Sunday’s NHL nightcap features a Central Division tilt with the Colorado Avalanche hosting the Arizona Coyotes. NHL odds have Colorado as a massive -240 favorite, while the total sits at 6.5.
These two teams just squared off at the end of December, with Arizona claiming a 5-4 upset victory in overtime. There have now been seven or more total goals scored in three of the past four meetings between these two clubs.
Will we see another high-scoring affair, or can the goaltending step up this time around? Find out in my free NHL picks for Coyotes vs. Avalanche on Sunday, February 18.
Coyotes vs Avalanche odds
Coyotes vs Avalanche predictions
There have been seven or more total goals scored in four of Colorado’s past five games, a trend that is likely to continue Sunday with goaltender Alexandar Georgiev slated to guard the cage for the Colorado Avalanche. Through 45 appearances in the crease this season, Georgiev possesses a modest .897 SV%.
He’s now allowed three or more goals in each of his past three starts, posting a 1-2 record with a .884 SV% and 3.73 GAA over that stretch. These struggles are likely to continue against the Arizona Coyotes, a team that Georgiev possesses a career .894 SV% against.
Now, to be fair, the defense in front of him bleeds a ton of high danger scoring chances. At 5-on-5, the Avalanche rank 21st in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).
With this combination of poor defensive play and goaltending, it should not be shocking that this team ranks 20th in goals allowed per game. On the other hand, the offense has been an absolute wagon as Colorado ranks in the Top 9 of the league in goals scored per game, shots on goal per game, power play percentage, and shooting percentage.
Regression is unlikely as it ranks sixth in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5. This offense should feast on a Coyotes team that ranks in the bottom half of the league in goals allowed per game, shots on goal allowed per game, penalty kill percentage, and penalty minutes taken per game.
Don’t expect positive regression anytime soon, as the Yotes also rank 24th in xGA/60 at 5-on-5. We are catching a particularly good price on the Over 6.5 at +100 via FanDuel, a line that is five cents longer than the rest of the market.
My best bet: Over 6.5 (+100 at FanDuel)
Coyotes vs Avalanche same-game parlay
Over 6.5
Avalanche moneyline
Backing up Arizona’s poor defensive lineup is goaltender Karel Vejmelka, who has had a tough time dealing with the product in front of him. Through 24 appearances between the pipes, Vejmelka is 6-13-2 with a .893 SV% and 3.48 GAA.
Entering this game in particularly poor form, he is 0-6 over his past eight games with a .876 SV% and 4.65 GAA. Vejmelka’s numbers barely improve against the Avs, posting a career .899 SV% against them.
While it is likely to be a high-scoring affair, there is not a single aspect of this game where the Yotes possess an advantage over the Avalanche.
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Coyotes vs Avalanche moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Avalanche opened as a -245 favorite and remain at that price as of Sunday morning. That is already such a long number, which is likely why the market has not pushed it any further, but I doubt that too much respected action is going to come in on Arizona to move it in the other direction.
That brings us to the total, which opened at 6.5 and also remains at that number. We have already seen the juice move from the Under to the Over at 6.5, and I think it will only keep moving in this direction given the goaltending matchup and the Avs’ combination of poor defense but great offense.
These are two of the best Over teams in the league, combining for an O/U record of 60-42.
Coyotes vs Avalanche betting trend to know
There have been seven or more total goals scored in four of Colorado’s past five games. Find more NHL betting trends for Coyotes vs. Avalanche.
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Coyotes vs Avalanche game info
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Sunday, February 18, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SCRIPPS, Altitude |
Coyotes vs Avalanche latest injuries
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