It can be all too easy this time of year to get distracted by the off-field mechanics of college football.
Sometimes that distraction is which coach will be next to be fired (Billy Napier has lasted far longer than expected!), sometimes it is staring at the meaningless polls trying to anticipate the first College Football Playoff selection committee rankings due in less than two weeks, and sometimes it is getting too hung up on conference tiebreakers.
The latter rabbit hole cost me some time this week, but let’s not delve into those thoughts just yet. Why not just yet? Well, looking at the standings makes it clear that those tiebreakers may never come to be reality.
In the Big Ten and the SEC, the two massive conferences without divisions, head-to-head matchups should lend clarity as November progresses. Only the ACC induces distinct consternation, with Clemson, Miami, and SMU all barrelling toward unbeaten seasons. But for the time being, to overcome the distraction, keep half an eye on Pittsburgh and Duke.
The Panthers play both SMU and Clemson, getting the latter in Pittsburgh. The Blue Devils face both Miami and, this weekend, SMU. Rereading those two sentences, clearly the Mustangs may have a stumble ahead of them.
This is also why we should instead focus on the latest betting news and college football picks for Week 9.
College football betting news for Week 9
- Pondering UNLV
- Genuine Playoff Implications
- Genuine Playoff Implications, pt. ii
- Bonus Bet from Douglas
- Bonus Bet from Douglas, pt. ii
- A Bet for Every Saturday Window
- Tuesday pod recap
- Saturday pod teaser
Douglas's CFB news and notes
Pondering UNLV
This needs to be first in this Friday column because Boise State faces UNLV tonight at 10:30 ET.
This may be the biggest game of the weekend, so let’s go grab a second subhead...
Genuine Playoff Implications
UNLV and Boise State are two of the four teams sitting atop the Mountain West at 2-0. San Diego State still has to face both of them on the road, so there isn't much thought given to the Aztecs’ genuine chances at winning the conference.
However, Colorado State could quite conceivably reach December unbeaten in conference play, albeit already with three losses in non-conference play, effectively removing the Rams from any Playoff pondering.
Tonight’s Boise State vs. UNLV game should greatly alter the odds of which Group of Five champion will earn the automatic qualifier spot into the Playoff. Mostly for future reference, BetMGM currently lists Boise State as -110 to make the Playoff, followed by UNLV at +600 and Tulane at +700 among Group of Five teams.
But yours truly has not bet this ga... —thank you, Neil Parker, for checking in late on a Friday afternoon — as UNLV +4 is only just now available and that's been the number I have waited on.
While I have preseason value in a Mountain West +650 future for the Rebels, +4 brings too much value for tonight to ignore. The Rebels offense is too explosive and fast-paced to not be a live threat for a backdoor cover.
Boise State could be up 17 in the fourth quarter, and a backdoor cover would still be viable, simply based on the variance UNLV would then create.
In a 45-minute show, @Covers_Caley and I really spent nearly six full minutes on Boise State at UNLV, didn't we?
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 23, 2024
As we should have.
Neither of us has bet that Friday drama yet, but if we can get just a touch of movement on the spread or the total, we are ready to ... pic.twitter.com/8MEh3qPcrg
Let’s create a new classification of a Friday bet, simply based on the opportunity presented in no small part thanks to Neil’s prompt.
🏈Friday Timing Bet from Douglas: UNLV +4 (-110 at DraftKings)🏈
Genuine Playoff Implications, pt. ii
The loser of Missouri at Alabama may well be out of the Playoff conversation, and with the Tide two-touchdown favorites, that is bad news for the Tigers considering Brady Cook’s banged-up ankle.
This is not being hyperbolic. If Alabama loses, that is a third loss, and only one out of the last 10 seasons would have seen a three-loss team reach a hypothetical 12-team Playoff.
If Missouri loses, it will no longer have any chance at a win worthy of acknowledgment by the selection committee. The best teams the Tigers would have beaten would be Auburn and South Carolina.
That is not going to get anyone into the Playoff.
