The Atlanta Braves ride a three-game losing streak into Camden Yards for Game 1 of a three-game series against the Baltimore Orioles.
Despite Atlanta’s recent struggles, my Braves vs. Orioles predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, June 11 believe the Braves’ best bat in Marcell Ozuna will be on point in this spot.
Braves vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 total bases (-105 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Atlanta Braves have been going through it this season in their chase to return to the World Series. The injury bug has struck one of the most talented rosters in baseball, and as a result, Atlanta has stumbled throughout the season.
While dropping three in a row to the 30-35 Washington Nationals might be alarming, this is still a roster so talented that it’s a road favorite against one of the best teams in the AL in the Baltimore Orioles. Atlanta is still among the five teams with the shortest World Series odds, but to live up to that billing, they’ll have to show up at Camden Yards.
The one player on Atlanta who’s remained healthy and at an All-Star level all season has been Marcell Ozuna. He leads the team in hits (73), home runs (18), and every slash line category (.312/.385/.603).
Ozuna may not be a true threat in the NL MVP odds with Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Bryce Harper in the league, but he’s certainly in the Top 5 conversation. He should be able to strike some fear into the heart of Orioles starter Albert Suarez.
Suarez leans heavily on his four-seamer with it accounting for more than half his pitches this season (54.8%). That makes Ozuna an extremely difficult matchup for him with the Braves All-Star hammering four-seamers this season.
Ozuna is batting .361 with a .583 SLG against them and is hitting Suarez’s second most frequent pitch even harder. The Orioles pitcher uses his cutter 22% of the time, a pitch Ozuna has a .786 SLG against.
Overall, Ozuna is killing fastballs with 19 extra-base hits, a .358 average, and a .657 xSLG. The only other pitch Suarez uses more than 6% of the time is his changeup (17.3%) and Ozuna’s putting up a .300 xBA and .587 xSLG against those this season.
Braves vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 total bases
Max Fried Over 17.5 outs
Gunnar Henderson Over 0.5 hits
Ozuna isn’t the only Brave that will need to ball out against Baltimore. Starting pitcher Max Fried will have plenty of pressure on him against this Orioles lineup, but he’s been money for much of the year.
Fried has a 2.93 ERA across 73 2/3 innings and has gone six or more innings in seven of his last eight starts. Even if Fried pitches a great game, AL MVP candidate Gunnar Henderson is in good position to come away with at least a hit.
Henderson is coming off a three-hit game and has recorded at least one in five straight games and in 12 of his last 13. He’s batting .268 or better against three of Fried’s Top 4 pitches.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Orioles odds
Braves vs Orioles live odds
Braves vs Orioles opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 | Baltimore +1.5
- Moneyline: Atlanta -130 | Baltimore +115
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Braves vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis
- Even with three straight losses against the Nationals, the Braves opened between a -130 to -150 moneyline favorite and remain in that range.
- Atlanta sits second in the NL East this season at 35-28 while the Orioles are 43-22, putting them in the No. 2 spot in the AL East.
- The Over/Under opened as high as 8.5 but has since dipped down to 7.5 at most books. The Under can be had at even or plus-money at a few books.
- The Braves have been one of the worst Over teams in the MLB this season at 24-37-2, but the Orioles are among the best at 34-24-7.
DraftKings Early Win Payout: Up 2 = Win!
Make your moneyline bets less of a sweat with DraftKings' EWP, where every day you can get one MLB moneyline bet paid out immediately — as soon as your team goes up by 2+ runs
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Braves vs Orioles trend
The Braves have hit the Under in 35 of their last 49 games (+20.50 Units / 38% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Orioles
Braves vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Tuesday, 6-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports South, MASN |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Max Fried (6-2, 2.93 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Albert Suarez (2-0, 1.83 ERA) |
Braves vs Orioles latest injuries
Braves vs Orioles weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
