All 32 teams are in action this Thanksgiving week and we have 10 games to enjoy this Sunday before Sunday Night Football. That means 10 games to pick the first touchdown scorer in. We’re going to use the best available data to project who will find the endzone first in their matchups.
Here are my best three NFL picks and First Touchdown Scorer props.
Week 13 first touchdown scorer props
- A.J. Brown (+1000 at DraftKings)
- Nico Collins (+750 at DraftKings)
- Bucky Irving (+650 at Bet365)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Week 13 first TD picks
First TD prop bet #1: A.J. Brown
Best odds: +1000 at DraftKings
The Philadelphia Eagles' visit to Baltimore to face the Baltimore Ravens gives us plenty of great offensive starts to choose from. However, our pick for the first touchdown scorer has to be A.J. Brown. Both of these teams are good against the run, with the Ravens ranked at No. 2 and the Eagles ranked at No. 7. The Eagles are far better against the pass than the Ravens, who have given up the second-most yards through the air.
With that in mind, we’re picking an Eagles pass catcher to score first, and that has to be AJ Brown. With the Eagles becoming the Saquon Barkley show, it feels like Brown has largely been forgotten, but he’s one of the league’s best. He also comes into this on the back of a touchdown against the Rams, ending a four-game streak without scoring.
First TD prop bet #2: Nico Collins
Best odds: +750 at DraftKings
It feels like Nico Collins is one of the best shouts to score on Sunday. Given the quality of the Houston Texans roster and the fact they have something to play for, they should be scoring first. The Jacksonville Jaguars defense is pretty bad across the board, but they are absolutely terrible against the pass, ranking dead last in yardage allowed, as well as giving up 13 touchdowns to wide receivers in 11 games.
He’s scored four times this season but has only played seven times and has been getting elite volume in terms of targets. Since returning from injury, he’s seen his catches increase from four to five, as his targets have increased from seven to nine. A 5-92-1 stat line against a great Titans secondary was impressive. He’s C.J. Stroud’s favorite target, a big-bodied 6’4 wideout who is still tied for the lead in red zone targets despite missing five games.
First TD prop bet #3: Bucky Irving
Best odds: +650 at bet365
The Bucky Irving takeover of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers backfield is now nearing completion. Since the beginning of the season, it was clear that Rachaad White wasn’t the answer and that Bucky Irving had an x-factor that White didn’t. He’s now marginally getting the majority of carries, with three more than White in the past two games. He’s the better back, at least in terms of rushing the ball, as his 5.4 yards per carry, compared with White’s 3.7 shows.
He now has a perfect matchup against the NFL’s worst run defense, the Carolina Panthers, who have given up 160.5 rushing yards per game and lead the NFL in touchdowns (16) allowed to running backs. With Irving now integral to the Bucs’ ground game, and having scored in his past two games, we should see another big performance from the rookie.
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