The Miami Hurricanes will look to take it to a struggling rival on Saturday night as they host the Florida State Seminoles at Hard Rock Stadium.
The undefeated Hurricanes have been scoring at will this season, which has me targeting the Over in my Florida State vs. Miami predictions.
I’ll take a deeper look at why we can expect plenty of scoring in this matchup in my free college football picks for October 26.
Florida State vs Miami prediction and best bet
My best bet
Over 54.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
At the start of the season, many had circled this game as one of the biggest ones on the ACC schedule, but only one of these teams has lived up to expectations. That’s the Miami Hurricanes, who have ridden an explosive offense to a 7-0 record and look poised to potentially get a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff.
Miami is averaging 48.3 ppg on the season, which ranks second in the country. The Hurricanes are putting up 577.3 yards per game and 8.0 yards per play, both of which lead the nation.
Miami has been especially unstoppable in the passing game, where senior quarterback Cam Ward has thrown for 24 touchdown passes and 2,538 yards. Ward leads the nation in QBR, and has already led the offense to four 50+ point games this season. It's no wonder he's one of the Heisman odds favorites heading into Week 9.
It's hard to imagine that the 1-6 Florida State Seminoles will be the team to slow down the Hurricanes.
If you were trying to find a bright spot in Florida State’s season, it would be its defense, which has at least been adequate – if nowhere near the level of a team that many expected to be one of the top national title contenders heading into the season.
Teams haven’t had to throw much against Florida State, as opponents are usually playing from ahead. But when they have thrown the ball, the opposition is averaging 7.3 yards per attempt and a 60.8% completion percentage. It’s all but certain that Ward will shred this secondary.
What’s less certain is how well the Florida State offense will perform against a Miami defense that has been shaky as of late. In their last three games, the Hurricanes are allowing an average of 39 ppg. Florida State has only managed to score as many as 20 points once this year, so it’s hard to believe the Seminoles keep up with the Miami offense, but this should be one of their more productive nights.
But even if I’m wrong about that, I still like the Over here. Miami is capable of surpassing the total on their own, and the Seminoles will get enough points against the struggling Hurricanes defense to leave little doubt about the right side for bettors to take.
Florida State vs Miami same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 54.5
Miami -20.5
Xavier Restrepo anytime TD
While I didn’t pull the trigger on Miami as my best bet, I still expect the Hurricanes to dominate this matchup. That makes it easy to put together a parlay on this game, as I’ll take Miami to cover the nearly three-touchdown spread to go along with the Over.
I see little chance that Florida State does much of anything to slow down the Hurricanes offense, which might be able to hit this total of its own. As a part of that onslaught, I’m taking Xavier Restrepo to score a touchdown.
The senior wide-out has already scored six times this year and is the top target in the Miami passing game, with 39 receptions on the season. I expect he’ll get plenty of looks against Florida State, and that should include at least one trip to the end zone.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Florida State vs Miami odds
Florida State vs Miami live odds
Florida State vs Miami opening odds
- Florida State vs. Miami spread: Miami -19.5
- Florida State vs. Miami moneyline: Florida State +1,000, Miami -2,000
- Florida State vs. Miami Over/Under: 54.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Florida State vs Miami spread and Over/Under analysis
- Miami is 4-3 against the spread this season, while Florida State has a 2-5 ATS mark on the year.
- The Over is 6-0-1 in Miami’s games this season. The Under has the 6-1 advantage in Florida State’s games.
- The Seminoles are playing to an average total of 40 points per game, with Miami averaging a total of 70.9 ppg.
Florida State vs Miami betting trend to know
The Over is 9-0-1 in Miami’s last 10 overall. Find more college football betting trends for Florida State vs Miami.
Florida State vs Miami game info
| Location: | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-26-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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