The Detroit Lions are set to host their first playoff game in *checks almanac* 30 years as they welcome the Los Angeles Rams to Ford Field tonight, kicking off their road to Super Bowl LVIII.
This is an intriguing matchup between a pair of teams that swapped starting quarterbacks three years ago. And even though former Lions play-caller Matthew Stafford led Los Angeles to a Super Bowl in 2022, counterpart Jared Goff sparked Detroit to a long-awaited NFC North title this season.
NFL odds have the Lions as 3-point favorites, and the O/U of 51.5 is the highest total of all the Wild Card odds. Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for the Rams vs. Lions on Sunday, January 14.
To fill out your betting card, don't forget to also consult our Rams vs. Lions props and spotlight on Matthew Stafford odds.
Rams vs Lions odds
Rams vs Lions predictions
While the Detroit Lions finished the season with a 12-5 record, their offense did most of the heavy lifting with their defense struggling over the final two months. Since Week 7, the Lions were 27th in defensive EPA/Play while ranking 30th in defensive dropback EPA.
Although the Lions allowed 21.3 points per game in their final three weeks of the season, they allowed the Cowboys and Vikings (twice) to move the ball downfield at will and were fortunate that both teams struggled with turnovers.
That's bad news against a Los Angeles Rams attack that is fully healthy and red hot. Rams had star wideout Cooper Kupp injured at the start of the season and then lost running back Kyren Williams for a month but both are back at full strength and the offense is rolling.
If you omit their meaningless Week 18 clash when they rested Matthew Stafford, Kupp, and Williams, the Rams had scored at least 26 points in their previous six games. Over that span, they averaged 31.3 ppg and were a Top-5 offense in both dropback EPA and rush EPA.
Williams has been one of the biggest breakout players in the NFL this year rushing for 1,002 yards over his last nine games. Meanwhile, rookie WR Puka Nacua racked up 1,486 receiving yards giving Stafford another high-end receiver to complement Kupp. With all those weapons expect the Rams to eclipse their team total against a struggling Lions stop unit.
My best bet: Rams team total Over 24.5 (+100 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Rams vs Lions same-game parlay
Rams team total Over 24.5
Kyren Williams Under 82.5 rushing yards
Matthew Stafford Over 272.5 passing yards
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As bad as the Lions defense has looked over the last couple of months, they've actually been solid against the run. They finished the season fifth in the league in defensive rush EPA, which is even more impressive when you consider that they get shredded by mobile QBs.
Detroit held opposing running backs to a league-low 60.5 rushing yards per game and 3.5 yards per rush attempt. That run defense also got a boost last week when their best interior lineman Alim McNeil returned to the lineup after a four-game absence.
With Detroit's stop unit stingy against the run, expect Rams coach Sean McVay to target a vulnerable secondary that's 30th in the NFL in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.2). Over the last three weeks the Lions allowed 807 passing yards in two games against Vikings backup quarterback Nick Mullens and surrendered 345 passing yards to Dak Prescott. Stafford has thrown for more than 275 yards in four of his last five games and he looks poised for a big game in his return to Detroit.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Rams vs Lions spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Lions at -4 and the O/U at 51. Early money has come in on the Rams, moving the spread to that key number of 3.0 while the total has ticked up to 51.5.
The total is the highest of the week, which isn't surprising considering both teams have been highly efficient on offense and vulnerable on defense. While I mentioned Detroit's poor defense, L.A.'s stop unit has holes as well and was 22nd in the league in defensive DVOA.
The Rams enter the postseason with plenty of momentum after going 6-1 SU and ATS in their final seven games. The Lions went 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in their final four contests. While they won last week to end their season on a high note, they chose not to rest their starters, and tight end Sam LaPorta injured his knee and looks doubtful for Sunday.
Rams vs Lions betting trend to know
The Rams are 7-0 to the Over on their team total in their last seven games. Find more NFL betting trends for Rams vs. Lions.
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Rams vs Lions game info
| Location: | Ford Field, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Sunday, January 14, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
| Opening odds: | Lions -4, 51 O/U |
Rams vs Lions latest injuries
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