The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons meet for the second time this season at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday, October 27, after the NFC South foes lit up the scoreboard in Week 5.
Our top Falcons vs. Buccaneers predictions and same-game parlay NFL picks predict another high-scoring affair, with Atlanta running back Bijan Robinson set for another big game in the trenches.
Falcons vs Buccaneers SGP for Week 8
Over 45.5
Bijan Robinson Over 62.5 rushing yards
Rachaad White Under 38.5 rushing yards
- Over 45.5
- Bijan Robinson Over 62.5 rushing yards
- Rachaad White Under 38.5 rushing yards
The Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers combined for 66 points to skyrocket Over the closing 43.5 total in Week 5, and I expect the two offenses to click again on Sunday.
The Bucs took a major hit by losing wide receivers Mike Evans (hamstring) and Chris Godwin (ankle) to injuries last week, and they’re both already ruled out for the foreseeable future. Still, I have confidence in Baker Mayfield and offensive coordinator Liam Coen to put points on the board.
After all, Mayfield sports a sixth-ranked 7.9 yards per attempt and third-ranked 70.5 completion percentage while also ranking seventh in EPA per play and second in success rate.
Additionally, I don't expect either defense to batten down the hatches, given their middling to bottom-third statistics.
| Category | Falcons | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed per game | 24.1 (22nd) | 26.0 (28th) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.3 (18th) | 5.9 (28th) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.043 (23rd) | 0.036 (22nd) |
| PFF defense grade | 65.7 (16th) | 62.8 (23rd) |
| Defensive DVOA | 6.4% (24th) | -1.3% (14th) |
| Pass-rush win rate | 36% (25th) | 39% (22nd) |
| Run-stop win rate | 28% (28th) | 28% (29th) |
Turning to Bijan Robinson, his rushing yardage total against the Bucs in Week 5 is deceiving because he finished with just 61 on 12 carries. He impressively averaged 5.1 yards per tote with a season-high 3.92 yards after contact per attempt and 45.9 breakaway percentage.
Bijan is going to receive more than 12 carries this week, and the Tampa stop unit isn’t tough against the run. The Bucs have allowed the third-highest yards per carry (5.28) while ranking 29th in run-stop win rate and 28th in run-defense grade per PFF.
The Tampa backfield has morphed into a full-on committee, with Rachaad White splitting snaps, carries, and targets with Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker. White went for 72 rushing yards against Atlanta in Week 5, but 56 came on a single carry, and Tucker didn’t play an offensive snap.
Atlanta also holds opposing RBs to a below-average 4.29 yards per carry, and the injuries to the Tampa Bay receiving corps should allow the Falcons to be more stout against the rush in this rematch, too.
Not intended for use in MA.
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