The Philadelphia Eagles have erupted out of the gates in Super Bowl LIX, holding a commanding 24-0 lead over the Kansas City Chiefs.
Live betting markets and Super Bowl odds are alive and well, and I've found the best second-half NFL picks for what's looking like a lopsided game.
Super Bowl 59 second-half pick
Pick: Eagles 2H team total Under 7.5 (-146 at Caesars)
The Philadelphia Eagles have been stellar on both sides of the ball. They’ve amassed 179 yards on offense and more than 19:30 minutes of possession while checking the Kansas City Chiefs to just 23 yards, intercepting Patrick Mahomes twice, including a pick-six touchdown courtesy of birthday boy CB Cooper DeJean.
Despite that dominance, however, Philadelphia is a +7.5 underdog on the second-half line with the 2H total at 21.5 O/U.
Part of that second-half spread is respect for Kansas City’s ability to come from behind but also tempering Philadelphia’s dominance due to the way they built that lead, backed by two interceptions.
The Philadelphia defense has the Kansas City pass protection shell-shocked, simply outmuscling the offensive line with interior pressure and leaving Mahomes little time to read his progressions. The Chiefs have just one first down and are averaging a mere 1.2 yards per play.
My attention goes to the second-half total of 22.5 points, more specifically the Eagles' second-half team total of 7.5.
When the Eagles have the ball in the second half, they will be working the clock with the top rushing attack in the NFL. Philadelphia hands off on almost 56% of its snaps and that rate will spike as the Eagles play to protect the lead.
Kansas City’s defense has already been on the field for a long time but is doing a solid job containing the ground game, giving up only 2.7 yards per carry. How long they can keep that up remains to be seen.
I could see Kansas City making a push and balancing out the TOP a bit in the final 30 minutes, leaving the Eagles with fewer possessions (if KC can take care of the ball). That on top of Philly going all-in on the rushing game has me betting Philly's team total of Under 7.5.
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