After five weeks stuck in reverse, the Miami Dolphins have fresh hope as they welcome back Tua Tagovailoa for Sunday’s matchup against the Arizona Cardinals.
However, they face an uphill battle to claw their way into the playoff hunt, and my Cardinals vs Dolphins predictions pour some cold water on Tua’s return being a fix-all for the hosts.
Check out my NFL picks for this October 27 clash, with the Miami quarterback front and center. Kickoff for this afternoon matchup is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, with the game airing on FOX.
Cardinals vs Dolphins prediction
My best bet
Tua Tagovailoa Under 248.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
It’s natural to have mixed feelings about Tua Tagovailoa’s return from his latest concussion, but he’s passed the NFL protocol and will have the chance to spark a Miami Dolphins offense that’s averaging just 11.7 points per game this year.
However, as much as his teammates are visibly emotional about having him back on the field, it will be no small task for Tagovailoa to spearhead an NFL offense after missing multiple weeks. Sure, Tua has a few practices under his belt, but nothing can replicate the speed of a real game.
Given my uncertainty about Tua's immediate impact and the possibility of a hit ending his day early, I’m fading Tagovailoa's passing yards prop in Week 8. Miami has every reason to take a cautious approach here, leaning on running backs De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert while limiting the dropbacks in collapsing pockets. Ultimately, short and quick passes should be at the top of Mike McDaniel’s playsheet.
The big-play potential of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle is always a threat to take a chunk off this passing yards total, but it’s just as likely that we’ll see some clunky three-and-outs as the Dolphins’ playmakers get back on the same page. Although the Arizona Cardinals' pass defense has struggled this season, allowing almost 236.9 yards per game through the air, expect an unspectacular return for Tua on Sunday.
Cardinals vs Dolphins same-game parlay
Tua Tagovailoa Under 248.5 passing yards
James Conner Over 70.5 rushing yards
Cardinals +4.5
When James Conner is rolling, the Cardinals become a tough team to beat. Conner has racked up a combined 309 rushing yards in Arizona’s three wins this season, and the visitors’ game plan is sure to revolve around a busy day for their lead back.
That makes the Over on his 70.5 rushing yards prop an easy choice for the second leg of my SGP — and Conner has cruised past that number four times this year. He leads all running backs with 16 broken tackles through seven games, and only Derrick Henry can top Conner’s 293 yards after contact.
I’m also taking the points with the visitors. Arizona is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games, and there’s another gear for this team once the Kyler Murray-Marvin Harrison Jr. connection is fully in sync.
Meanwhile, Miami has been unwatchable over the last few weeks. Although Tagovailoa is clearly an upgrade over Tyler Huntley and Skylar Thompson, I’m doubtful that plugging Tua back into the line-up will paper over all the cracks for McDaniel’s men.
The Cardinals showed their grittier side in the 17-15 win over the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday night, and I see the visitors keeping the scoreline close at Hard Rock Stadium.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Cardinals vs Dolphins odds
Cardinals vs Dolphins live odds
Cardinals vs Dolphins opening odds
- Spread: Arizona +125 | Miami -150
- Moneyline: Arizona +3 | Miami -3
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 | Under 47.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Cardinals vs Dolphins spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Dolphins enter as favorites despite a 2-8 ATS mark in their last 10 contests, including a 1-5 ATS record this season.
- The Cardinals have hit the 2H moneyline in six of their past eight games, and they’re 3-1 ATS in their four prior road matches.
- Arizona has only hit the Over once in its past five contests, but the visitors rank fifth in the NFL in rushing yards per game (150.3).
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Miami has cashed the 3Q Under in 11 of its past 16 contests.
Cardinals vs Dolphins betting trend to know
The Under has been a winning ticket in eight of Miami’s last 10 outings, and the hosts have only scored 40 total points since Tagovailoa’s concussion in Week 2. Find more NFL betting trends for Cardinals vs. Dolphins.
Cardinals vs Dolphins game info
| Location: | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-27, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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