The delight of the 12-team Playoff is it makes a game like Missouri at Alabama matter. In the four-team Playoff era, the Tide would already be eliminated from all consideration, and the Tigers’ schedule would have rendered them an afterthought as soon as they lost at Texas A&M a few weeks ago.
Now this game holds some importance.
Bonus Bet from Douglas
There is very little, if any, indication that Georgia Tech quarterback Haynes King will play in Blacksburg this weekend, and that simply renders the Yellow Jackets’ offense too toothless to put any faith in.
Meanwhile, Virginia Tech has figured out how to turn its offense loose: Turn quarterback Kyren Drones loose. In his last five games, Drones has rushed 42 times for 318 yards, a 7.6 yards per rush average with sacks adjusted.
Since cutting Drones loose, the Hokies have cleared their team total in four of five games and done so by an average of 7.1 points per game, even including the misstep. They have also covered the spread in four of five games, with the exception being a one-possession loss to Rutgers (before the Knights’ season started to unravel due to injuries).
Remembering Drones’ best skills re-established Virginia Tech as a genuinely quality ACC team, and its defense was always considered quality. That combination should readily outpace Georgia Tech sans offensive linchpin King.
🏈Bonus Bet from Douglas: Virginia Tech -10 (-110 at BetMGM)🏈
Bonus Bet from Douglas, pt. ii
Let’s keep this one simple: Miami and Florida State are true rivals.
This rivalry fits alongside ones like Oklahoma vs. Texas and — this is meant sincerely — Wisconsin vs. Minnesota, in that the programs hold justifiable and comparable aspirations while significant portions of the rosters knew each other and played against one another in high school.
As bad as the Seminoles are this season, the Hurricanes will not overlook them. Too many matchups will be personal.
That may make you want to consider Florida State to cover +21 based on emotions alone. However, realize the ‘Noles fail to put both literal and game-state pressure on the opposing quarterback.
And if you're not hassling Heisman-hopeful quarterback Cam Ward... good luck.
All of this is to say that, yes, FSU hasn't been good at forcing third/fourth-and-longs and the O has put the D in bad positions but also the college football gods really hate FSU this year.
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) October 22, 2024
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🏈Bonus Bet from Douglas: Miami -21 (-108 at DraftKings)🏈
A Bet for Every Saturday Window
You do not need to always have a bet down. You shouldn’t. You should bet only when you see clear value. But if you insist on having at least one piece of action for every moment of Saturday …
12:00 ET — Notre Dame vs. Navy Over 50.5 (-110 at FanDuel as of Friday afternoon)
3:30 ET — Missouri Team Total Under 14.5 (-102 at FanDuel)
7:00 ET — Kansas at Kansas State Over 54.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
After Dark — Cincinnati +6.5 at Colorado (-105 at BetMGM)
College Football 134 Tuesday recap + Saturday sneak peek
All Tuesday Value Is Good Value
“College Football 134” records twice a week for a pile of reasons. One of them is to try to give you a headstart on some weekend lines. Suggesting a bet on Western Michigan in the first half by 9.5 may have seemed far from entertaining, but that line is now -10.5, so the value was undeniable.
There is value to be had in subscribing and listening to that Tuesday episode as it hits your feeds on Tuesday nights or perhaps on your Wednesday morning commute.
⚡️Listen to Tuesday's episode of the Covers 134 pod here⚡️
LIVE SATURDAY MORNING
There is not a question Douglas Farmer and Andrew Caley would not answer during the Saturday morning live show. All you have to do is ask it. Preferably, it is about college football. Curious about Washington at Indiana? Have at ‘em. Wondering about Utah’s broken offense against woeful Houston? Great. We are here for you. If you want to ask for life advice, what’s the worst that can happen?
Now how about a negroni? Cheers.
Filing a column from the back of my Jeep? Been there, done that.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 25, 2024
While tending to this audience? We'll, I suppose that's worth delaying my drink. pic.twitter.com/zCAofrHCmT
Check out the College Football 134 podcast Saturday pregame show at 9 a.m. ET on the Covers YouTube channel.
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