If I had told you prior to the season the Cleveland Guardians would take on the Houston Astros today and one team would be 20-10 and the other would have the opposite 10-20 record, you would get the answer wrong 10 out of 10 times.
The team that has played in seven consecutive American League Championship Series is falling back down to Earth like, well, an asteroid. Despite all of Houston’s problems, the MLB odds have them favored to win this series in tonight’s rubber match. I break it all down in my Guardians vs. Astros predictions and MLB picks for Thursday, May 2.
Guardians vs Astros prediction
My best bet
Over 9 (+100 at bet365)
My analysis
Yes, the Houston Astros certainly have a problem, and that is pitching.
We saw that in the opener of this series in which the Astros had to outslug the Cleveland Guardians, 10-9. The Astros got a reprieve from the putrid pitching in Game 2 thanks to future Hall-of-Famer Justin Verlander but it wasn’t enough, as he was outdueled by Cleveland starter Triston McKenzie.
With the Guardians' Logan Allen toeing the rubber against the Astros' Spencer Arrighetti in the finale, I’m betting this matchup is closer to resembling Game 1 than Game 2.
The Astros are looking to get good innings anywhere they can. That means they’ve called up top prospect Arrighetti to give a boost to the rotation. However, it hasn’t worked out that way yet.
Arrighetti has made three starts, surrendering 13 earned runs on 18 hits over 10 2/3 innings. His expected ERA of 4.36 says he’s been better than his 10.97 ERA, but it’s still not great. He is also ranks in the 30th percentile in opponent expected batting average and has battled his command, ranking in the 18th percentile in walk rate.
The rookie right-hander will face off against one of the bigger surprises in baseball — the Guardians lineup. Cleveland ranks 10th in batting average, OPS, and wRC+ this season.
Pitching deep into games has also been an issue for Arrighetti. None of his starts have lasted longer than four innings. That means handing the ball to an Astros bullpen that ranks 24th in ERA and 17th in expected FIP early tonight.
Meanwhile, Allen has been mediocre at best this season. The lefty ranks in the 42nd percentile or worse in xERA, xBA, and strikeout rate. For all of Houston’s problems, hitting isn’t one of them, particularly against southpaws. The Astros rank eighth in batting average and OPS and sixth in wRC+ vs. lefties this season.
This all leads me to believe we will see a result similar to the 10-9 final in the opener, which means I’m betting the Over tonight.
Guardians vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 9.5
Guardians moneyline
Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 total bases
The biggest edge in this series is in the bullpens. I noted that has been a weakness for the Astros. That’s not the case for the Guardians.
Cleveland is the proud owner of arguably the best bullpen in baseball. The Guardians relievers lead the majors in ERA and xFIP while ranking third in strikeouts per nine innings.
If this game does go Over, we will need scoring from both teams, and it looks like the Astros’ Kyle Tucker is up to the task. I broke this down fully in my MLB player prop picks earlier today, but the All-Star outfielder is crushing the baseball right now. Tucker has hits in 11 of his last 12 games, good for a .364 average and a 1.176 OPS. He's gone Over 1.5 total bases nine times over that stretch.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Guardians vs Astros odds
Guardians vs Astros live odds
Guardians vs Astros opening odds
- Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-180) | Houston -1.5 (+150)
- Moneyline: Cleveland +115 | Houston -135
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5
Guardians vs Astros spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Astros opened this matchup as -135 home favorites and have come down just slightly with the line currently sitting at Houston -130.
- The Astros have won just five games at home all season while the Guardians have been a very profitable 12-6 on the road.
- The total hit the board at 9.5 and the early money has come in on the Under, dropping the number to 9 as of Thursday afternoon.
- The total of 9 matches that of Game 1 on Tuesday. That game finished 10-9.
Guardians vs Astros trend
The Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games for +4.72 Units and a 12% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Astros
Guardians vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, 5-2-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Ohio, Space City Network |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Logan Allen (3-1, 5.46 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Spencer Arrighetti (0-3, 10.97 ERA) |
Guardians vs Astros latest injuries
Guardians vs Astros weather
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