One of the best betting trends in the NFL across the last several years has been Unders in primetime games, which are hitting at a 59.9% clip since 2019. My favorite totals bets for Week 7 are counting on another low-scoring primetime game on Monday night with the Arizona Cardinals hosting the Los Angeles Chargers.
Read on to find out why my NFL picks for this week also include an Over in an NFC North rivalry clash and an Under in Vegas.
Week 7 totals bets
- Lions vs. Vikings o50.5 (-110 at bet365)
- Rams vs. Raiders u43.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
- Chargers vs. Cardinals u44 (-110 at Caesars)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Week 7 Over/Under picks
Over/Under bet #1: Lions vs Vikings o50.5 (-110)
The Detroit Lions looked a bit out of sync to begin the year and had problems finishing drives. Those wrinkles have been ironed out and they are now fourth in the league in EPA/play while coming off back-to-back games where they dropped 40+ points.
The Minnesota Vikings lead the league in defensive EPA but the Lions can handle their fierce pass rush. The Vikings have the highest pressure rate (32.6%) and blitz rate (41.1%) in the NFL but Detroit was able to move the ball against this blitz-happy Brian Flores defense last year.
The Lions have an experienced line that is third in the NFL in pass block win rate and they'll be able to pick up the blitz or use quick plays to get the ball out of Jared Goff's hand. Minnesota's stop unit doesn't have much speed on the outside and will have a tough time matching up against multiple weapons like Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams.
However, Detroit's defense is in trouble after losing Aidan Hutchinson to a season-ending injury last week. One thing the Lions' defense did at a high level was pressure opposing QBs, but an incredible 45 of their 73 total pressures came from Hutchinson. Without Hutchinson, Detroit's vulnerable corners will be torched by Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
The Vikings were limited to 23 points in their last game, but that was in London against a stingy Jets secondary. Before that, they scored more than 30 points against both the Packers and Texans in Weeks 3 and 4.
Their offense was also highly-efficient against the Giants and 49ers in the first two weeks of the season but played conservatively in the fourth quarter after building sizable leads. In what should be a close contest this week, expect these offenses to go blow for blow.
Over/Under bet #2: Rams vs Raiders u43.5 (-110)
The Los Angeles Rams have the league's worst pass defense but the Las Vegas Raiders don't have the personnel to exploit that weakness. Aidan O'Connell is under center at the moment, and he might be the worst starting QB in the league. It doesn't help that his wide receiver corps is devoid of talent after trading away Davante Adams.
The ground game is even worse with Zamir White running the ball behind an offensive line that ranks last in the league in run blocking grade, per PFF. Vegas' rush EPA (-0.416) is easily the worst in NFL history since that statistic started being tracked in 2018.
The Rams aerial attack has been neutered by injuries to star receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. There's a chance that Kupp returns from his ankle injury this week but he won't be 100%, and their line ranks last in the league in pass blocking grade.
Right tackle Rob Havenstein has struggled in pass protection, which is bad news with All-Pro end Maxx Crosby across from him on Sunday.
Over/Under bet #3: Chargers vs Cardinals u44.5 (-110)
The total for this game is surprisingly high when you consider the low-scoring games the Los Angeles Chargers have been in. With Jim Harbaugh at the helm, this team has morphed into a slow-paced, run-heavy offense that relies on its improved defense to win games.
The Bolts play at the second-slowest pace in the NFL, have the third-highest rushing play percentage (52.4%), and rank third in defensive EPA. With that formula, we haven't seen more than 39 total points scored in any of their games this year with an average of just 31.4 points in those contests.
The Arizona Cardinals are averaging only 187 passing yards per game, and that inability to attack downfield limits their offense. They've scored just 16 ppg over their last four games and their two best wide receivers, Marvin Harrison Jr (concussion) and Michael Wilson (ankle), are questionable for Monday. They also run the ball 47.5% of the time, which is surprisingly high for a team that has played with several negative game scripts.
The Cards have a poor defense but it's more likely that the Chargers will pound the ball against them and control the tempo as opposed to running up the score.
Not intended for use in MA.
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