We’ve got 11 games on the NHL docket tonight, including a cross-conference clash between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Philadelphia Flyers.
The NHL odds like Toronto tonight, but the Flyers’ new captain, Sean Couturier, may have a bit of extra motivation in this matchup.
Find out why in my free NHL picks for this February 15 matchup.
Flyers vs Maple Leafs odds
Flyers vs Maple Leafs predictions
This is the first matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Philadelphia Flyers this season. Toronto typically doesn’t have trouble displacing this team with six straight wins against the Flyers, but Philly is a different animal this season with a 29-19-6 record.
The Flyers have also won four straight games since the NHL All-Star break, outscoring opponents 14-7 in those games with a +26 shot differential.
The Leafs are such a Jekyll-and-Hyde team because you never know what you’re going to get. This was highlighted in their last game, when they were missing John Tavares, Mitch Marner, and Morgan Rielly, yet put on a clinic in a 4-1 win over the St. Louis Blues.
Consistency has been the issue, however, so betting on them having a similar performance tonight is a tough thing to get behind.
Thus, I am focusing on a shot prop on the newly-minted Flyers captain, Sean Couturier.
Couturier was named captain on Wednesday afternoon, and I think that adds a little motivation for him to have a big game against the Leafs. His shot prop total is set at 2.5, and he’s gone Over that number in four of his last five games and is averaging 2.96 shots per game this season.
The Flyers have been a high-volume shooting team, averaging 33.4 shots per game, which ranks fourth in the NHL.
Meanwhile, the Leafs will again be without Rielly as he sits for the second of a five-game suspension. Toronto had a terrific showing in his first game out, only giving up 15 shots to St. Louis, but I wouldn’t expect that kind of defensive performance again as the team averages just over 30 shots against per game, which ranks in the middle of the pack league-wide.
Thus, Couturier will get ample opportunity to fire 3+ shots on goal throughout the evening.
My best bet: Sean Couturier Over 2.5 shots on goal (-110 at SIA)
Flyers vs Maple Leafs same-game parlay
Auston Matthews anytime goal
Under 7.5
Flyers TT Under 3.5
For leg one of my same-game parlay, I’m going to roll with an anytime goal from Auston Matthews. He leads the league with 41 goals and has scored nine times in his last 10 games. He’s scored in three of the last five meetings against Philly, for seven total points. I expect him to find some offense tonight after being held off the score sheet against the Blues on Tuesday.
Next up, I like the Under on the alternate total of 7.5 goals. These teams combine for 6.01 goals-against per game. Flyers head coach John Tortorella preaches defense and will make sure his team is prepared tonight to slow Toronto’s attack.
As for the Leafs, they looked great defensively Tuesday night, limiting St. Louis to one goal on 15 shots. They should look to play a similar game, and if they do, the Under is a good play.
For my final leg, let’s continue with the low-scoring theme tonight and take the Under on Philly’s alternate total of 3.5 goals. They’ve gone 6-2 to the Under over their last nine games, averaging 2.9 goals per game this season overall. Ilya Samsonov has been named the starter for tonight, he’s allowed four goals just once since the turn of the calendar.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Flyers vs Maple Leafs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Maple Leafs come into tonight as -175 favorites on home ice, with the Flyers the road dogs at +145. Toronto has won six straight meetings between these teams and surely has more firepower. Yet, I’d stay away from a moneyline play today. The Leafs are far too unpredictable right now to pay juice for them to win.
The total is set at 6.0 goals, shading towards the Over at -115, while the Under is at -105. This is a slight move toward the Under from the opening odds that had it at +105 late Wednesday night. Perhaps buy half a goal and take Under 6.5 at -130 odds to avoid a push. The Leafs have gone Under that number in five of their last seven, while the Flyers have done it in three of their last four.
Flyers vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The Philadelphia Flyers are 34-20 against the spread this season. Find more NHL betting trends for Flyers vs. Maple Leafs.
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Flyers vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Thursday, February 15, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN4, NBCSP |
Flyers vs Maple Leafs latest injuries
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