The Montreal Canadiens head to the Wells Fargo Center to take on the Philadelphia Flyers in an Eastern Conference battle between a pair of low-scoring teams.
Even with the Flyers skidding along a 2-4-3 slump, they’re still a sizable home favorite in the NHL odds over the visiting Canadiens. Montreal has even won two of its past three, too, with the victories coming over the playoff-bound Dallas Stars and New York Rangers.
Can Montreal mount another upset, or will Philly right the ship?
Read on for our Canadiens vs. Flyers preview exploring the matchup and offering free NHL picks for the game on Wednesday, January 10.
Canadiens vs Flyers odds
Canadiens vs Flyers predictions
The pendulum has swung too far in the wrong direction for the Philadelphia Flyers during their active 2-4-3 slump. Philly has registered just 2.15 goals per 60 minutes with a 7.11 team shooting percentage and 48.6 Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5 during the skid. Those numbers all trail the respective 2.61, 8.21, and 50.7 marks the Flyers posted across their first 31 games of the campaign.
Obviously, those aren’t enormous drop offs, but the margin for error is small in the NHL. If two more of the 397 Philly shot attempts found the back of the net during the stretch, the two shootout losses could have been wins, for example. So, with a touch of statistical correction ahead and a favorable matchup against the Montreal Canadiens on tap, I like Philly taking care of business on Wednesday.
Still, the Canadiens have been sneaky at 5-on-5 with the fourth-highest team SV% (.925) and ninth-fewest goals against per 60 (2.31). Additionally, while confirmed starting goalie Cayden Primeau’s numbers don’t jump off the page at first glance, his struggles have come against the Carolina Hurricanes, Florida Panthers, Vegas Golden Knights, and New Jersey Devils. He has an .858 SV% in those four starts compared to a .939 mark against the Chicago Blackhawks, Buffalo Sabres, San Jose Sharks, and Detroit Red Wings in his other four. Philadelphia definitely resembles the latter more than the former.
With Montreal and Philadelphia respectively ranking 28th and 25th in goals per game and checking out 27th and 26th in my offensive ratings, I expect a low-scoring game. Both teams have Bottom-10 power-play percentages, too.
My best bet: Under 6 (+100 at SIA)
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Canadiens vs Flyers same-game parlay
Flyers moneyline
Under 6.5
Under 1.5 first period goals
This is an important game for Philadelphia. The Flyers are hanging tough in the competitive Metropolitan Division, but they’re tied with the New York Islanders with 46 points and there are three more teams with 44. As noted, there is room for positive statistical regression, and I’m expecting head coach John Tortorella and the more experienced Flyers to show up with urgency against the Canadiens.
The Under 6.5 goals aligns with my best bet, and the discussed offensive shortcomings of both teams include struggling during the first period. Montreal has the second-fewest goals in the opening frame, and Philadelphia has scored the 11th fewest.
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Canadiens vs Flyers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
This moneyline hasn’t moved since opening at Philadelphia -175 through SIA. While there have been some minor price adjustments at other sportsbooks, there aren’t outlier numbers to run to. The Flyers are a consensus favorite in the -172 to -180 range as of Wednesday morning.
I also think this is an accurate price.
The total remains at the opening number and price through SIA. It moved to Under 6.0 -105, but has since returned to 6.0 +100. FanDuel does have an off-market 6.5 total with the Under carrying a -130 vig. I was a little surprised to see the +100 odds on the Under 6.0 because of the underwhelming offensive statistics of both teams, and Philadelphia playing to the Under so frequently of late.
Canadiens vs Flyers betting trend to know
Philadelphia has played to the Under in five of its past seven games overall and four of its past five at Wells Fargo Center. Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs. Flyers.
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Canadiens vs Flyers game info
| Location: | Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Wednesday, January 10, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SN, NBCSP |
Canadiens vs Flyers latest injuries
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