It was the same old story last night for the Toronto Blue Jays against the Milwaukee Brewers, as the bats couldn’t capitalize on another solid performance from a starting pitcher.
Blue Jays vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
Blue Jays -0.5 F5 RL (+105 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
The Toronto Blue Jays wasted another solid start from Jose Berrios in last night’s loss, totaling just four hits. Toronto's bats will get a chance to redeem themselves when they go up against Milwaukee Brewers’ prospect Carlos Rodriguez, who is making his MLB debut.
The 22-year-old RHP isn’t overpowering but uses a strong pitch mix to keep hitters off balance. That said, Rodriguez is pitching to a 5.60 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 12 appearances (11 starts) at Triple-A Nashville this season.
The Jays desperately need to take advantage of this matchup, and I think they will. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been doing his part to carry the offense, and Toronto has gotten solid contributions from guys like Daulton Varsho, Danny Jansen, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa.
That has resulted in solid numbers against righties — with the Jays ranking 16th in OPS and wRC+ — but if you really want to have confidence in the Jays tonight, look no further than Yusei Kikuchi.
The hard-throwing lefty seemingly busted out of his mini-slump by limiting the Baltimore Orioles to one run on four hits while striking out six over six innings of work.
Kikuchi has shown 2023 was no fluke. The 32-year-old is pitching to 3.43 expected ERA while striking out 23.7% of batters he’s faced. But the most impressive thing is the guy who massively struggled with walk rate in his career is in the 86th percentile this season.
Tonight, he stares across against a Brewers lineup that has had its struggles against southpaws. While the Brew Crew have great numbers against RHP, they rank 25th in batting average, 23rd in OPS, and 22nd in wRC+ with the eighth-highest K-rate vs. lefties.
I’m betting Kikuchi puts the Jays on his back early while the offense does just enough to give him the lead through five frames.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Yusei Kikuchi Over 6.5 strikeouts (+120 at PROLINE+)
Let’s stick with Kikuchi for our star player prop. The lefty’s K-rate has been above league average this season, but it seems to be a little all-or-nothing with him. Kikuchi has struck out six or more batters in seven of his starts but has had four or fewer in the other six.
Luckily, the Brewers are a little swing-happy when facing lefties. They strike out 23.7% of the time against them and have the highest swing rate vs. pitches in the zone. Sometimes that works out for them, but with the way Kikuchi has been peppering the zone, it could mean more whiffs from the Brew Crew.
Additionally, with Milwaukee's issues when facing lefties, I like Kikuchi’s chances of pitching deeper into this ball game. He’s completed six innings in eight of his last 11 starts.
Kikuchi’s strikeout prop is a little lofty at 6.5, but he’s eclipsed this number five times this season, and the plus money makes this a fun bet to back in a good matchup.
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Blue Jays vs Brewers odds
Blue Jays vs Brewers live odds
Blue Jays vs Brewers opening odds
- Run line: Toronto -1.5 +140 | Milwaukee +1.5 -165
- Moneyline: Toronto -115 | Milwaukee -105
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Blue Jays vs Brewers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this interleague matchup as slight -115 road favorites and have seen the early action with the line moving to the -120 range.
- The Jays snapped a skid of seven straight losses in games started by Kikuchi, despite his good numbers.
- The total hit the board at an even 8.0 but has been bet up to 8.5 as of early Tuesday afternoon.
- Unders have cooled off in Kikuchi starts. The Over has hit in his last three starts after starting the season 2-8 O/U. The same principle applies to Kikuchi as it does to Jose Berrios. Solid pitching with inconsistent pitching has resulted in Unders. I'll have a play on the Under 8.5 as well.
Blue Jays vs Brewers trend
The Blue Jays have hit the game total Under in 35 of their last 61 games for +7.15 Units and an 11% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Brewers
Blue Jays vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Tuesday, 6-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet1, Bally Sports Wisconsin |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Yusei Kikuchi (3-5, 3.48 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Carlos Rodriguez (MLB debut) |
Blue Jays vs Brewers latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Brewers weather
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