Wake Forest vs Notre Dame Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Deacons Offense Neutralized by Fighting Irish

The focus will be on Sam Hartman this afternoon as the veteran quarterback leads the Notre Dame Fighting Irish against his old team today.

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons may have hopes of exacting some revenge on Hartman, though no one in the Wake Forest program has ever faulted Hartman for his transfer, but an upset would be quite a shock with the Deacons as 24.5-point underdogs in the college football odds.

The Irish star probably will not be Hartman, not with how he has struggled for the last two months. Instead, let’s focus on the Notre Dame defense in our free college football picks and predictions for Wake Forest vs Notre Dame on Saturday, November 18.

Wake Forest vs Notre Dame best odds

Wake Forest vs Notre Dame picks and predictions

It has not mattered who started at quarterback for Wake Forest this season, its offense has struggled. The Demon Deacons have not scored more than 21 points against any ACC opponent, seven games and counting to this point, averaging 15 points per game.

Facing Notre Dame will not count as an ACC game, but the Irish are obviously more equivalent to Clemson, Florida State, and Duke than Elon, Vanderbilt, and Old Dominion.

Of Wake Forest’s opponents thus far, the defenses most comparable to this weekend’s challenge are Florida State’s and North Carolina State’s, ranked Nos. 9 and 16 in the SP+ defensive considerations, with Notre Dame at No. 11. Against the Seminoles, the Deacons did manage 16 points, but one touchdown drive was built nearly entirely on a 51-yard rush while their other two scoring drives were propelled by Florida State personal fouls.

Wake Forest lost 0.12 expected points per offensive snap, according to Game on Paper. Fewer than a third of its snaps garnered successful gains. If the Seminoles had not been so comfortable in a victory, life would have probably been worse.

And then there was last week against the Wolfpack.

Michael Kern handled nearly all the quarterback duties, and he will start again on Saturday, so these offensive stats — “offensive” meant both in the football sense and in the appalling sense — are rather pertinent. The Demon Deacons totaled 163 yards, including 27 rushing yards on 15 carries after adjusting for North Carolina State’s three sacks for 20 yards.

Heading into that game, the Wolfpack defense fared slightly better against the pass than the rush, but in both regards, North Carolina State is a top-tier defense. But Notre Dame’s is better in both respects, including the No. 1 EPA pass defense in the country.

So now that Irish defense can focus on an offense with no discernible run game, and one that gives up more sacks and tackles for loss than all but two other teams in each respect.

Those struggles come in part because Wake Forest’s running game deserves no defensive worry this season, meaning pass rushers pin their ears back and get into the backfield against an overmatched offensive line.

That exact recipe is how Notre Dame routed Pittsburgh, 58-7, three weeks ago. There is every reason to expect those same results.

My best bet: Wake Forest team total Under 10.5 (-130 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Wake Forest vs Notre Dame same-game parlay

Wake Forest team total Under 10.5

Sam Hartman Over 2.5 passing TDs

Chris Tyree anytime TD

+487 at FanDuel

Notre Dame’s offense has struggled for six games now. Hartman has been at the crux of that, fairly or unfairly. He has thrown just five touchdowns in those six games, completing only 58.3% of his passes for 7.2 yards per attempt. And yet, he is only three career touchdown passes behind No. 4 in NCAA history, a tie between Colt Brennan (Hawaii, 2005-07), Rakeem Cato (2011-14), and Baker Mayfield (2013-17).

That may not seem like a strong reason to lean on a quarterback, but if the Irish can wipe clean some of those memories of recent struggles and put “Notre Dame” high up in the NCAA record books, it will, if for no other reason than to use that as recruitment material for another transfer quarterback this winter, already a stated intention from Irish head coach Marcus Freeman.

And that is without even delving into the intangible of Hartman facing his old team.

Similarly, Chris Tyree is a converted running back who has emerged as Notre Dame’s most consistent receiver since junior tight end Mitchell Evans tore his ACL. But more to the point, it is Senior Day, and while Tyree could return in 2024, that is far from a sure thing.

If this game tilts the Irish way early, then senior emphases will show up in play calling. Getting a moment for a senior who switched positions for the betterment of the team would fit that, not that Tyree isn’t a threat to score when the game is competitive, too. Again, he is the most consistent target for Hartman these days.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Wake Forest vs Notre Dame spread and Over/Under analysis

Notre Dame opened as a 22-point favorite on Sunday, a number that almost immediately spiked to -24.5, where it has sat comfortably since. This will be the largest spread against Wake Forest this season, and they went 1-1 against the spread as 21-point underdogs against Florida State and Clemson, respectively. 

The Irish have been favored by more than 20 points in four games this season, going 3-1 ATS.

This total opened at 48.5 before quickly falling to 47.5 and then to 46.5 on Tuesday, again not moving since.

The inclination may be to grab an Under, given the above doubt of Wake Forest’s offense and the acknowledgement of Notre Dame’s recent offensive struggles, but realize the Irish defense propelled its last two home games well Over their totals, scoring its own touchdowns and creating short fields for the stumbling offense to capitalize on.

Wake Forest vs Notre Dame betting trend to know

Notre Dame has won its last two home finales by a combined score of 99-0, the first with Marcus Freeman as defensive coordinator and the second with him as head coach. Find more college football betting trends for Wake Forest vs Notre Dame.

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