Pirates vs Brewers Prediction, Picks, & Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

The Pittsburgh Pirates are coming off a rout of the AL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers, and now tonight look for their first three-game winning streak in more than three months.

Betting on that may be too bold for my Pirates vs. Brewers prediction's tastes, but some faith in Pittsburgh does lead our MLB picks before the first pitch at 8:10 ET on Wednesday, July 10.

Pirates vs Brewers prediction

My best bet
Pirates +1.5 (-145 at Caesars)

My analysis
Milwaukee Brewers rookie pitcher Tobias Myers has impressed through 13 appearances, including 12 starts. His 3.52 ERA may not leap off the stat line, but a WHIP of 1.19 has kept Milwaukee in just about every game he's pitched. Only twice has Milwaukee lost by more than one run when Myers contributed, a 15-5 loss to the Yankees in his second start, and two weeks ago against the Cubs.

That stumble against Chicago stands out, though, throwing six innings and giving up three earned runs in a 5-3 loss. In his next start, Myers gave up four earned runs across six innings. Worse yet, his WHIP in those two games spiked to 1.5.

This may not be a long-term lull from Myers. But it's enough of one to worry about right now.

It's particularly worrisome given the Pittsburgh Pirates have produced in bunches of late. The Pirates have scored four or more runs in six of their last nine games. In the other three, they managed just two runs apiece.

Another four-run showing would position Pittsburgh to cover this run line. In fact, it would set up the Pirates for a win, but the +136 moneyline (at DraftKings) may be a bit bold for a perfectly-middling team, sitting third in the NL Central at 44-47, a full 8.5 games behind the Brewers.

The more conservative run line provides more value, certainly when Myers is looking more understood by the Major Leagues, as his pitches are seen that much more.

Pirates vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)

Pirates +1.5

Tobias Myers Under 16.5 outs

Bryan Reynolds Home Run

+1,000 at BetRivers

Myers has exceeded this outs prop in five of his last six starts. But he has not been doing it by much. In his last five starts, Myers has thrown exactly six innings (18 outs) in three of them and reached a 19th out in one more.

Preferably, this prop would be Under 17.5 outs, but not all books offer this prop in conjunction with the +1.5 run line, forcing us to use BetRivers and this reduced outs prop. It does not scare us off, though, in part because no Brewers reliever was taxed yesterday in that 12-2 blowout. Four relievers entered the game, but none threw more than 19 pitches, each just one low-leverage inning.

Some of that damage came courtesy of Bryan Reynolds, hitting his 17th home run of the season and ninth in the last month. No bat in Pittsburgh’s lineup deserves more trust right now.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Pirates vs Brewers odds

Pirates vs Brewers live odds

Pirates vs Brewers opening odds

• Run line: Pittsburgh +1.5 (-176) | Milwaukee -1.5 (+146) 
• Moneyline: Pittsburgh +128 | Milwaukee -152
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-122)

Pirates vs Brewers spread and Over/Under analysis

• Before last night’s rout, this run line opened with the Pirates strongly expected to stay within a run, but that juice diminished overnight.
  
  
• The Pirates have been underdogs in their last six games against the Brewers, going 2-4 outright but covering the run line in four of those games.
  
  
• This total never moved off 8.5 runs, but the juice increased throughout Tuesday evening and Wednesday, arguing it is more likely than not to hit the Over.

Pirates vs Brewers trend

Pittsburgh has covered the first five innings run line in 30 of its last 47 games (+19%). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Brewers

Pirates vs Brewers game info

Pirates vs Brewers latest injuries

Pirates vs Brewers weather

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