While the New York Jets snacked on humble pie following their Week 8 loss to the New England Patriots, it’s a short turnaround for their home date with the Houston Texans at MetLife Stadium on Thursday, October 31.
Sure, the Houston defense looks spooky at first glance, but my NFL picks and breakdown of the Aaron Rodgers odds expect the New York quarterback to be the one wrecking Halloween havoc on Thursday Night Football.
Make sure to also check out Jason Logan's Texans vs. Jets predictions before kickoff!
Aaron Rodgers TNF player prop picks
- Best bet
Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
(+112 at FanDuel) - SGP Pick
Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
200+ passing yards
Under 233.5 passing yards
(+743 at FanDuel)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Aaron Rodgers TNF prop pick
My best bet
Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+112 at FanDuel)
My analysis
New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers has thrown 2+ touchdown passes in three of his past four games and five of eight for the season. He has a deep and familiar collection of receivers, and his 76.8 PFF passing grade is right in line with his 75.9 mark during his final season with the Packers.
Make no mistake, Rodgers isn’t washed just yet.
And while this Houston Texans defense is legit, the injuries on offense are adding up. Q.J. Stroud hasn’t stood out on the road this season, either. He's averaging just 181.8 passing yards per game with a pedestrian 6.3 yards per attempt, so I’m expecting the New York defense to give Rodgers & Co. multiple short fields.
Plus, a quick look at the quarterbacks the Texans have faced shouldn’t be ignored alongside their high-end metrics against the pass, either.
Hat tip to slowing down Josh Allen at home in Week 5, but Sam Darnold and Jordan Love both had success against the traveling Houston defense and combined for seven passing touchdowns across those two games alone.
Rodgers is going to be up against a relentless pass rush all night, but with the help of his own defense, I expect him to have multiple red-zone opportunities.
Aaron Rodgers TNF same-game parlay
Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
200+ passing yards
Under 233.5 passing yards
The Texans can only play the quarterbacks on their schedule, so allowing the fifth-lowest EPA per dropback, second-lowest YPA, and ranking second in defensive DVOA still carries merit.
Houston also ranks fourth in pass-run win rate and fourth in pressure percentage, so as noted, Rodgers won’t have it easy behind a leaky offensive line.
Still, he has enough weapons to move the ball through the air, and this is a decent passing yards window to try and middle with uncorrelated legs.
Rodgers has thrown for 200+ yards in six straight with a respectable 7.1 YPA and 66.1 completion percentage across three home games during the stretch, so making it seven in a row without throwing it all over the yard is definitely in the cards.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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