The Chicago Bears head to the nation's capital on Sunday to face the Washington Commanders. This was supposed to be a duel between the top two picks in the draft in quarterback phenoms Caleb William and Jayden Daniels.
Despite Daniels being a game-time decision, my Bears vs. Commanders predictions still expect these teams to eclipse the total.
Here are my best free NFL picks for this October 27 clash. make sure to also read our Bears vs. Commanders prop picks!
Bears vs Commanders prediction
My best bet
Over 43 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The spread and the total have moved 4.5 points from the lookahead line due to the status of Jayden Daniels, who will be a game-time decision after injuring his ribs last week.
I don't expect the Washington Commanders brass to rush their franchise QB back to the field so I'll be surprised if he plays.
That said, a 4.5-point swing looks like an over-correction, especially since Washington rolled Carolina 40-7 last week with backup QB Marcus Mariota coming on in relief to complete 18 of 23 passes for 205 yards and two scores while rushing for another 34 yards.
Granted, the Chicago Bears have a significantly better defense than the Panthers but they're missing a pair of key starters with corner Kyler Gordon and safety Jaquan Brisker sidelined by injuries.
On the other side of the ball, Chicago's attack struggled in the first couple of weeks, with new players being integrated into the offense and Caleb Williams adjusting to the pros. But they've been humming over the last four weeks, ranking fifth in the league in EPA/play while Williams ranks fourth in EPA+CPOE.
Granted, they've played some of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Colts, Rams, Panthers, and Jaguars during that span, but the Commanders are also on that level, ranking 30th in defensive success rate.
However, their offense leads the league in EPA/play, and even with Mariota at QB, they should be able to do enough to help push this score above the total.
Bears vs Commanders same-game parlay
Over 43
Bears alt spread -1
D'Andre Swift Over 56.5 rushing yards
I think the 4.5-point swing toward the Bears is too much, but I like the visitors due to their significant edge on the defensive side of the ball. The Bears are second in the league in defensive EPA, and their ability to get stops should lead to a win.
After struggling through the first three weeks of the season, D'Andre Swift has rushed for more than 70 yards in three straight games while averaging 85.7 yards per game over that span. Washington is 27th in the league in defensive rush EPA and is getting gashed for 4.9 yards per rush attempt.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Bears vs Commanders odds
Bears vs Commanders live odds
Bears vs Commanders opening odds
- Spread: Chicago -2 | Washington +2
- Moneyline: Chicago -120 | Washington +100
- Over/Under: Over 45 | Under 45
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Bears vs Commanders spread and Over/Under analysis
- The lookahead line had Washington at -1.5, but after Daniels was injured in Week 7, the line reopened at Chicago -2 and ticked up to the key number of 3 by Friday.
- The lookahead total was at 47.5 but reopened at 46 before getting bet down to 43 by Wednesday.
- The Commanders are 5-1 straight up and 5-0-1 against the spread in their last six games.
- The Bears are fresh off a bye after beating the Jaguars 35-16 in Week 6, and they've gone 4-2 SU and 4-1-1 ATS this year.
Bears vs Commanders betting trend to know
The Commanders are 4-1 O/U in their last five games, while the Bears have cashed the Over in their last three contests. Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Commanders.
Bears vs Commanders game info
| Location: | Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-27, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Bears vs Commanders latest injuries
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