We went 1-2 SU here yesterday with a loss of 0.45 units as the Los Angeles Kings laid a dud in Chicago. That’s OK as today is a 10-game slate with lots of moving pieces to take advantage of.
These are my three favorite NHL player props for Tuesday, March 4.
NHL prop picks and best bets for March 4
Harley o0.5 assists (+135 at bet365)
Nichushkin o2.5 SOG + o0.5 points (+158 at DraftKings)
Toffoli + Eklund o0.5 points each (+220 at bet365)
Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets
Thomas Harley Over 0.5 assists (+135 at bet365)
With Miro Heiskanen still on the shelf, Thomas Harley has stepped up to play big minutes for the Dallas Stars and it’s paying off. The 23-year-old defender has five assists over his last three games and is leading an offense that has scored 4+ goals in 10 of its last 11 games. He is averaging 26+ minutes of ice time since the restart, which is over three minutes more than his average TOI this season.
The Dallas offense is loaded and rolling four strong lines while also boasting the No.1 power play at 53% since the break. The PP is coming off a 4-for-4 game vs. St. Louis on Sunday where Harley had two power-play helpers.
Additionally, the Stars will be facing a gutted New Jersey Devils team that lost Jack Hughes on Sunday in what is expected to be a long-term injury. Dallas was a +110 road dog in New Jersey on February 22 and are -180 home favorites tonight, which shows Hughes is worth around 30 points in the odds.
Dallas should continue its scoring ways and Harley will be on the ice for half of the game. It will also be a Casey DeSmith start in net so more total goals are projected.
Valeri Nichushkin Over 2.5 SOG + Over 0.5 points (+158 at DraftKings)
Books are still slow to move Valeri Nichushkin's props. He might be on the second line, but he was bumped up to PP1 in his last game (second from injury), which is certainly not priced in — mostly on his SOG market. Daily Faceoff has him on PP2 right now but he jumped up with the big boys in the first period on Friday and immediately contributed.
He is -125 for 3+ shots at DraftKings, but after watching the Pittsburgh Penguins on Sunday vs. the Leafs — and considering how well this Colorado offense has been scoring at home — adding Nichushkin for a point is not a stretch.
He’s collected five shots in each game he has been back and it’s safe to say he will be fully healthy tonight after last playing on Friday.
The Pens have to face a team getting new pieces and preparing for a Cup run two days after a sad 6-5 loss to the Leafs where goaltending was questionable. Goalie Joel Blomqvist was demoted after that game and Tristan Jarry has been recalled although Alex Nedeljkovic will likely start.
Nichushkin is the shooter on the second line and his SOG market could fall to -155/-160 after one more good game.
Tyler Toffoli + William Eklund Over 0.5 points each (+220 at bet365)
Both the San Jose Sharks and Buffalo Sabres are coming off games yesterday that went into extra time, and tonight’s meeting could be loose with a total of 6.5.
Macklin Celebrini spent some time on the second line last game as Alex Wennberg jumped up to the top center spot. Sadly, he has no markets available as anything at plus money for a point would be a buy. However, first-line wingers Tyler Toffoli and William Eklund are +220 to each get a point.
The Sabres will likely go with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen tonight but Buffalo is not a team keeping pucks out of the back of the net. UPL is a league-average goalie while the Sabres have some of the highest expected goals against numbers in hockey.
It’s not often we get Line 1 and PP1 correlated stacks at +200 or better but even if San Jose is held to two goals like last night, the top line can get it done. The pair has cashed this in six of its last eight games while the team is averaging just 2.25 goals per game.
NHL odds today
Here are the full NHL odds for all of today’s matchups.
Not intended for use in MA.
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