The final game of this intracity series gets underway on Saturday evening with the Chicago White Sox hosting the Chicago Cubs at Guaranteed Rate Field. MLB odds have the Cubs as a massive -245 favorite, while the total sits at 8.5.
My Cubs vs. White Sox predictions feel that the favorite has an insurmountable advantage in the starting pitching battle. Read on for my MLB picks for Saturday, August 10.
Cubs vs White Sox prediction
My best bet
Cubs -1.5 (-135 at bet365)
My analysis
The Chicago Cubs hand the ball to left-hander Justin Steele, who is once again putting together a terrific campaign. The southpaw boasts a 3.33 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through 18 starts this season.
His underlying metrics are even stronger, considering that Steele sports a 2.97 xERA and ranks in the 81st percentile or higher in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. Following Steele is a trustworthy bullpen that ranks in the Top 10 of the league in both ERA and FIP.
The same cannot be said of the Chicago White Sox bullpen, which ranks in the Bottom 3 in ERA, FIP, and xFIP. Not only do the White Sox possess the inferior relief staff, but they are also at a disadvantage in the starting pitching department as right-hander Chris Flexen is slated to take the mound.
Steele outranks Flexen in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. Building upon the lopsidedness of this matchup, the Cubs also own the clear hitting advantage.
They pace the White Sox in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs, and stolen bases. While -245 is a bit long for my liking on the moneyline, the Cubs should have no issue producing a multi-run victory in this matchup.
Cubs vs White Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Cubs -1.5
Justin Steele Over 5.5 strikeouts
Dansby Swanson Over 0.5 hits
If we are backing the Cubs to win, then a strong performance from Steele is a correlated outcome.
We can confidently back him in the prop market, considering that he ranks in the top half of the league in both chase rate and strikeout rate. He has recorded at least six strikeouts in six of his past nine starts.
We will also need some hitting, which is where Dansby Swanson comes into play.
Swanson boasts a dominating .615 BA through 13 career plate appearances against Flexen and has recorded at least one hit in 15 of his past 17 games overall.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs White Sox odds
Cubs vs White Sox live odds
Cubs vs White Sox opening odds
- Run line: Chicago (NL) -1.5 (-130) | Chicago (AL) +1.5 (+110)
- Moneyline: Chicago (NL) -230 | Chicago (AL) +190
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Cubs vs White Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Cubs opened as a -230 favorite and were quickly bet up to -240.
- This line movement makes sense, considering that the White Sox are the most fade-worthy team in baseball.
- The total opened at 8.5 and remains at that price as of Saturday morning.
- Considering both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in virtually every hitting statistic, I believe that this number will either hold or move down to 8.
Cubs vs White Sox trend
The White Sox have lost by two or more runs in each of Flexen’s past six starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. White Sox.
Cubs vs White Sox game info
| Location: | Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-10-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Justin Steele (2-5, 3.38 ERA) |
| White Sox starting pitcher: | Chris Flexen (2-10, 5.13 ERA) |
Cubs vs White Sox latest injuries
Cubs vs White Sox weather
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