Refreshed after the All-Star break, the high-flying Cleveland Guardians will look to continue their home-field dominance as they take on the San Diego Padres tonight.
In contrast to the hosts’ AL-leading record, San Diego is in a Wild Card scrap after slipping to .500 — and my MLB picks and Padres vs. Guardians predictions point to another tough night for the visitors in this July 20 showdown.
Padres vs Guardians prediction
My best bet
Guardians moneyline (-116 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Progressive Field has been a fortress for the Cleveland Guardians this season, with Jose Ramirez & Co. posting a 31-11 mark and winning their last three outings at home — and I’m sticking with that trend, even against a San Diego Padres team that leads the majors in hits.
Cleveland took care of business last night, led by Tanner Bibee’s strong start, and finished off with some fireworks against the San Diego bullpen. That was the Guardians’ fifth win in the past seven meetings.
The visitors have bigger questions to answer. It’s fair to wonder where the Padres’ electric offense has disappeared to over the last few weeks. They haven’t scored more than four runs in any of their past seven contests and were held to one run or fewer in four of those games.
There are too many proven hitters in this San Diego lineup for an extended slump, but I prefer to trust a Guardians team that keeps finding ways to win. Cleveland ranks ninth in the majors in runs scored and they’re 44-6 this season when they score 5+ runs.
While the Padres are sending ace Dylan Cease to the mound here with his 1.08 WHIP, he’s struggled on the road lately, allowing 3+ runs in five straight starts away from Petco Park. He was chased in the fourth inning against the Rangers in his last road outing after giving up six runs on eight hits.
In the opposite dugout, Gavin Williams may be short on Big League experience but he’s pitched well for Cleveland in his last two appearances, and I see him doing enough here before the Guardians’ rock-solid bullpen takes over.
Padres vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Guardians moneyline
Over 7.5
Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 total bases
I’m looking beyond these teams’ sluggish offensive numbers just before the All-Star break and counting on their overall 2024 numbers to power a high-scoring game tonight.
The Guardians and Padres both rank in the top half of the league in runs, OPS, and OBP. The Over is 53-45 for San Diego this year and it’s hard to envision a repeat of the visitors’ four-hit effort while being shut out yesterday.
This also feels like a good spot for a Jose Ramirez prop. His batting average has dipped in July, but he had a multi-hit game last night and leads Cleveland with 44 extra-base hits this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Guardians odds
Padres vs Guardians live odds
Padres vs Guardians opening odds
- Run line: San Diego -1.5 (+150) | Cleveland +1.5 (-180)
- Moneyline: San Diego -110 | Cleveland -110
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Padres vs Guardians spread and Over/Under analysis
- The moneyline opened as a true coin flip, but the odds shortened for Cleveland after last night’s comprehensive victory as the hosts piled up 10 hits.
- It’s not just the Guardians’ home form that makes them a worthy favorite here — keep in mind too that their bullpen has an MLB-best 2.60 ERA and they’ve covered the run line 21 of their past 28 games at Progressive Field.
- Both of these teams average more than 4.0 runs per game, which makes the 7.5 O/U a little surprising.
- Despite a rocky stretch at the plate, the Padres have cashed in the Over in 15 of their past 22 contests, though Fernando Tatis Jr.’s ongoing absence hurts this San Diego offense.
Padres vs Guardians trend
The Guardians have gone Over their team total in 26 of their last 37 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Guardians
Padres vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, 7-20-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Great Lakes, Padres TV |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Dylan Cease (8-8, 3.99 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Gavin Williams (0-1, 3.77 ERA) |
Padres vs Guardians latest injuries
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