The Arizona Cardinals head east to face the Miami Dolphins in Week 8, a game that could mark the return of Tua Tagovailoa.
Kyler Murray and Tagovailoa are both capable of making some exciting plays, but my NFL picks are not counting on a massive amount of fireworks going off on Sunday, October 27. My Cardinals vs. Dolphins SGP picks will be anchored by the Under.
Cardinals vs Dolphins SGP for Week 8
Under 47.5 (alt. total)
Kyler Murray Under 208.5 passing yards
Cardinals +3.5
I grabbed the Under at 48.5 on Monday afternoon, prior to a significant dropoff following another lousy offensive performance by the Arizona Cardinals on Monday Night Football. I'm comfortable adding the alternate Under of 47.5, just above one of the key numbers of 47, to kickstart this SGP.
The Cardinals have averaged just 16.2 points per game since Week 3, and the competition in that span wasn't all that stiff. Other than its recent showdown with the Chargers, Arizona faced no defenses ranked inside the Top 8 in points allowed per game over its last five games.
Even with Tagovailoa under center, the Miami Dolphins were not lighting the world on fire through 1.5 games, generating only 20 points on the Jaguars in Week 1 and just 10 through one half vs. the Bills. The Fins are 1-4 without Tua thus far, and that lone win can be chalked up to their defense as the offense has topped out at 15 points in that span.
When looking at the Week 8 player props for this game, the Under on Kyler Murray's passing yards prop presents the best value.
Murray will be on the road vs. the seventh-rated passing defense by yards allowed per game through seven weeks. He's finished below 208.5 passing yards in four of his last five games, and that can be directly attributed to his lack of passing attempts.
The dual-threat pivot is averaging just 28 passing attempts per game this year, well below his previous low of 33.5 attempts per game last year. While that's bound to increase soon, I don't think that will be in the Arizona game plan on Sunday, as the Dolphins rank 19th by yards allowed per rushing attempt.
Miami should expect a steady dose of James Conner, who will keep the clock and the chains moving. Because the Dolphins have been such a mess offensively this season, my final Cardinals vs. Dolphins prediction will be Arizona covering the 3.5-point spread.
Not intended for use in MA.
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