game.
Jackson might be up against a top run defense, but he’s familiar with Waldron’s system and schemes, and should be able to find a little bit of daylight out there.
UTEP was decent running the ball a year ago, putting up 144.3 yards per game, which ranked 83rd. The Miners also hit paydirt 16 times. If they do get close, Jackson should get his number called to punch the ball in.
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UTEP vs Nebraska odds
UTEP vs Nebraska live odds
UTEP vs Nebraska opening odds
- Spread: UTEP +1,000 | Nebraska -5,000
- Moneyline: UTEP +28.5 (-110) | Nebraska -28.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 (-110) | Under 49.5 (-110)
UTEP vs Nebraska spread and Over/Under analysis
- Nebraska is 1-5 ATS in its last five home games.
- The Cornhuskers’ Over record was 1-3 in four games as a home favorite in 2023.
- The Miners’ last four season openers have gone Under the total.
UTEP vs Nebraska betting trend to know
Nebraska has only covered the spread in three of its last 11 games. Find more college football betting trends for UTEP vs Nebraska.
UTEP vs Nebraska game info
| Location: | Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-31, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
UTEP vs Nebraska latest injuries
UTEP vs Nebraska weather
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