Braves vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Yankees moneyline (-112 at FanDuel)
My analysis
If you look at this matchup between Chris Sale and Carlos Rodon on the surface, you might not see Rodon on equal footing in this potential pitcher’s duel. It’s been Sale who’s excelled on contact while remaining incredibly strong in the strikeout department along the way, while the New York Yankees’ lefty has been unquestionably worse in those two areas.
Of late, though, the delta between these two is closing and may even be skewing towards Rodon. He has generated more chases out of the zone and more swings and misses over the last month and a half, and the strikeouts are slowly climbing as a result. He may pitch to a wealth of fly balls, something that’s generally dangerous against Atlanta, but this team is a shell of itself at the plate right now.
The Atlanta Braves rank 16th in wRC+ over the last two weeks with dreadful performances in the strikeout and walk categories, which should play into Rodon’s hands here given his improvements in hunting for punchouts. New York, meanwhile, remains a very disciplined team with a high 9.6% walk rate and low 21.7% strikeout rate during this time. This lineup has been one of the best at making contact all season long.
Sale’s xSLG has jumped over .400 this month and he’s allowed barrels at a high clip — over 10% — with two homers and a plethora of loud contact coming back into play. It’s decidedly been his worst month of the year after he sizzled in May against some poor offenses, and against the best team he’s faced in probably two months, I think he’ll look a bit worse than his numbers would lead on.
Conversely, Rodon should look much better than his results (and expected results) given the recent trends here with his arsenal and the Braves’ offense as a whole.
Braves vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees moneyline
DJ LeMahieu 1+ hit
Anthony Volpe 1+ run
Carlos Rodon 6+ strikeouts
I don’t feel there’s inherent value in Rodon’s strikeout prop, even with what we’ve covered above with his improvements in generating swinging strikes and the Braves’ lack of discipline, and I’d prefer to pay up for six punchouts. That leaves us with some work to do to get the odds up, so I’ll back a pair of Yankees to do some work against Sale.
The first is DJ LeMahieu, who hasn’t begun his season in the best form after returning from injury weeks ago, but he did hit lefties much better last year and is a whopping 7-for-10 against Sale in his career.
Anthony Volpe has also done strong work against southpaws with a .388 on-base percentage, and I like the man who’s scored a whopping 54 times for the Yankees this year to score again. He’s done so in six of his last nine games and has totaled 25 runs in his last 27 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Yankees odds
Braves vs Yankees live odds
Braves vs Yankees opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 | New York +1.5
- Moneyline: Atlanta -108 | New York -100
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Braves vs Yankees spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Yankees opened as slight underdogs here, around +105, before they were pushed out to small favorites at around -115 on average.
- The total remains at the opening number of 8, though it briefly touched 8.5 on Friday and has been trending towards the Over this afternoon.
- DraftKings is reporting that the Yankees account for 70% of the bets and 79% of the money wagered on the moneyline.
- As you might expect, 67% of the tickets are on the Over here with 55% of the handle.
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Braves vs Yankees trend
The Braves have only hit the F5 moneyline in eight of their last 25 away games (-10.60 Units / -29% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Yankees
Braves vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Friday, 6-21-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Chris Sale (9-2, 2.98 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Carlos Rodon (9-3, 3.28 ERA) |
Braves vs Yankees latest injuries
Braves vs Yankees weather
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