They say defense wins championships, and that old adage will prove true once again when the San Francisco 49ers face the Kansas City Chiefs at Super Bowl 58 on Sunday. These are two of the top defensive teams in the NFL and while even casual fans will know the playmakers on offense, bettors won't be sleeping on the stars on the other side of the ball.
I dive into the NFL odds and find the best defensive NFL player props for the Super Bowl. That includes backing Chiefs end George Karlaftis to get a sack while also betting on Ambry Thomas to go Over his tackles despite expecting him to struggle in the Big Game.
Here are my best free sack and tackle Super Bowl picks for February 11.
Be sure to also check out our Super Bowl odds page to monitor line movement, along with our 49ers vs. Chiefs betting picks!
Best Super Bowl sack and tackle props
- George Karlaftis Over 0.25 sacks (+125 at bet365)
- Arik Armstead Under 0.25 sacks (-210 at DraftKings)
- Nick Bolton Under 5.5 solo tackles (-130 at DraftKings)
- Ambry Thomas Over 3.5 total tackles (-145 at DraftKings)
Picks made on 2/6
Read full analysis of our sack picks and our tackle props
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Best Super Bowl sack picks
49ers vs Chiefs: George Karlaftis
Kansas City Chiefs defensive end George Karlaftis' odds have garnered attention as he's enjoyed a breakout sophomore season. The 2022 first-round draft pick finished the regular season 12th in the league among edge defenders with 48 quarterback hurries while totaling 10.5 sacks.
He's racked up nine more hurries and 2.5 sacks during the playoffs and is poised to make an impact in the Super Bowl. Karlaftis lines up at left end which means he'll be matched up against San Francisco 49ers right tackle Colton McKivitz who is the weak link on San Francisco's offensive line.
McKivitz has a pass blocking grade of just 56.4, ranking 67th among offensive tackles who have at least 200 pass blocking snaps this season. With Karlaftis coming away with at least half a sack in 11 of his last 18 games, bet the Over 0.25 on his sacks for Sunday.
George Karlaftis Prop: Over 0.25 sacks (+125 at bet365)
49ers vs Chiefs: Arik Armstead
Defensive tackle Arik Armstead's odds are the next ones I'm looking at, as he's put together a strong season for San Francisco, but doesn't consistently generate pressure. Armstead doesn't have a sack in his last three games and he'll have a tough time taking down Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs finished the regular season having allowed the second-fewest sacks (27) in the NFL and Mahomes has been sacked just twice across three playoff games. When he does face pressure, it typically comes from the outside as only 37.7% of the pressure on Mahomes comes from the interior.
Although the status of Chiefs Pro Bowl left guard Joe Thuney is still up in the air, Armstead lines up at left defensive tackle so he'll face RG Trey Smith and center Creed Humphrey. Smith has surrendered just two sacks in each of the past two seasons while Humphrey has allowed a pressure on just 2.4% of his pass-blocking snaps.
Not only will Smith and Humphrey do an effective job of blocking Armstead and even when he does push the pocket, Mahomes' pocket presence, quick release, and scrambling ability should help him avoid a sack.
Arik Armstead Prop: Under 0.25 sacks (-210 at DraftKings)
Best Super Bowl sack picks
49ers vs Chiefs: Nick Bolton
Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton's odds are a hot topic after coming off a quiet performance against the Ravens where he had just four total tackles and three solo stops. While the Ravens ran the ball just 16 times in that contest, it's still notable that Bolton had significantly fewer solo tackles than fellow linebacker Drue Tranquill who ended up with eight.
With Tranquill playing well over the last few weeks and LB Willie Gay Jr. also healthy after missing the AFC championship game, Bolton will have competition when it comes to getting to the ball carrier first.
Keep in mind Bolton has logged more than five solo tackles just once in 11 total games this season. Even in double-digit tackle performances against Buffalo and Miami during the playoffs, he posted exactly five solo stops. Fade Bolton on his solo tackles at the Super Bowl.
Nick Bolton Prop: Under 5.5 solo tackles (-130 at DraftKings)
49ers vs Chiefs: Ambry Thomas
Ambry Thomas' odds will wrap up my sacks and tackles props piece. Thomas has logged 4+ tackles in five of his last seven games, but the main reason to hammer the Over 3.5 on his total tackles prop is that he could be picked on more than a kid wearing a bowtie to school.
With Charvarius Ward turning into a shutdown corner, teams have been throwing away from him and targeting Thomas on the other side. Thomas has a subpar pass coverage grade of 61.4 per PFF, and opposing QBs have a passer rating of 96.4 when throwing in his direction.
In addition, Thomas lines up at right corner which means he'll usually face wideout Rashee Rice who plays on the left side. Rice has become Mahomes favorite target during the second half of the season, which should result in plenty of opportunities for Thomas to make a tackle when Rice catches a pass against him.
Ambry Thomas Prop: Over 3.5 total tackles (-145 at DraftKings)
Not intended for use in MA.
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How are sack and tackle props calculated?
It's important to read the wording associated with the sack props at each specific sportsbook. Most books will list an Over/Under number which is set at 0.25 or 0.75, since players can be credited for 0.5 sacks for sharing a sack with a teammate. Other books will mark a sack as a "yes" or "no" proposition in which case half a sack will count as the player recording a sack.
Books often have props for solo tackles, assists, and tackles which are made up of both solo tackles and assists.
Best strategies to bet sack and tackle props
There are several factors to consider when handicapping sack totals. The most obvious involves the defensive player himself. How often does he get sacks both in terms of his recent history and also over a larger sample size, and does he consistently generate pressure? A player might have picked up sacks in three consecutive games but if he doesn't consistently beat his blocker, he's likely due for regression. On the other side of things, a player might be held off the sack sheet in four straight games, but if he's constantly pressuring opposing passers, it's only a matter of time before he gets a sack.
Who the defender is matching up against is also an important factor. How well does the projected starter opposite from him perform as a pass blocker and is that opposing player injured or playing out of position? In addition, is the offense able or willing to double-team the defender? Certain quarterbacks also hold on to the ball longer, have less pocket awareness, or don't have the mobility to evade pass rushers.
It's also important to consider how the rest of his team will affect a player's ability to get sacks. Perhaps his defensive coordinator is using him more in coverage, perhaps another defender is poaching his sacks or allowing him to get easier matchups. Improved play in the secondary can also lead to coverage sacks.
Game situation also matters since an offense that throws the ball a lot or is expected to play from behind, will also give a defense more opportunity to get sacks.
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