The battered Jacksonville Jaguars head to Ohio to face the Cleveland Browns in Week 14 odds. Both teams have fought through their share of injuries this season including the Jags losing franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence to an ankle injury last week.
With the likely absence of Lawrence on Sunday, NFL odds for this showdown have flipped, with lookahead lines installing Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite but now favoring the Browns at -3. Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for Jaguars vs. Browns on December 10.
Jaguars vs Browns odds
Jaguars vs Browns predictions
The Jacksonville Jaguars lost Trevor Lawrence to a high ankle injury in last week's overtime loss to the Bengals. While Lawrence hasn't officially been ruled out for Sunday, it would be a complete shocker if he played given the history of such injuries.
C.J. Beathard came on in relief last week and completed 9-of-10 passes for 63 yards. Beathard is more experienced than many backup passers around the league and started 12 games for San Francisco between 2017 and 2020. However, he has poor arm strength and despite playing for a QB-friendly system with the Niners he completed just 58/6% of his passes with 6.9 yards per attempt.
Beathard isn't a terrible backup and I'm bullish on third-string option Nathan Rourke (who was phenomenal in college and a briefly in the CFL) but either option is a major downgrade from Lawrence especially with the other injuries the Jags have on offense.
Top receiver Christian Kirk is out with a core injury, while third receiver Zay Jones and running back Travis Etienne who has struggled while battling through a rib injury, are both listed as questionable. Left tackle Cam Robinson is also on the IL and his backup Walker Little (whose poor blocking led to that Lawrence injury) could be out as well.
That's bad news on the road in cold and windy weather against a stingy Cleveland Browns defense. The Browns lead the league in defensive EPA and success rate and they've been even better at home where they hold opponents to just 10.2 points per game.
The Browns have been dealing with injuries on offense all year but they're in better hands with Joe Flacco at QB. The 38-year-old was signed by the Browns just two weeks ago but threw for 254 yards and two touchdowns in his Cleveland debut last week.
He's not what he was five years ago but he's still a major upgrade from P.J. Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. With his arm strength and experience he should be able to get the job done against a Jaguars defense that's 22nd in EPA since Week 5.
My best bet: Browns -3 (-115 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Jaguars vs Browns same-game parlay
Browns -2.5
Jerome Ford Over 48.5 rushing yards
Result of first Jaguars drive: Punt
With bet365 only offering spreads with a hook for SGP plays we can push this line under that key number of 3.
Jerome Ford had just 19 yards on nine carries this week but that means you're getting a better number on Cleveland's most productive runner. Ford has rushed for more than 70 yards in four games this year and he should be able to soar over his rushing yards total against a Jags defense that's 27th in defensive rush EPA since Week 5.
Even at full strength, Jacksonville's offense has struggled with execution. The Jags are just 20th in the league in third-down conversion rate (37.1%) and are averaging a modest 4.6 ppg during the first quarter. They'll likely find themselves punting early against a Browns stop unit that has been dominant at home, allowing just 2.3 first-quarter ppg and having an opponent third-down conversion rate of 19.5%.
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Jaguars vs Browns spread and Over/Under analysis
This line has seen massive movement, with the Jags sitting at -3 on the lookahead line before flipping to +3 following the injury to Lawrence. However, sportsbooks have hesitated to exceed -3. While a few operators have begun offering -3.5, most are opting to increase the vig at the lower number.
The total has also seen plenty of movement, with the O/U plummeting from 36 to 31. This is partly attributed to Lawrence's injury and also influenced by the weather conditions for this game, with temperatures expected in the 30s and anticipated wind gusts of up to 28 mph.
The Browns are coming off a 36-19 road loss to the Rams but their defense has been far better at home than on the road.
The Jaguars lost in overtime to the Bengals last week but had gone 7-1 SU and ATS in their previous eight games. However, they'll have a tough time staying afloat with all their injuries on offense.
Jaguars vs Browns betting trend to know
The Browns are 5-1 ATS at home this season. Find more NFL betting trends for Jaguars vs. Browns.
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Jaguars vs Browns game info
| Location: | Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Sunday, December 10, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NFL Network |
| Opening odds: | Browns +3, 36 |
Jaguars vs Browns latest injuries
Jaguars vs Browns weather
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