It’s a Super Bowl rematch as the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs head west to take on a San Francisco 49ers squad needing a win to get above .500.
Both teams have injuries to playmakers, and I expect that to open the door for a player on each side to see heavy usage in my Chiefs vs. 49ers player props and NFL picks for Sunday, October 20.
Chiefs vs 49ers props
Aiyuk Over 4.5 rec (-115 at BetMGM)
Hunt Over 48.5 rush yds (-120 at BetMGM)- Mahomes Under 1.5 passing TDs (-125 at BetMGM)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Chiefs vs 49ers props
Prop bet #1: Brandon Aiyuk Over 4.5 receptions
The San Francisco 49ers have been dealing with all kinds of injuries to their pass catchers this season, but Brandon Aiyuk remains healthy. With Jauan Jennings ruled out, Deebo Samuel dealing with a wrist injury, and Ricky Pearsall likely seeing minimal work in his debut, plenty will fall on Aiyuk’s plate.
San Francisco’s passing attack is second in the NFL in yards per game (262.0), fifth in EPA per dropback, and Brock Purdy is sixth in EPA per play among QBs. Clearly, Kyle Shanahan’s passing game is working right now, and given the circumstances, that should mean Aiyuk sees frequent targets against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Kansas City’s defense is just 15th in EPA per dropback while allowing the 13th-most passing yards per game in the league (217.0). And while Aiyuk has had a slower start to the year, he’s still 25th in yards per route run (1.76) and 22nd in YAC per reception (4.3) among players with at least 30 targets per PFF.
He’s also been getting more looks in recent weeks. After catching just six passes on 10 targets in the 49ers’ first two games, he’s averaging 4.2 receptions per game on 7.7 targets over the last four — twice going Over 4.5 receptions.
Plus, three of Kansas City’s five starting defensive backs allow a completion percentage above 66%, with two allowing more than 78% of the targets coming their way to be completed.
So while Steve Spagnuolo’s bend but don’t break defense could limit big plays for Aiyuk, he should still be able to reach five-plus receptions.
Prop bet #2: Kareem Hunt Over 48.5 rushing yards
A few weeks ago, Kareem Hunt wasn’t even on an NFL roster. Now he’s got more 100-yard games this season than Christian McCaffrey.
In the two games since he was signed, Hunt has run for 69 yards and 102. The Chiefs clearly aren’t afraid to feed the 29-year-old; he had 27 carries last week against the New Orleans Saints.
The 49ers' defense is one of the best in the league, but this line is fairly low, given Hunt’s averaging 85.5 rushing yards per game. And while San Francisco ranks Top 10 in rushing yards allowed per game (101.0), it’s outside of the Top 10 in yards per carry (4.4).
On top of that, the Chiefs have been reluctant to utilize other backs with Isiah Pacheco out. Meaning, Hunt’s usage is a large reason why he should be capable of going Over 48.5 rushing yards for the third straight game.
He played 63% of the offensive snaps last week and received 27 of 32 carries that went to running backs (84.3%). Even the week before, after he had just signed to the team, he still played 45% of the snaps and took 66.6% of the carries.
Hunt’s been an impactful runner, too. In two games, he’s racked up 102 yards after contact and forced 10 missed tackles.
So, between the 49ers defense focusing on Patrick Mahomes and Hunt seeing the bulk of the running back snaps, he should rush for at least 49 yards based on usage alone.
Prop bet #3: Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 passing touchdowns
It’s been a strange start to the season for Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are 5-0, but he’s not looked like the superstar MVP candidate we’ve all come to expect every Sunday.
Mahomes is 19th in passing touchdowns this season (six) and second in interceptions (six), plus he’s thrown just one touchdown in his last two games — which is why these odds imply a 55.56% probability he’ll throw for fewer than two against San Francisco.
He’s been borderline bad at times, with just five big-time throws to seven turnover-worthy plays this season. To put those numbers into perspective, he has as many turnover-worthy plays as Will Levis and fewer big-time throws than Andy Dalton.
It doesn’t help the Chiefs have been down Hollywood Brown and Rashee Rice while Travis Kelce’s age has begun to show. That’s led Kansas City to rely on JuJu Smith-Schuster, who's been limited in practice all week with a hamstring injury.
The Chiefs’ offensive line has also been a part of the problem with it struggling more in pass protection this season. Trey Smith and Jawaan Taylor have given up 19 pressures in five games, and Wanya Morris, who replaced rookie Kingsley Suamataia, has allowed eight in three starts.
Now they have to block Nick Bosa, who’s third in the NFL in pressures (35), and Leonard Floyd, who’s 26th (20).
The 49ers defense ranks 10th in EPA per dropback and has given up just eight touchdown passes in six games. Sam Darnold is the only QB to throw for more than one touchdown against the 49ers this season.
Mahomes is going to have a tough time going Over this number after throwing for fewer than two against similarly talented pass defenses in his last two games.
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