The Arizona Diamondbacks look to win their series against the Chicago Cubs on Saturday night when the teams meet at Wrigley Field. Arizona turns to Zac Gallen, who hopes to turn around a brutal month of July. Kyle Hendricks will take the mound for the Cubs and looks to build on a terrific start last time out.
We help you find the best betting angle in our MLB picks and Diamondbacks vs. Cubs predictions for Saturday, July 20.
Diamondbacks vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Michael Busch Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+100 at DraftKings)
My analysis
To say Zac Gallen has dominated this Chicago Cubs roster is an understatement. He’s faced the current Chicago roster 55 times in his career and has allowed just nine hits while walking five batters and striking out 15 others.
And it’s not just the .180 average these hitters have against Gallen. It’s the fact their limited success has yielded nothing more than singles. That’s right, not one of those nine hits resulted in so much as a double.
However, Michael Busch is the one Cubs hitter who can say he’s somewhat done well. While it’s a minimal sample size, he’s come away with a walk and a hit in three at-bats against the Arizona Diamondbacks hurler.
Gallen’s recent performances haven’t been up to his standard, and Busch has been in a strong run over the past few weeks. That’s why I like him to rack up 2+ hits + runs + RBI on Saturday night.
Busch notched a double in the 5-2 loss on Friday night and later came around to score. It marked the ninth time in his last 13 games that he’s registered multiple hits + runs + RBI, and his day/night splits back him to have another strong performance. He’s hitting .319 at night this season against just .208 during the daytime.
So far in July, he’s posted a .321 average while slugging .554 and has driven six runs while scoring 12. He’s also got the lefty advantage on Saturday, as he’s facing the right-handed Gallen and a bullpen with just one LHP.
Gallen’s metrics this season have been below average, and he’s regressed heavily toward them in July. He’s been hit extremely hard in his three starts this month, allowing 13 earned in 13 IP while striking out just nine hitters. He’s also been poor on the road, with an ERA 1.30 runs higher than his home mark.
While he's pitched better vs. LHB than RHB, he’s given up more HR in fewer at-bats and is giving up a higher slugging percentage. Look for Busch to get on base while either scoring or driving in a run in the process.
Diamondbacks vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Michael Busch Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Ian Happ 1+ hits
First-five Over 4.5
Ian Happ has been smacking the ball since the calendar flipped to July. He’s posted a .306/.364/.653 split this month, with 15 hits in 49 ABs. He’s posted a .307 average at Wrigley Field as well, more than 120 points higher than his away average. While he’s recorded just one hit in 11 ABs against Gallen, Happ has a hit in four of his last six games at home.
Hendricks has pitched better at home and at night this season, but that’s not saying much given his overall numbers. He’s coming off his best start of the season against the Cardinals, but he’s surrendered multiple earned runs in three of his last four starts. That’s not to mention this Arizona lineup has success against him, with Alek Thomas and Christian Walker both hitting north of .300 in their careers.
Gallen’s last start saw him rocked by the Blue Jays in a game that was 7-7 after five innings. He’s allowed 3+ runs in his last three starts, two of which saw him fail to get out of the fifth inning. Neither starter can be trusted at the moment and I like there to be runs in the first five innings after Arizona posted five on Friday night before the end of the fifth.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Diamondbacks vs Cubs odds
Diamondbacks vs Cubs live odds
Diamondbacks vs Cubs opening odds
- Run line: Arizona -1.5 (+120) | Chicago +1.5 (-140)
- Moneyline: Arizona -140 | Chicago +120
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Diamondbacks vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Diamondbacks are favored at -134 or more on the moneyline, with money coming in on them since the lines opened. The Cubs can be had for as much as +120. The run line of Arizona -1.5 sees the Cubs favored at -140.
- The Diamondbacks have won seven of the last 10 meetings, and are 7-3 overall in their last 10, having won five of their last six. The Cubs have lost three of four after a five-game winning streak.
- At an even 8 runs, the Over is slightly favored on the total at -115. Early money has been coming in, pushing the total up to 8.5 in some places.
- The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings. The Over is 7-2-1 in Arizona’s last 10, while the Cubs have seen the Over hit in three of their last four.
Diamondbacks vs Cubs trend
The Chicago Cubs have stayed Under their first-five team total in 21 of their last 31 games at home (+10.85 units / 31% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Cubs
Diamondbacks vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Stadium, City, State/Province |
| Date: | Saturday, 7-20-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Zac Gallen (6-5, 3.87 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Kyle Hendricks (2-7, 6.78 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Cubs latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Cubs weather
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