The San Francisco 49ers are decimated by injuries to their receiver corps entering the weekend. Combine that with a one-dimensional Dallas Cowboys offense, and that has me betting the Under in their Sunday Night Football showdown.
I also expect a shootout in Cincinnati and a low-scoring snoozer at Mile High Stadium, as broken down in my favorite NFL picks for Week 8.
Week 8 totals bets
- Eagles vs Bengals o47.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
- Panthers vs Broncos u41.5 (-110 at Caesars)
- Cowboys vs 49ers u47 (-110 at SIA)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Week 8 Over/Under picks
Over/Under bet #1: Bengals vs Eagles Over 47.5
This matchup has shootout written all over it, as the Cincinnati Bengals boast an explosive aerial attack with star quarterback Joe Burrow airing the ball out to Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The Bengals currently rank sixth in the league in offensive EPA and fourth in dropback EPA.
Although the Philadelphia Eagles' pass rush was able to hide their deficiencies in the secondary last week against the Giants, Cincinnati has an improved offensive line and Burrow is unfazed under pressure.
Meanwhile, the Bengals' defense has been tormented on the ground, ranking dead-last in defensive rush success rate. They'll get shredded by a Philly offense spearheaded by Saquon Barkley, who's averaging 109.7 rushing yards per game on 6.1 yards per pop.
Pro Bowl wideout A.J. Brown also returned to the lineup two weeks ago to give the Eagles another deep threat opposite DeVonta Smith.
Over/Under bet #2: Panthers vs Broncos Under 41.5
To say the Carolina Panthers offense has been ugly would be an understatement. They're coming off a game where they compiled just 180 yards and seven points against a Commanders team that has one of the worst defenses in the league. The Panthers are last in the league in dropback EPA, and while they got a brief boost after replacing Bryce Young with Andy Dalton, his play bottomed out over the last four weeks.
On the other side of the ball, the Broncos are 25th in the league in offensive EPA and rookie QB Bo Nix has been one of the least efficient QBs in the league. Considering Denver has been running the ball extremely well in recent weeks, Sean Payton's team should focus on churning out yards on the ground against a Panthers defense that allows a league-high 162.1 rushing yards per game.
The Broncos are 11-point home favorites, and if they get out to an early lead, they'll lean on their ground game to drain the clock.
Over/Under bet #3: Cowboys vs 49ers Under 47
The San Francisco 49ers lost All-Pro wideout Brandon Aiyuk to a season-ending injury last week, Pro Bowl tight end George Kittle is banged up, and No. 3 WR Jauan Jennings will miss his second-straight game due to a hip injury. Deebo Samuel is also listed as questionable after being hospitalized earlier this week due to pneumonia.
With San Francisco's aerial attack hamstrung by injuries, Kyle Shanahan will likely be even more reliant on their efficient ground game. That should allow the Niners to control the clock against a Dallas Cowboys team that ranks 29th in average time of possession and last in defensive rush EPA.
On offense, the Cowboys haven't been able to run the ball and average a league-low 3.5 yards per rush attempt. Their passing game has essentially just been Dak Prescott throwing it up to CeeDee Lamb, which has led to them ranking just 23rd in dropback EPA.
The 49ers should have no problem drawing up a defensive game plan to limit a predictable Dallas offense that hasn't scored more than 20 points in three straight games. Keep in mind that Mike McCarthy's offense has struggled in recent years against the Niners — with the Cowboys scoring just 17, 12, and 10 points in the last three meetings.
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