We have a big AFC South rematch from Week 1 on Sunday when the Houston Texans play host to the Indianapolis Colts.
My Colts vs. Texans predictions believe the running game will be key in the rematch, specifically for Joe Mixon.
Find out why I project Mixon to run wild in my NFL picks for Sunday, October 27.
Colts vs Texans prediction
My best bet
Joe Mixon Over 76.5 rushing yards (-135 at BetMGM)
My analysis
In a close game back in Week 1, where the Houston Texans won 29-27, Joe Mixon was the workhorse back and ran for 159 yards and a touchdown. He was injured in Week 2 after only nine carries and missed a few games. Mixon returned two weeks ago and ran for over 100 yards in each of the last two games.
The Indianapolis Colts not only struggled to stop Mixon in Week 1 but have struggled to stop almost any running back all season. Josh Jacobs ran for 151 yards in Week 2, Tank Bigsby ran for 101 yards in Week 5, and Tony Pollard ran for 93 yards in Week 6. The Colts rank 31st in the entire NFL in rushing yards allowed per game.
There is more to the Colts' bad rushing defense than just giving up total yards in a game. They also allow 4.6 yards per carry and have allowed 31 runs of 10+ yards, which is tied for the most in the NFL with the New York Giants. Indianapolis has a 14.1% stuff rate, which is the sixth-worst rate in the league.
One of the biggest reasons for Mixon’s resurgence in having a career-best 5.2 yards per carry is his ability to get runs outside the tackles in this Houston offense. Fifty-six of his 77 tackles this season are outside the tackles, and he's averaging 5.5 yards per carry on those runs. The Colts allow 56.2% of opposing runs to go outside the tackles.
This will be Mixon’s sixth career game against the Colts, and he averaged 81.0 yards per game in the previous five. I don't necessarily expect another 150+ yard game from Mixon, but his total is half that number.
That should be easy for Houston's RB1 to surpass against one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL in a script where the Texans should be playing from ahead.
Colts vs Texans same-game parlay
Joe Mixon Over 76.5 rushing yards
Josh Downs Under 3.5 receptions
Anthony Richardson Under 188.5 passing yards
To go along with our best bet, I'm going back to the well on avoiding Josh Downs when Anthony Richardson is the quarterback. He had only one catch on three targets last week in Richardson’s return after having 16 catches on 21 targets in the previous two games with Joe Flacco at the helm.
Finally, I will throw in Richardson’s Under on passing yards. The Texans have the fourth-best passing defense in the country and held him to only 212 passing yards in Week 1, which included 114 yards on just two plays. That is not the norm for a Texans pass defense only allowing 5.0 passing yards per play — second-best in the NFL.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Colts vs Texans odds
Colts vs Texans live odds
Colts vs Texans opening odds
- Spread: Indianapolis +5 (-110) | Houston -5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Indianapolis (+190) | Houston (-250)
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (-110) | Under 45.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Colts vs Texans spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread was Texans -4 before the season but opened at 6.5 before falling to 5.5 as of Friday night.
- The underdog has covered the spread in four of these teams' last five meetings.
- The underdog has covered the spread in four of these teams' last five meetings.
- The total was 47.5 before the season and opened at the same number this week before falling all the way to 45 as of Friday night.
Colts vs Texans betting trend to know
The Indianapolis Colts have covered the spread in 13 of their last 20 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Colts vs. Texans.
Colts vs Texans game info
| Location: | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-27, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Colts vs Texans latest injuries
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