Avalanche vs Flames Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Home is Where the Heat Is

The Colorado Avalanche head on the road and open up a four-game road trip in Alberta tonight vs. the Calgary Flames who sit eight points out of a playoff spot but have a better point percentage than the Avs since the All-Star break. 

With the Avalanche being a much better home team in elevation and the Flames being undervalued at +145 tonight on the moneyline, should bettors hop on the big home dogs vs. a Colorado team dealing with a lot of roster movement thanks to trades and a recent locker-room illness?

I break down the NHL odds and offer my free NHL picks for Flames vs. Avalanche for Tuesday, March 12.   

Avalanche vs Flames odds

Avalanche vs Flames predictions

The Colorado Avalanche have been unstoppable at home with the No.1 point percentage, offense, and goal differential. However, on the road, those numbers are very different. On home ice, the Avs are 26-6 SU with a plus-1.75 goal differential per game, which is in stark contrast to their road record of 14-19 and negative-0.39 goal differential. This team is undervalued at home and overvalued on the road.

Colorado also has some underlying issues in its 5-on-5 metrics with very high shooting and save percentages that could be calling for regression.

Some tangible things have been working against the Avs as well. Colorado added plenty of names to the roster and has welcomed back Valeri Nichushkin. There are some chemistry issues at forward and on defense and this team did not look great vs. the Wild on the weekend. They’ve also been off since Friday, which could create some rust.

The -180 road favorites are also dealing with a locker-room illness that might keep Arrturi Lehkonen out of the lineup. Ross Colton and Jack Johnson are also dealing with the bug while Zach Parise is questionable with a LBI and Logan O’Connor is out for the year.

I’m not on the Avs bandwagon tonight and getting the Calgary Flames at +130 or better is where I’m buying them. SIA has them at +145 on Tuesday morning after opening at +140. The Flames might be eight points out of a playoff spot but they have been a great spoiler team even with being sellers.

They rank third in expected goals at even strength since the ASB and fourth in expected goal differential. They're also coming off a bad 7-2 loss vs. Carolina, which was the last game of a three-game road trip. Tonight will be game No.1 of a four-game homestand and the roster will be feeling much better now that the trade deadline is over. 

I love backing the Avs at home, but this is a perfect team to fade on the road, especially with the underlying 5-on-5 metrics and the recent locker-room bug. Give me the Flames, who will also get Martin Pospisil back from suspension tonight. 

My best bet: Flames moneyline (+145 at SIA)

Avalanche vs Flames same-game parlay

Flames moneyline

Under 6.5

Nazem Kadri anytime goal

+950 at Sports Interaction

Without the Nazem Kadri goal, this is +330 but the AGS prop with the Under 6.5 is giving this a decent multiplier. The Avs have a 2.53 GAA at home compared to a 3.48 GAA on the road. Alex Georgiev has not been great on the road, either, with a 12-14 SU record and an .892 save percentage.

The Flames will give a much better effort tonight following a pair of lopsided losses on the road. The trade deadline is past and Calgary likely had the most trade rumors surrounding its roster. Colorado is also juggling pieces within its lineup thanks to a handful of trades and now four or five injury concerns. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Welcome to Sports Interaction 2.0

Looking to bet on some NHL action? Join Sports Interaction, the best in Canada for new bettors, with a brand-new platform featuring same-game parlays, increased prop markets, and more!

Sign Up Now 

Avalanche vs Flames moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Avs have taken a little money this morning but it’s tough to see the Flames get longer than +145. The total of 6.5 has also seen a 5-point move to the Under as it currently sits at -110 aside. 

Since the All-Star break, there hasn’t been much difference in results for either team while their 5-on-5 metrics are similar outside of Colorado’s high shooting and save percentages. Calgary has the better point percentage at 9-6 SU vs. Colorado’s 8-8. 

The Flames have dealt away some serious talent, especially on the blue line, but the Avs could be thin tonight thanks to injuries to O’Connor and Parise as well as illnesses to Lehkonen, Colton, and Johnson. 

The Flames’ recent 7-2 and 5-1 losses are giving some doubt for anyone wanting to jump on the +145 home dogs, but a lot of that had to do with the trade madness that is behind them. The Calgary locker room can breathe a little better now that the wheeling and dealing is over and it can bring up the appropriate AHL talent to the roster.

The Over is a tough buy for me with the Avs possibly missing some secondary scoring and not having nearly the same offense on the road as at home. The Flames have been a great Over team, this year at 36-25-3 O/U, but Colorado has hit just one Over across its last nine games. 

I think the better move is to the Under with the possible scratches tonight, Calgary getting their roster reset, and the Avs possibly having some better communication now with a game under its belt with its new acquisitions.

Avalanche vs Flames betting trend to know

The Calgary Flames have covered the 3P Puck Line in 46 of their last 80 games (+8.25 Units / 8% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Avalanche vs. Flames.

Avalanche vs Flames game info

Avalanche vs Flames latest injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic