Runs have come at a premium between the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners. The pitching matchup Sunday could see more of the same, as the Astros seek a series sweep.
Astros vs Mariners prediction
My best bet
Under 7 (-102 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The wins in this series have been there for the taking for the Seattle Mariners, but their offense continues to let them down. Ranking a dismal 28th in runs scored, Seattle dropped a 4-2 decision Saturday night. In their last three matchups with the Houston Astros, they’ve totaled just those two runs.
The Mariners own an MLB-worst .218 team batting average while ranking Bottom 3 in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. They’re buoyed by an elite pitching staff that boasts the second-best ERA in the bigs at 3.45, and they’ll lean on 24-year-old Bryan Woo in the finale.
Woo is 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA, but he’s been inconsistent. In six starts this year, he’s allowed one or fewer runs, but in two of the last three, Woo has been hit pretty hard. He was chased in the third after getting clubbed for nine hits and four earned runs in an eventual 6-5 loss to the Angels last time out.
Houston will counter with Ronel Blanco, who's 9-4 on the season, sporting the sixth-best ERA in baseball at 2.56. He's been solid since the start of June, surrendering two runs or less in six of his eight starts.
He served up six innings of two-hit ball last time out, giving up just two earned runs and striking out five, but didn’t get much support, as the Astros fell to the Rangers 4-2.
While they’ve struggled to score against the stout Seattle starters, the Astros are baseball’s best-hitting team, ranking first in batting at a crisp .261 clip. They are also Top 10 in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS, and are tied for ninth in runs scored.
For now, this matchup has been about the low-scoring output, with the two teams going six straight games Under the total. Expect another tightly contested matchup on getaway day.
Astros vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7
Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 total bases
Jose Altuve Over 0.5 hits
After being shut out in two straight games against the Astros, Julio Rodriguez finally lit the scoreboard up with a 2-run jack in the sixth inning Saturday night.
He now has hits in six of his last eight games, and of those, he’s grabbed better than 1.5 total bases in five games. He’s had less than 10 at-bats in his career against Blanco, so we’ll take the hot hand against the dominant pitcher.
Meanwhile, Jose Altuve just continues to rake. The diminutive Altuve picked up a hit Saturday night, giving him at least a base hit in all but one of his 13 July games. He's not gone hitless in back-to-back games in the last 45. He’s yet to face Woo in his career, but the beat should continue to go on for him.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Mariners odds
Astros vs Mariners live odds
Astros vs Mariners opening odds
- Run line: Houston -1.5 (+160) | Seattle +1.5 (-180)
- Moneyline: Houston -110 | Seattle -110
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Astros vs Mariners spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Mariners are one of four AL teams with 30+ home wins this season.
- The Astros are the only current division leader with a losing road record.
- The Mariners have cashed the Under in four straight games.
- Houston has gone Under the total in its last four games.
Astros vs Mariners trend
The Astros and Mariners have combined for six or fewer runs in six straight games. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs Mariners.
Astros vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Sunday, 7-21-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Ronel Blanco (9-4, 2.56 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Bryan Woo (3-1, 2.45 ERA) |
Astros vs Mariners latest injuries
Astros vs Mariners weather
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