The Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves are both struggling as they head into the start of their three-game series tonight, but both will see this as a good opportunity to get back on track.
Which of these teams will get back in the win column when they clash at Truist Park? Keep reading our MLB betting picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Braves to find out.
Cubs vs Braves odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
After opening as a +153 underdog in this meeting with the Braves, the best price you can get on the Cubs by the time of this writing is +150. And Chicago is actually down to +143 on a couple of sportsbooks, so that value is slimming.
As for the total, the number opened at 8 and hasn’t shown any signs of going up. The Under actually has a decent amount of juice on it, so it could end up moving to 7.5 before the first pitch.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Cubs vs Braves predictions
Picks made on 4/26/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Cubs vs Braves game info
• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Tuesday, April 26, 2022
• First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
• TV: Marquee Sports Network, Bally Sports Network
Cubs vs Braves betting preview
Starting pitchers
Marcus Stroman (0-2, 8.78 ERA): Stroman’s adjustment to life in Chicago has been a bit rough thus far, as he has given up 12 earned runs over 8 1-3 innings of work over his last two starts. Those performances were especially disappointing after he allowed just one earned run in five innings in hisCubs debut. Now, the righty will look to get back on track in this road start against the Braves.
Max Fried (1-2, 3.50 ERA): Fried is coming off of his best start of the season, as he was absolutely dominant against the Los Angeles Dodgers on April 19. The lefty threw seven innings of shutout ball and struck out eight hitters. He’ll look to build on that performance with another good start on Tuesday when he takes on a lineup that looks very beatable on paper.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Cubs: Clint Frazier OF (Out), Alec Mills P (Out), Wade Miley P (Out), Andrelton Simmons SS (Out), Adbert Alzolay P (Out).
Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. OF (Out), Eddie Rosario OF (Out), Kirby Yates RP (Out), Luke Jackson RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Cubs are 5-0 in their last five road games against left-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Braves
Cubs vs Braves picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
On paper, the Braves seemingly have a massive edge over the Cubs. They have the better lineup and a better pitcher on the mound. Chicago has, however, been pretty good against lefties to open the year and face Max Fried, who, while excellent, is traditionally a pitch-to-contact hurler.
The Cubs are tied for sixth in the league in runs scored and seventh in slugging percentage against left-handed pitching. They’re also tied for fourth in MLB in weighted runs created against lefties, and it’s just hard to ignore all of those things when you’re looking at a team that’s plus-money in an otherwise winnable game.
Scorching-hot rookie Seiya Suzuki, who is batting .354 with four homers — two of which have come against lefties — and 13 RBIs this season, is one player to keep an eye on. The 27-year-old already has one of the more intimidating plate presences in baseball, and he has the type of swing to eventually start to rake against left-handed pitching.
Here's how some of Chicago's other key hitters have fared against lefties in 2022: Nico Hoerner is 7-for-19 (.368). Ian Happ is 6-for-15 (.400). Jonathan Villar is 4-for-14 (.308). Nick Madrigal is 6-for-20 (.300).
Catcher Willson Contreras has looked poor against southpaw hurlers, going 1-for-14 with four strikeouts, but his lone hit was a home run. For his career, he's fared much better with a career batting average of .272 off left-handed pitchers.
The Cubs are 5-0 in their last five road games against left-handed starters. On top of that, Marcus Stroman is a lot better than his early-season numbers indicate. The righty has had an ERA under 4.00 in four of the last five seasons. And while the 8.78 ERA is alarming, his .333 BABIB, 4.36 expected ERA, and 3.29 xFIP suggest he's been a tad unlucky through three starts.
He's also walking batters more frequently than he's accustomed to with 4.05 BB/9 compared to his career mark of 2.54. Stroman's also been bitten by the home run ball, allowing three dingers on an unsustainable 30% HR/FB ratio.
It’s only a matter of time before his numbers normalize and he turns in some good outings as a member of the Cubs.
Prediction: Cubs moneyline (+150 at Caesars)
Over/Under analysis
While the Cubs have quite a few hitters who can be dangerous against left-handed pitching, the Braves still have one of the better starters in the league on the mound in Fried.
With that said, Chicago’s bats can do enough to help bettors by winning without pushing the final Over its set total. Fried isn’t the type of starter to get lit up, so the Cubs will have to find a way to hold onto a win with three or four runs tops. Five if they're lucky.
Stroman, who is off to a slow start this season, also happens to enjoy pitching in Truist Park. In just three outings in Atlanta’s ballpark, the righty is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in 18 innings of work. Small sample, sure, but he's also much better than his initial numbers have indicated.
Now, he gets to face a Braves offense that is just 14th in the league in runs scored despite ranking in the Top 10 in that category in 2021. The Under is 3-1 in Chicago’s last four games, with the team’s 21-0 annihilation of the Pittsburgh Pirates being the outlier.
Prediction: Under 8 (-105 at BetMGM)
Best bet
In addition to being on the Cubs' bandwagon as an underdog today, we’re also rolling with some great odds on Suzuki to finish this game with an RBI. The rookie has done some of his best work in road games this year, batting .412 with three homers, two doubles, and five RBI away from Wrigley Field.
That’s obviously a small sample size, but it’s a great sign for Chicago that he isn’t intimidated when playing in different environments.
Suzuki signed the biggest deal in MLB history for a Japanese position player during the offseason, and his ability to come through at the plate is a big reason for that. We have already seen the 27-year-old looking like an All-Star to kickstart his Cubs tenure, and this matchup with Fried isn’t one he will back down from.
Somebody on the Cubs is going to need to come through at the plate for them to come away with this upset, and there’s no better option than Suzuki.
Pick: Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 RBI (+230 at Unibet)
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